In News:

On April 1, 2025, India and China marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations with the exchange of congratulatory messages between President DroupadiMurmu and President Xi Jinping. Both leaders emphasized the need to deepen cooperation, manage differences strategically, and work jointly for regional and global stability. Xi referred to the bilateral relationship as a “Dragon-Elephant Tango,” symbolizing coordinated progress between two Asian giants.

Significance of the 75th Anniversary

The commemoration marks a diplomatic milestone for two ancient civilizations and modern emerging powers, both key members of the Global South. It offers a timely opportunity to recalibrate relations, especially after recent tensions such as the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. Xi called for enhanced “strategic mutual trust” and deeper coordination on global affairs, reflecting a shared responsibility in shaping the international order.

President Murmu and PM Modi stressed multipolarity, stability, and peaceful coexistence. Notably, over 70,000 visas were issued to Indians in early 2025, indicating a revival in people-to-people exchanges. Talks in March 2025 focused on border management and resumption of cultural and religious exchanges, including the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.

Historical Overview

India was the first non-socialist country to recognize the People’s Republic of China in 1950. The 1954 Panchsheel Agreement promoted peaceful coexistence. However, the 1962 war over the unresolved border disputes—especially in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh—remains a lasting legacy of mistrust.

Ties normalized in the 1980s, with Rajiv Gandhi’s 1988 visit paving the way for diplomatic mechanisms like the Special Representatives (SR) dialogue and Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC). The 2000s saw robust economic engagement, with bilateral trade reaching $138.5 billion by 2024. Both nations became pivotal members of BRICS, SCO, and G20.

Areas of Cooperation

• Multilateral Platforms: India and China coordinate in BRICS, SCO, and on Global South agendas, especially climate finance and equitable development.
• Economic Ties: Despite border frictions, trade remains resilient. China is India’s largest trading partner.
• Cultural Diplomacy: Student exchanges, art exhibitions, and religious pilgrimages continue.
• Public Diplomacy: Diplomatic dialogues, resumed air links, and cooperation on trans-border rivers underscore confidence-building efforts.

Points of Divergence

• Border Dispute: The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains contentious, especially post-Galwan 2020.
• Strategic Mistrust: China’s ties with Pakistan and presence in the Indian Ocean, as well as its Belt and Road Initiative (excluding India), fuel rivalry.
• Trade Imbalance: India’s import-heavy trade with China leads to a significant deficit.
• Perception Gap: India’s push for strategic autonomy contrasts with China’s assertive regional posturing.

Way Forward

• Strengthen Strategic Dialogue: Revive and regularize SR-level border talks and WMCC meetings.
• Rebuild Trust: Encourage military confidence-building measures and cooperative ventures in non-sensitive areas.
• Balance Trade: Promote diversification and attract Chinese investments aligned with India’s interests.
• Enhance People-to-People Ties: Facilitate educational, cultural, and tourism exchanges.
• Promote Multilateralism: Collaborate on global issues such as climate change, health security, and WTO reforms.

Conclusion

India-China relations remain a blend of cooperation and contestation. The 75th anniversary provides an inflection point to transcend border hostilities and engage in constructive diplomacy. A balanced and long-term perspective, as advocated by both nations, can shift the narrative from conflict to coordinated coexistence—true to the spirit of the “Dragon-Elephant Tango.”

Context:

Nearly two decades after the landmark India–US Civil Nuclear Agreement (123 Agreement) was signed in 2007, a major operational milestone has been achieved. In March 2025, the US Department of Energy (DoE) granted regulatory clearance under “10CFR810” of the US Atomic Energy Act (1954), allowing Holtec International, a US-based nuclear engineering firm, to transfer unclassified Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology to three Indian private entities: Holtec Asia (its subsidiary), Tata Consulting Engineers (TCE), and Larsen & Toubro (L&T).

Key Regulatory and Safeguard Provisions

• Authorization Duration: 10 years, subject to a five-year review.
• Safeguards: Technology to be used only for peaceful nuclear activities under IAEA safeguards.
• Restrictions:
  • No retransfer to other Indian or foreign entities without US approval.
  • Prohibited for military/naval propulsion or enrichment purposes.
  • No access to Sensitive Nuclear Technology.
• Compliance: Holtec is required to file quarterly progress reports to the US DoE.

Strategic and Technological Significance for India

• Modernizing India's Nuclear Fleet: India's nuclear program has traditionally relied on Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) using natural uranium. The transfer of SMR technology based on Pressurised Water Reactors (PWRs) represents a shift towards the global mainstream of nuclear reactor technology.
• Boost to Domestic Manufacturing: Collaboration with Indian firms like L&T and TCE can localize manufacturing and engineering, promoting Make in India and self-reliance in nuclear energy technology.
• Entry into Global SMR Supply Chain: This development aligns India with an emerging global trend, as SMRs (30–300 MWe) are increasingly viewed as crucial for decarbonization and energy security.
• Strategic Counterbalance to China: As China advances its SMR technology for energy diplomacy in the Global South, this India–US initiative presents a geopolitical counterweight, especially as both nations face challenges in independently competing with China’s scale and state-led investments.

Legal and Policy Bottlenecks

• Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act, 2010: Cited by foreign companies as a barrier due to concerns about supplier liability in case of accidents.
• Atomic Energy Act, 1962: Needs amendments to permit private sector participation in nuclear generation, currently reserved for public sector undertakings like NPCIL and NTPC.
• Despite Holtec's request, these PSUs were not included in the initial authorization due to pending non-proliferation assurances from the Indian government. However, they may be added later, contingent on further diplomatic progress.

Way Forward and Future Prospects

• Holtec’s Expansion Plans: Its non-nuclear manufacturing unit in Dahej, Gujarat is poised for expansion, with a potential doubling of its workforce once SMR manufacturing begins.
• Partnership Pipeline:
  • TCE for engineering design.
  • L&T for high-precision nuclear component manufacturing.
  • Future engagement with NPCIL and NTPC as operators of Holtec’s SMR-300 reactors.
• Clean Energy Strategy: SMRs are positioned as a key component of India's low-carbon energy transition, addressing both rising power demands and global climate commitments.

