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The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired on 5 February 2026, ending the last legally binding nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia.

Context

The expiry of New START marks a major setback to global nuclear arms control. For the first time since 1972, there are no legally enforceable limits on U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arsenals, raising concerns over arms racing, miscalculation, and erosion of nuclear deterrence stability.

Together, the United States and Russia possess about 87% of the world’s nuclear warheads, making bilateral arms control central to global strategic stability.

What is the New START Treaty?

Background

• START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) framework began during the Cold War.
• START-I: Signed in 1991 between the US and USSR; entered into force in 1994.
• Followed by SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty).
• New START:
  • Signed in 2010
  • Entered into force in 2011
  • Extended in 2021 for five years until 2026

Parties Involved

• United States
• Russia

Key Provisions of New START

Arms Limitations

The treaty imposed verifiable ceilings on strategic nuclear forces:

• 700 deployed:
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)
  • Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs)
  • Heavy bombers
• 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads
• 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers

Verification Mechanism

• On-site inspections
• Data exchange and notifications
• Transparency to reduce mistrust and miscalculation

Scope

• Covered long-range strategic weapons capable of striking critical targets such as:
  • Command centres
  • Infrastructure
  • Population hubs

Suspension and Collapse

• In 2023, Russia suspended participation amid the Ukraine war.
• Inspections and data sharing were halted.
• Negotiations for a post-New START framework stalled (2024–25) due to:
  • Strategic mistrust
  • Disagreements over missile defence
  • Scope of future limits
• The treaty formally expired on 5 February 2026.

Sources of Strategic Friction

• U.S. missile defence systems
• Conventional prompt-strike capabilities
• Russian development of advanced weapons:
  • Kinzhal hypersonic missile
  • Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle

Both sides viewed each other’s capabilities as destabilising, undermining arms control confidence.

Global Implications of New START Expiry

• Unconstrained nuclear arsenals of US and Russia
• Higher risks of:
  • Arms buildup
  • Strategic miscalculation
  • Crisis escalation
• Weakens prospects for:
  • Future bilateral arms reduction
  • Multilateral arms control
• Complicates efforts to include China and other nuclear powers in future frameworks
• Undermines the global non-proliferation architecture

Global Nuclear Arms Control Frameworks

1. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), 1968

• Prevents spread of nuclear weapons
• Promotes disarmament and peaceful nuclear energy
• Recognises five Nuclear Weapon States (NWS):
  • US, Russia, UK, France, China

2. Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 1996

• Prohibits nuclear test explosions
• Not yet in force

3. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), 2017

• Bans use, possession, testing and transfer of nuclear weapons
• Not supported by nuclear-armed states