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India has launched a pioneering initiative that marks a paradigm shift in agricultural planning and climate risk management. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) has implemented the country’s first-of-its-kind AI-based weather forecasting program aimed at empowering farmers with timely and accurate monsoon information. This initiative has reached 3.8 crore farmers across 13 states, positioning India as a global leader in applying artificial intelligence to agriculture.

Transforming Weather Forecasting through AI

Traditionally, Indian farmers depend heavily on the monsoon for Kharif cultivation — a critical determinant of rural livelihoods. Unpredictable rainfall patterns, intensified by climate change, have often disrupted sowing and crop management decisions. To address this, MoAFW harnessed artificial intelligence (AI) models to provide advance and localized monsoon forecasts, disseminated via SMS through the m-Kisan portal.

These AI-based monsoon forecasts were available up to four weeks earlier than usual, allowing farmers to make informed choices on what, when, and how much to plant. The initiative also ensured weekly forecast updates, especially during the 20-day pause in monsoon progression this year, helping farmers adjust operations accordingly.

AI Models and Technological Backbone

The forecasts were generated using a blend of two open-access AI models:

• Google’s Neural General Circulation Model (Neural GCM), and
• ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Rigorous evaluation showed that these models outperformed traditional meteorological forecasts, particularly in predicting the onset and variability of monsoon rainfall at local levels. The initiative represents the first targeted dissemination of AI-based weather forecasts to farmers anywhere in the world.

m-Kisan Portal

The m-Kisan Portal serves as the digital backbone for this outreach. It enables government agencies and research institutions to deliver customized, location-specific, and language-tailored SMS advisories to farmers. Beyond weather forecasts, it also provides guidance on pest management, crop practices, and government schemes, thus strengthening the digital extension ecosystem in Indian agriculture.