Conclusion

The US’s clearance for technology transfer to Indian private firms marks a pivotal operational step in the long-stalled India–US civil nuclear partnership. It opens the door for India to enter the global SMR market, boosts its domestic nuclear industry, and strengthens strategic cooperation with the US. However, legal reforms and institutional readiness remain critical for realizing the full potential of this deal.

In News:

India’s northeast has long faced logistical isolation due to its geographical constraints and overdependence on the narrow Siliguri Corridor, also known as the Chicken’s Neck. A recent strategic initiative aims to transform this scenario through the creation of a multi-modal connectivity route that bypasses Bangladesh and directly links the Northeast to the sea via Myanmar and Kolkata. This development gains added relevance in light of recent remarks by Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who described Northeast India as “landlocked” and dependent solely on Dhaka for maritime access—a claim that India seeks to counter through tangible connectivity upgrades.

Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP)

At the heart of this initiative lies the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), a flagship project under India’s Act East Policy, designed to connect the eastern seaport of Kolkata to the landlocked Northeast through Myanmar. The project includes:

• Sea Leg: Kolkata Port to Sittwe Port in Myanmar (~539 km).
• Inland Waterway: From Sittwe to Paletwa via the Kaladan River (~158 km).
• Road Leg in Myanmar: Paletwa to Zorinpui on the India-Myanmar border (~110 km).
• Indian Extension: Zorinpui to Lawngtlai and Aizawl in Mizoram, connecting to the national highway network.

This corridor not only reduces reliance on routes through Bangladesh but also serves as a strategic counterbalance in India’s regional geopolitics, particularly in strengthening ties with Southeast Asia and enhancing its maritime influence in the Bay of Bengal.

Strategic Shillong-Silchar Highway

Complementing the KMTTP is the construction of a 166.8 km four-lane high-speed highway from Mawlyngkhung (near Shillong) to Panchgram (near Silchar) along NH-6. This is the first high-speed corridor in the North-East and the first in a hilly terrain, and is slated for completion by 2030. The project is being developed under the Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) at a cost of ?22,864 crore, with implementation by NHIDCL for the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH).

The highway will include:

• 19 major bridges, 153 minor bridges, 326 culverts
• 22 underpasses, 26 overpasses, 8 subways, and 34 viaducts

It will reduce travel time between Shillong and Silchar from 8.5 to 5 hours and act as a crucial link to states like Mizoram, Tripura, and Manipur. More significantly, it will integrate with the Kaladan route, offering a direct link to Kolkata via Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal.

Strategic and Economic Significance

This integrated connectivity initiative holds multi-dimensional importance:

• Reduces dependency on Bangladesh and the Siliguri Corridor
• Enhances trade and people-to-people ties with ASEAN nations
• Strengthens regional integration under the Act East Policy
• Boosts economic development in the North-East through improved logistics
• Improves India’s strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific and Bay of Bengal

In conclusion, the Kolkata-Northeast sea route and supporting infrastructure like the Shillong-Silchar highway represent a decisive step towards bridging geographical constraints, boosting regional development, and reinforcing India’s strategic autonomy in the eastern frontier.

In News:

The renewed US military offensive against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen reflects intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and surrounding West Asian region. In early 2025, the US launched over 40 airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled areas, including Sanaa, Saada, and the strategic port city of Hodeidah. The escalation follows months of Houthi attacks on international shipping, ostensibly in solidarity with Palestinians during the ongoing Gaza conflict.

Strategic Background and US Objectives

Houthi disruptions to maritime trade in the Red Sea—through drone, missile, and small-boat attacks—have endangered key shipping lanes through Bab-el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. With nearly 15% of global seaborne trade passing through this corridor, including vital energy supplies, their actions have compelled ships to reroute around Africa, escalating shipping costs and global inflation risks.

Former US President Donald Trump, now leading a second administration, has vowed decisive retaliation. He re-designated the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in early 2025 and emphasized that attacks by the Houthis would be interpreted as attacks by Iran, warning Tehran of dire consequences. Trump’s administration asserts that the airstrikes are aimed at restoring freedom of navigation and deterring Iranian influence in the region. However, critics argue this could be a calibrated signal to avoid direct confrontation with Iran while maintaining pressure ahead of potential nuclear negotiations.

Regional and International Dynamics

The Houthis, officially called Ansar Allah, have displayed remarkable resilience, withstanding over 20,000 airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition since 2015. Their asymmetric warfare tactics, inspired by groups like Hezbollah, rely on mobility, modular units, and advanced missile and drone technology. Despite repeated bombardments, they retain operational capabilities, evidenced by continued attacks on US naval assets and commercial vessels.

Although Tehran remains the group's principal backer, Houthi ties extend to Russia and China. Beijing, by purchasing nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports in 2024, indirectly funds the Houthi supply chain. Many of the group’s anti-ship cruise missiles are derivatives of older Chinese designs, while Moscow reportedly provides targeting intelligence and small arms. This triangulation complicates US efforts, making the Houthis part of a broader anti-Western strategic bloc.

Regional Responses and the Humanitarian Toll

Interestingly, major Arab states, including Saudi Arabia—formerly the Houthis' chief adversary—have distanced themselves from the US offensive. Riyadh advised restraint in early 2024 and has reportedly avoided providing logistical support for the strikes. This signals a regional fatigue with military solutions and a possible pivot toward political engagement.

On the ground, the strikes have intensified the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. The Houthi-run health ministry reports at least 31 deaths and over 100 injuries. Yet, the group remains defiant, pledging to continue targeting vessels linked to the US, UK, or Israel until the Gaza blockade is lifted.

Conclusion

The Houthi-US conflict in the Red Sea epitomizes the nexus of regional geopolitics, maritime security, and great power rivalries. For India, which depends heavily on Suez Canal routes for trade and energy imports, developments in this theatre bear close watching. A prolonged conflict could disrupt global supply chains, heighten oil prices, and challenge freedom of navigation principles, central to India’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

In News:

India and New Zealand have officially resumed negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) after a prolonged hiatus since 2015. This strategic move aims to enhance bilateral trade, deepen economic interdependence, and strengthen regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

Background and Significance

The FTA talks, first initiated in 2010, were stalled due to differences, particularly over India’s high tariffs on New Zealand’s dairy and agricultural exports. The revival of discussions during New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's official visit to India in 2025 signals a renewed commitment towards building a balanced, ambitious, and mutually beneficial trade framework.

The bilateral trade relationship, though modest, has shown robust growth. In 2023–24, India exported goods worth $538 million to New Zealand and imported $335 million, generating a trade surplus of $203 million. By December 2024, exports rose by 21.49%, and imports surged by 78.72%, narrowing the trade surplus to $33 million.

Key Objectives of the India–New Zealand FTA

• Enhance supply chain integration.
• Improve market access for goods, services, and investments.
• Strengthen economic resilience and bilateral commercial ties.
• Facilitate trade through the Authorized Economic Operators Mutual Recognition Arrangement (AEO-MRA).

India’s major exports to New Zealand include pharmaceuticals, machinery, textiles, and precious stones, while imports largely consist of wool, aluminum, fruits, and steel products.

Strategic and Geopolitical Dimensions

Beyond economics, the agreement holds strategic significance:

• A defense cooperation MoU was signed to institutionalize military engagements and promote maritime collaboration.
• New Zealand expressed intent to join India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI).
• Both nations pledged support for a free, open, inclusive Indo-Pacific, aligning with the UNCLOS-based rules-based international order.
• New Zealand reiterated support for India’s permanent membership in the reformed UNSC and entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Sectoral Cooperation and Emerging Areas

• Climate Change and Sustainability:
  • New Zealand joined India-led initiatives like the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).
  • Both countries committed to joint action under the Paris Agreement and Sendai Framework.
• Education and Skill Development:
  • A renewed Education Cooperation Arrangement was signed to boost academic partnerships, student mobility, and vocational training.
  • Plans are underway to commemorate 100 years of sports relations in 2026, coupled with a new MoU on sports cooperation.
• Diaspora and People-to-People Ties:
  • The Indian diaspora forms 6% of New Zealand’s population, playing a pivotal role in cultural and economic relations.
  • India raised concerns regarding pro-Khalistan activities, and New Zealand assured cooperation in addressing such issues.

Opportunities and Complementarities

India’s Strategic Importance to New Zealand:

• Large market with a growing middle class and rising demand for dairy, meat, and high-value agricultural exports.
• Largest source of skilled migrants and second-largest source of international students.
• Booming digital economy offers collaboration potential in fintech, AI, and digital services.

New Zealand’s Relevance to India:

• Expertise in sustainable farming and dairy technology supports India’s agricultural reforms.
• Recognized climate tech sector aligns with India’s clean energy transition.
• Potential buyer of India’s defense equipment and surveillance systems, enhancing maritime security amid Indo-Pacific tensions.

Challenges in Bilateral Relations

• Stalled FTA negotiations due to tariff sensitivities, particularly in the dairy sector.
• Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) affecting Indian exports like fruits and vegetables.
• Low trade volumes and limited awareness of New Zealand’s economic strengths among Indian businesses.
• Divergences in geopolitical alignments, with New Zealand’s reliance on China creating potential strategic friction.

Way Forward

• Conclude FTA negotiations through dialogue and sectoral agreements in pharmaceuticals, technology, and horticulture.
• Consider an interim Early Harvest Agreement, akin to India–Australia ECTA, to fast-track gains.
• Enhance market access by reducing NTBs, fast-tracking Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRAs), and organizing trade expos and B2B interactions.
• Leverage climate and renewable energy cooperation, strengthen defense collaboration, and institutionalize maritime security mechanisms.

Conclusion

The renewed India–New Zealand FTA negotiations mark a pivotal step in recalibrating bilateral economic and strategic relations. Anchored in democratic values and shared Indo-Pacific interests, the partnership is poised to evolve into a multi-dimensional engagement encompassing trade, technology, climate resilience, and defense cooperation. The agreement, if concluded, could serve as a model for equitable North–South economic partnerships in a multipolar world order.

In News:

India and Mauritius have elevated their bilateral relationship to an Enhanced Strategic Partnership, underscoring deep-rooted historical ties, shared cultural linkages, and growing strategic alignment in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This elevation came during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Mauritius in March 2025, marking a new phase in India’s engagement with the Global South through the unveiling of the MAHASAGAR Vision—Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions.

Key Agreements and Strategic Cooperation

A total of eight bilateral agreements were signed, focusing on trade, defense, maritime security, financial crimes, and developmental cooperation. A landmark agreement was the signing of India’s first-ever rupee-denominated Line of Credit to Mauritius, worth ?487.6 crore, aimed at upgrading the island’s water supply system. This also complements a broader move toward trade settlement in local currencies, reducing dependence on foreign exchange and enhancing resilience in bilateral commerce.

In the realm of maritime security, the partnership now includes expanded white shipping information sharing, enhanced joint maritime surveillance, and greater utilization of strategic facilities on Agalega Island, developed with Indian assistance. India reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Mauritius’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and supporting the establishment of a police academy and a national maritime information-sharing centre.

India also extended support to Mauritius’s claim over the Chagos Archipelago, opposing colonial remnants and reinforcing its consistent stance on sovereignty and decolonization in global forums.

MAHASAGAR Vision and Global South Outreach

The newly unveiled MAHASAGAR initiative builds upon India’s earlier SAGAR doctrine, broadening the framework to include developmental cooperation, technology transfer, capacity building, concessional finance, and joint security across the Global South. It strengthens India’s position as a net security provider and first responder in the IOR, evident from its assistance during Cyclone Chido and the Wakashio oil spill.

The visit also witnessed the inauguration of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Public Service and Innovation, a health centre, and 20 community projects built with Indian grants. Further, India announced its support for constructing a new Parliament building in Mauritius, symbolizing democratic solidarity.

Cultural and Economic Pillars

Mauritius hosts a large Indian diaspora (around 70% of its population), maintaining strong cultural, religious, and linguistic ties with India. Historical bonds, such as Mahatma Gandhi’s 1901 visit, continue to influence people-to-people relations. Economically, Mauritius serves as a gateway to Africa, benefiting from India’s rising trade and investment footprint, particularly through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

India is one of Mauritius’s top trading partners and a major source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), with Mauritius being the second-largest source of FDI into India in FY 2023–24.

Conclusion

The India–Mauritius partnership exemplifies a holistic model of South-South cooperation, driven by shared values, strategic convergence, and mutual development. In the evolving Indo-Pacific framework, it reinforces India's Act East and Extended Neighbourhood policies while bolstering regional stability and economic integration.

In News:

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been a major development partner for India, contributing over $2.8 billion in Official Development Assistance (ODA) since 2001. While initial assistance focused on food aid, recent decades saw a shift toward public health, environmental sustainability, digital infrastructure, and institutional capacity building.

Between 2022 and 2024, India received substantial aid from USAID — $228 million in 2022, $175 million in 2023, and $151 million in 2024 (as of December). A significant portion of this funding targeted health and population programs, including polio eradication, maternal and child health, tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS, and Covid-19 response.

In 2022 alone, $120 million was allocated to Covid-19 control, alongside support for healthcare infrastructure and awareness campaigns.

USAID also supported India’s environmental goals, providing funds for air pollution control, clean water initiatives, and climate resilience, with $17.12 million allocated in 2024. Additionally, USAID backed India's technological advancement by exploring secure 5G Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) systems, aligning with the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s influence.

However, the January 20, 2025 Executive Order by the U.S. administration directed a halt to foreign aid and restructuring of USAID. Although initially stayed by a U.S. Federal Court in February, the Supreme Court’s March 5 verdict upheld the aid cuts, jeopardizing thousands of ongoing development projects globally, including in India.

This decision critically affects India’s public health landscape. For instance, the ‘Breaking the Barriers’ TB awareness program in Karnataka, Bihar, Telangana, and Assam — funded with $7 million between 2022–23 — is being discontinued. The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), another major source of HIV/AIDS support, also faces disruption, risking higher infection and mortality rates. The cuts particularly threaten NGOs like Karnataka Health Promotion Trust (KHPT), which relied on USAID for operational continuity.

Beyond health, the withdrawal of USAID support may create a strategic vacuum in South Asia, enabling greater Chinese geopolitical and economic influence. Legal uncertainty around development aid has also raised concerns about the stability of global health and environmental partnerships.

Way Forward for India

• Diversify donor engagement: India must strengthen development ties with consistent partners like Japan ($2.97B in 2022), the EU ($383.5M), and Germany ($235M).
• Increase domestic investments in public health, sanitation, and clean energy to reduce dependence on external aid.
• Boost private sector and philanthropic partnerships to ensure continuity of key health and environmental programs.
• Strengthen indigenous R&D capacity, especially in digital infrastructure and vaccine development.
• Diplomatic dialogue with U.S. policymakers can explore possibilities for reinstating targeted support.

Conclusion

The scaling back of USAID poses significant challenges to India's public health, environmental sustainability, and strategic autonomy. However, it also presents an opportunity for India to reinforce its developmental sovereignty through diversified funding, innovation, and international cooperation.

In News:

India and Qatar have significantly deepened their bilateral relationship, particularly with the recent state visit of Qatar’s Amir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, to India. This visit marked a pivotal moment, as both countries elevated their ties to a "strategic partnership," exploring avenues for collaboration in energy, trade, and diplomacy.

Evolution of India-Qatar Relations

India's relationship with the Gulf region is multifaceted, encompassing economic, cultural, and people-to-people ties. Qatar holds a special place in India’s foreign policy due to its strategic position in the Middle East, its influence in the LNG market, and its robust ties with both Western powers and regional players such as Israel and Afghanistan. As one of the largest suppliers of LNG to India, Qatar’s energy significance is paramount.

India has consistently prioritized relations with the Gulf, with the Prime Minister placing special emphasis on strengthening ties. The recent visits by India’s External Affairs Minister to Qatar underscore the diplomatic importance of this relationship.

Key Outcomes of the Amir’s Visit

The visit of Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani resulted in several key agreements and developments:

• Strategic Partnership:India and Qatar upgraded their relationship to a "strategic partnership," signaling enhanced cooperation across various domains such as energy security, trade, and investment. This move aligns Qatar with India’s other strategic Gulf partners like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, reinforcing regional cooperation under the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
• Economic and Trade Cooperation:The two countries committed to doubling bilateral trade from $14 billion to $28 billion over the next five years. Qatar also pledged $10 billion in new investments in India, particularly in the infrastructure, energy, and technology sectors. Several agreements on economic cooperation, youth affairs, and double taxation avoidance were also signed, aimed at facilitating business activities.
• Energy Cooperation:A landmark agreement between QatarEnergy and India’s Petronet LNG extended their LNG supply deal for 20 years, marking the largest-ever LNG agreement. This deal secures India’s long-term energy needs and diversifies its energy sources, ensuring stable pricing for LNG imports.
• Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Possibilities:Discussions were held on a potential India-Qatar Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to boost trade relations. While Qatar has existing FTAs with countries like China, a similar agreement with India could further enhance trade and investment flows. However, India must ensure safeguards to prevent the dumping of third-party goods through Qatar.
• Resolution of Diplomatic Setback:Bilateral relations were strained in 2022 following the arrest of eight Indian Navy personnel in Qatar on espionage charges. The Amir’s decision to pardon these individuals removed a significant diplomatic roadblock, improving goodwill between the two countries.

Challenges and the Way Forward

Despite the positive developments, challenges persist:

• Economic and Trade Barriers:Non-tariff barriers and bureaucratic hurdles remain significant obstacles to smoother business transactions. Moreover, Qatar’s investments in India are still limited compared to other Gulf nations, despite its substantial sovereign wealth fund. India must encourage greater Qatari participation in sectors like infrastructure, startups, and energy exploration.
• Political and Security Risks:The volatile security situation in the Middle East, particularly tensions between Iran and Israel, poses risks to India’s energy supply chains. Any diplomatic tensions between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors could indirectly affect India’s trade interests.
• Labor and Migration Issues:India must continue to advocate for better working conditions and legal protections for Indian workers in Qatar. Ensuring the welfare of Indian expatriates, including seamless remittance flows and social security benefits, is essential for strengthening bilateral ties.

Conclusion

The elevation of India-Qatar relations to a strategic partnership marks a new chapter in their ties, positioning Qatar as a critical partner in India’s energy security and trade. As India’s influence in the Middle East and global energy markets grows, its relationship with Qatar will play an increasingly important role in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape. The continued focus on economic cooperation, energy security, and labor welfare will be vital to sustaining and expanding this crucial partnership.

In News:

The recent visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India, marked a significant recalibration in India-EU relations. Amid global geopolitical flux—characterized by U.S.-Europe divergences, China’s assertiveness, and disrupted supply chains—India and the EU are deepening cooperation in trade, technology, climate, and security. This partnership is crucial for regional stability and shaping a multipolar, rules-based global order.

Strategic and Economic Dimensions

• Trade and Investment:The EU is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for 12.2% of India’s total trade in 2023. Bilateral goods trade reached $135 billion (FY 2023–24), and services trade stood at $53 billion. The EU is the second-largest source of FDI into India ($117.4 billion since 2000), while Indian FDI to the EU was $40 billion. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks, revived in 2021, aim to resolve tariff and regulatory barriers in sectors like automobiles, dairy, pharma, and IT services.
• Technology and Digital Cooperation:The India-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC), launched in 2022, promotes collaboration in semiconductors, AI, clean energy, and resilient supply chains. Key developments include MoUs on semiconductor R&D and high-performance computing. Challenges remain, particularly around EU data adequacy under GDPR, which affects Indian digital exporters.
• Green Transition and Energy Security:The EU-India Clean Energy and Climate Partnership focuses on renewable energy, smart grids, and sustainable cities. A €1 billion European Investment Bank fund supports green hydrogen projects. India’s participation in European Hydrogen Week 2024 signals growing collaboration in clean energy. Initiatives like SWITCH-Asia promote sustainable consumption and circular economy practices.
• Maritime and Defense Cooperation:Under the ESIWA framework, India and the EU are expanding maritime security ties. The EU has stationed a liaison officer at India’s Information Fusion Centre (Gurugram), and the first joint naval exercise in the Gulf of Guinea (2023) emphasized Indo-Pacific cooperation. However, defense ties remain limited due to India's stronger military relationships with Russia and the U.S.

Institutional and Societal Ties

India-EU relations date back to 1962 and were elevated to a Strategic Partnership in 2004. The Roadmap to 2025, adopted in 2020, prioritizes digital transformation, climate action, and multilateralism. The TTC’s recent meetings reaffirm commitment to tech and trade collaboration.

People-to-people ties are strengthening. Indians received over 20% of EU Blue Cards (2023–24). Over 6,000 Indian students have benefitted from Erasmus scholarships, and 2,700 researchers from Marie Sk?odowska-Curie Actions.

Key Challenges

• Stalled FTA Talks over tariffs and market access.
• Regulatory barriers under SPS and TBT norms.
• Data governance divergence due to lack of EU data adequacy for India.
• Foreign policy misalignments, especially over Russia-Ukraine.
• Fragmented defense engagement due to EU’s limited commitment.

Way Forward

India and the EU must resolve FTA hurdles, negotiate a data-sharing framework, align Indo-Pacific strategies, and invest in alternative supply chains via IMEC. Enhanced cooperation in green tech, cybersecurity, and digital infrastructure is key. India must also reform its regulatory landscape to attract EU tech and manufacturing investments.

Conclusion

India-EU ties are entering a transformative phase. Anchored in shared democratic values and strategic interests, the partnership can promote multipolarity, sustainable development, and a resilient global governance architecture.

Context:

The recurring arrests of Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy in the Palk Bay region underscore a complex and unresolved bilateral issue, rooted in historical practices, ecological concerns, and geopolitical sensitivities. The most recent incidents in early 2025 have intensified the diplomatic and political discourse between the two neighbours.

Background and Origin of the Dispute

The core of the India–Sri Lanka fishing dispute lies in the contested fishing rights in the Palk Bay, a narrow strip of sea separating Tamil Nadu from northern Sri Lanka. The 1974 and 1976 maritime boundary agreements, particularly the ceding of Katchatheevu Island to Sri Lanka, formalized the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). While Indian fishermen were permitted traditional access to the island for specific purposes, the agreements curtailed their fishing activities across the newly delineated boundary.

However, Tamil Nadu fishermen have historically fished in these waters, and the IMBL has not fully erased traditional patterns. The situation is worsened by ecological pressures on Indian fishing grounds, pushing fishermen into Sri Lankan waters.

Key Issues Involved

• Violation of IMBL and Traditional Rights:Indian fishermen often assert customary fishing rights across the IMBL, which clashes with Sri Lanka’s assertion of sovereignty over its territorial waters. Many crossings occur unintentionally due to poor navigation, engine failures, or inclement weather.
• Bottom Trawling and Environmental Concerns:The use of bottom trawlers by Indian fishermen is a major point of contention. This method, which scrapes the seabed, damages marine ecosystems and depletes resources, affecting both nations' long-term fisheries sustainability. Sri Lanka has banned bottom trawling and views it as ecological exploitation and illegal fishing.
• Security and Sovereignty Sensitivities:Sri Lanka perceives these incursions not only as violations of maritime boundaries but also as potential national security threats, recalling past concerns over Tamil militant movements operating from the sea.
• Recurrent Arrests and Humanitarian Concerns:The frequent arrests, imprisonment, and imposition of heavy fines on Indian fishermen have humanitarian and political implications. Often, fishing boats are not returned even after the release of the crew, causing further livelihood losses.

Efforts at Resolution

• Diplomatic Engagement:The issue has prompted high-level political intervention, with the Tamil Nadu government urging the Union Government for effective measures and the convening of a Joint Working Group (JWG) to address the issue diplomatically.
• Livelihood-Based Approaches:Both countries have discussed alternatives to resolve the crisis humanely, including exploring sustainable fishing practices, alternate employment, and deep-sea fishing training.
• Technological Interventions:Use of GPS-based tracking systems and awareness programs aim to prevent inadvertent border crossings and encourage responsible fishing.
• People-to-People Dialogues:Calls for direct interaction between fishermen communities from both nations have been made, suggesting that grassroots engagement may ease tensions and promote mutual understanding.

International Legal Framework

• UNCLOS (1982):Provides legal clarity on maritime boundaries and responsibilities, but emphasizes mutual respect for sovereign rights and sustainable resource use.
• UN Fish Stocks Agreement (1995):Encourages cooperation in conserving transboundary fish stocks, suggesting the role of Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) in managing shared marine resources.

Conclusion

The India–Sri Lanka fishing dispute in the Palk Bay is not merely a bilateral maritime boundary issue; it is a convergence of historical rights, ecological degradation, livelihood dependence, and strategic concerns. While both countries have taken steps towards conflict management, a long-term solution lies in cooperative marine resource governance, joint monitoring, and community-centric diplomacy. Resolving this issue through dialogue, sustainable practices, and mutual sensitivity is essential to safeguard both bilateral relations and the rights and livelihoods of coastal communities.

In News:

Context:

India and the United States have reaffirmed their commitment to fully realise the 123 Civil Nuclear Agreement, marking a major push to revive progress two decades after the pact was signed in 2007.

Key Gains for India

• Technology Transfer & Localisation:The partnership envisions joint construction of US-designed nuclear reactors in India, incorporating large-scale localisation and technology transfer, reversing the US's usual "manufacture-at-home" stance.
• Upgrading India’s Nuclear Capacity:India aims to shift from PHWRs (Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors) to globally dominant PWRs (Pressurised Water Reactors). This will allow India to scale capacity addition and modernise its nuclear fleet.
• Entry into Small Modular Reactors (SMRs):
  • SMRs (30–300 MWe) are compact, scalable reactors viewed as essential for future clean energy demands.
  • India’s Department of Atomic Energy is exploring collaboration with Holtec International (USA) for joint manufacturing and deployment.
  • Holtec's SMR-300, supported by the US Department of Energy with $116 million, is under design review in the UK and Canada.
• Strategic Counter to China:India–US joint ventures in SMRs could counter China’s rising influence in the Global South through its aggressive SMR diplomacy.

Economic & Industrial Impacts

• Holtec plans a nuclear technology campus in Pune and a specialty manufacturing plant in India.
• Existing facility in Dahej, Gujarat, can double workforce if plans are approved.
• Legal reforms in India are being considered to attract investments from Western and Middle Eastern markets into the nuclear sector.

India: Leading the Next Phase of Global Outsourcing (Deloitte Report)

Key Findings from Deloitte’s ‘The Outsourcing Compass’ (2025)

• Growing Demand:
  • 81% of global organizations plan to increase outsourcing over the next 3–5 years.
  • India continues to lead as a global outsourcing hub, with a projected rise as the world’s 3rd-largest economy by 2027.
• Shift in Outsourcing Models:
  • Transition from back-office services to strategic, high-value functions like product development, AI/GenAI support, and brand management.
  • 98% of firms depend on Indian service providers for AI and GenAI capabilities.
• Modern Contracting Approaches:
  • 36% prefer outcome-based contracts over traditional FTE-based models.
  • AI-specific clauses are being added to outsourcing contracts to enhance tracking and cost control.
• Strategic Collaborations & Cost Efficiency:
  • Strategic-niche partnerships yield 10–25% annual cost savings; some report 15–35% savings.
  • 70% of organizations work with non-traditional providers to access innovative technologies.
• Evolving Operating Models:
  • 55% use Global Business Services (GBS) centers for oversight; execution by third-party providers.
  • 35% adopt Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) models to scale up while retaining control.
• Robust Governance Structures:
  • 45% of mature outsourcing firms operate Vendor Management Offices (VMOs) to manage risks and enhance effectiveness.

Why India Remains Preferred:

• A skilled digital workforce, thriving startup ecosystem, policy stability, and advancements in cybersecurity and vendor governance bolster India’s position.

Context:
On January 20, U.S. President Donald Trump, upon beginning his second term, issued an executive order imposing a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance. The directive aimed to reassess the efficiency and alignment of U.S. foreign development programs with its foreign policy priorities. This decision led to an immediate halt in operations of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), with the majority of its 10,000 personnel placed on administrative leave and project funding suspended worldwide.

What is USAID?

• Established in 1961 under President John F. Kennedy through an Act of Congress, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) functions as an independent agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance.
• Its core mission is to promote democratic values, global peace, and prosperity while advancing American national security and economic interests.
• USAID operates in over 100 countries, partnering with governments, NGOs, private firms, and international organizations.
• It offers financial support, technical assistance, and capacity-building across key sectors such as health, education, food security, economic development, humanitarian relief, environmental sustainability, and governance.
• Prominent initiatives include:
  • PEPFAR: A flagship HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment program.
  • Feed the Future: Focused on combating hunger and improving food security.
  • Power Africa: Aimed at expanding electricity access across Africa.
  • Water for the World Act: Enhancing water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure.
• In 2024, USAID disbursed $44.2 billion globally, which accounted for approximately 0.4% of the U.S. federal budget. Notably, the agency contributed to around 42% of all humanitarian aid tracked by the United Nations that year.

Rationale and Political Overtones

The Trump administration justified the freeze as a review for improving programmatic efficiency and ensuring alignment with U.S. strategic interests. However, critics argue the move is politically motivated, targeting Biden-era programs. Elon Musk, heading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), labeled USAID a "criminal organization," while Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated a broader plan for restructuring.

Global Impact of the Freeze

The abrupt suspension of USAID operations threatens development and humanitarian efforts across numerous vulnerable regions. Top recipients like Ukraine, Ethiopia, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen face the sudden withdrawal of critical support in health, food security, disaster relief, and infrastructure.

The United Nations has warned that halting support for HIV/AIDS programs alone could result in over six million deaths within four years. In several African and Middle Eastern nations, the absence of aid could derail long-term projects aimed at poverty alleviation, maternal and child health, vaccination drives, and crisis response mechanisms.

Moreover, the withdrawal risks diminishing the U.S.’s diplomatic influence in the Global South, potentially creating a vacuum for geopolitical competitors such as China, which may expand its presence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Impact on India

USAID's involvement in India dates back to 1951, when President Truman signed the India Emergency Food Aid Act. Over the decades, it evolved from providing food aid to supporting economic reforms, infrastructure, and public health initiatives. However, India’s dependency on USAID has significantly declined in recent years.

In 2024, USAID allocated approximately $79.3 million to India, primarily focused on healthcare, including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, maternal and child health, and immunization programs. This constituted only about 0.2% to 0.4% of USAID’s global disbursement.

While the immediate impact on India may be limited due to reduced reliance and growing self-sufficiency, some ongoing health and sanitation projects could face temporary disruptions. The Indian government and implementing agencies have been directed to suspend USAID-funded operations, raising concerns about the continuity of services for vulnerable populations.

Conclusion and the Way Forward

The freeze on USAID funding reflects a shift in U.S. foreign aid philosophy and signals potential isolationist tendencies. While India may be resilient, many developing nations in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia could witness significant humanitarian and developmental setbacks.

To mitigate the impact, affected countries must:

• Enhance domestic resource mobilization to sustain critical development programs.
• Deepen partnerships with multilateral institutions like the UN, World Bank, and WHO.
• Encourage private sector participation through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives.
• Foster South-South cooperation to promote shared growth models.

The episode underscores the urgent need for the Global South to diversify funding sources and build internal capacities to safeguard developmental progress from geopolitical uncertainties.

In News:

India and France, bound by a deep-rooted strategic partnership since 1998, have expanded cooperation across defence, nuclear energy, space, trade, and culture. In a significant move reflecting shared values and mutual respect, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was invited by French President Emmanuel Macron to co-chair the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris in 2024—marking a pivotal moment in global AI governance and Indo-French relations.

Enduring Strategic Relations

India-France relations are anchored in the principles of strategic autonomy and reciprocal respect. France has consistently stood by India in challenging times—refusing sanctions post-Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998 and maintaining diplomatic engagement during the Emergency in 1976. President Macron’s participation in India’s 2024 Republic Day celebrations underscores the warmth in bilateral ties.

Robust Defence and Technological Cooperation

Defence cooperation forms the backbone of the relationship. Key initiatives include:

• Rafale Fighter Jets: Procurement of 36 Rafales and discussions on 26 Rafale-M jets for the Indian Navy.
• P-75 Scorpene Submarines: Expansion plans include three additional submarines.
• Next-gen Jet Engine Development and a dedicated DRDO office in Paris (2023) to bolster technology collaboration. France’s unique support for Make in India and technology transfer sets it apart, coupled with training programs for Indian personnel.

Expanding Frontiers: AI and Innovation

The Paris AI Summit marked a strategic milestone, with India’s role highlighting its growing global influence in emerging technologies. India presented its flagship IndiaAI Mission—a ?10,371 crore initiative focused on “Making AI in India and Making AI for India,” promoting equitable AI access and innovation.

The Summit, following the UK (2023) and South Korea (2024) AI summits, focused on:

• Public Interest AI
• Future of Work
• Innovation & Culture
• Trust in AI
• Global AI Governance

India advocated responsible AI, inclusive governance, and greater representation of the Global South, emphasizing AI's role in sustainable development and reducing the global AI divide.

Multilateral Engagement and Global Cooperation

India co-chairs the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI) for 2024, reinforcing its commitment to ethical and collaborative AI development. Through the Paris Summit, India contributed to the Leaders' Statement, participated in steering committees, and called for AI democratization aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Beyond AI: Economic and Cultural Synergies

Bilateral trade surpassed $15 billion in 2023–24, with Indian exports at $7.14 billion and imports at $7.97 billion. Key developments:

• India-France CEOs Forum: Focus on defence, renewable energy, pharma, and startups.
• India-France Innovation Year 2026 and inauguration of a new Indian consulate in Marseille.
• Triangular Development Cooperation Initiative: Joint projects in the Indo-Pacific focused on climate and SDG targets.
• Joint visit to the ITER fusion energy project, reflecting shared aspirations for clean energy.

Conclusion

The India-France partnership has matured into a multifaceted global alliance—from defence and climate action to AI leadership and sustainable development. The co-chairing of the AI Summit symbolizes India's rising stature in tech diplomacy and affirms the enduring strategic trust between two democratic powers. For UPSC aspirants, this partnership exemplifies strategic depth, technological collaboration, and global engagement driven by shared values and autonomy.

In News:

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has once again become the epicenter of a severe humanitarian and geopolitical crisis. In early 2025, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-led rebel group allegedly backed by Rwanda, captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.

This strategic and mineral-rich city lies on the eastern border with Rwanda and has historically been a flashpoint in the region. The recent offensive has escalated the violence, displacing over 7,00,000 people, killing more than 2,900, and risking a wider regional conflict.

Historical Roots of the Conflict

The current instability can be traced back to colonial and post-independence ethnic tensions in the Great Lakes region. Under German and Belgian colonial rule, power structures in Rwanda favored the minority Tutsi population, generating long-standing resentment among the Hutus. Following Rwanda’s independence in 1962, a Hutu-majority government took power, culminating in the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, where nearly 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed.

Post-genocide, around 2 million Hutus, including militia members responsible for the killings, fled into eastern Congo (then Zaire), leading to the formation of over 120 armed groups, including the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu militia. Rwanda intervened in Congo in 1996 and 1998, triggering the First and Second Congo Wars, which resulted in millions of deaths and regional destabilization.

Emergence and Role of M23

The M23 (March 23 Movement) was formed in 2012 by former fighters of the Tutsi-led National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), who rebelled after accusing the DRC government of violating a 2009 peace deal meant to integrate them into the national army. Led by SultaniMakenga, M23 initially captured Goma in 2012 but retreated after international pressure.

Resurfacing in 2022, M23 cited non-implementation of the agreement and vowed to protect Tutsi interests against groups like the FDLR. Since then, they have gained control of key mining regions, particularly Rubaya, rich in coltan, a critical mineral used in electronic devices. The UN estimates that M23 earns $800,000 per month from coltan production taxes, indicating that economic motives are as significant as ethnic ones.

The 2025 Escalation

On January 27, 2025, M23 rebels entered Goma and seized control of the airport by the following evening. By January 30, they had captured the city despite sporadic resistance from government forces and allied militias. The group then began advancing southward towards Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. The UN has confirmed reports of Rwandan troop incursions into South Kivu, while Burundian forces have joined Congolese troops in resisting the offensive.

Regional Dynamics and Rwanda’s Involvement

The Congolese government, along with the UN and Western powers, accuses Rwanda of backing M23 militarily and logistically. A 2022 UN expert report provided "solid evidence" of Rwandan troops fighting alongside M23, though Rwanda continues to deny these allegations. President Paul Kagame justifies his government's position as defensive, blaming the DRC for its alliance with the FDLR, which threatens Tutsis across the region.

Neighboring Burundi, led by President ÉvaristeNdayishimiye, has warned that Rwanda’s ambitions could spark a wider war, even threatening Burundi’s sovereignty. Uganda, meanwhile, plays a balancing role—supporting Congolese efforts against Islamic State-linked militants, while allegedly allowing M23 safe haven, as per UN reports.

Strategic and Economic Importance of Goma

Goma is not just a city; it is a strategic trade and transport hub at the heart of the DRC’s mineral wealth, particularly coltan, of which the DRC supplies nearly 40% of the world’s demand. The region is crucial for smartphone and electronics manufacturing due to coltan’s utility in capacitors.

Thus, the control of Goma and surrounding territories represents not only a military advantage but also a significant economic resource for M23 and its alleged sponsors.

Humanitarian Impact and Global Concerns

The humanitarian toll of the conflict is staggering. With over a million people displaced since M23’s resurgence, the DRC’s fragile state apparatus is further strained. Corpses reportedly lay unburied in Goma after the assault, reflecting a deep crisis of governance, security, and human rights.

Given the ethnic complexities, resource conflicts, and regional rivalries, there are growing fears of the conflict escalating into a full-fledged regional war, drawing in Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda.

In News:

India's foreign policy has undergone a strategic shift towards West Asia, driven by imperatives of energy security, economic integration, and geopolitical balance.

The launch of theIndia-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)at the G20 Summit 2023 marks a key initiative aimed at reshaping global trade while deepening India’s engagement with the Middle East and Europe.

Importance of the Middle East for India

• Energy Security:The Middle East supplies over 53% of India’s crude oil (as of January 2025). Long-term energy agreements, such as the LNG deal with Qatar (until 2048) and India-UAE green hydrogen MoUs, ensure stable energy flows. Strategic ties mitigate disruptions due to OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical tensions.
• Trade and Economic Ties: India’s trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) reached USD 161.59 billion in FY 2023–24. The UAE is India’s third-largest trading partner, with exports worth USD 35.6 billion. A proposed India-GCC Free Trade Agreement and operationalization of IMEC can enhance regional integration.
• Diaspora and Remittances:Over 66% of India’s 1.34 crore NRIs live in Gulf nations. India was the world’s top remittance recipient in 2022, with USD 111 billion, a major share from the Middle East. Labor reforms in the region (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Nitaqat) influence migrant welfare.
• Geopolitical and Strategic Autonomy: India balances relations across regional fault lines — Iran-Saudi and Israel-Arab states — while maintaining strategic autonomy. Defense cooperation includes naval exercises (e.g., Al-Mohed Al-Hindi with Saudi Arabia) and connectivity via Chabahar Port in Iran.
• Food and Maritime Security: The Gulf is a major destination for Indian agricultural exports (e.g., UAE imports worth USD 1.9 billion in FY 2022–23). Strategic waterways like the Red Sea and Arabian Sea are crucial for trade, though increasingly vulnerable to piracy and regional conflict.

IMEC: A Strategic Connectivity Corridor

• IMECenvisions linking India to Europe through the Middle East via multimodal transport and digital-energy corridors, bypassing the Suez Canal. It aims to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Key stakeholders include India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the EU. The Intergovernmental Framework Agreement (2024) lays the foundation for implementation, targeting USD 600 billion in infrastructure investment by 2027.
• Objectives include trade facilitation, supply chain diversification, digital connectivity, and green energy collaboration. However, the Israel-Gaza conflict and regional instability have delayed execution.

Challenges

• Energy volatility due to OPEC+ decisions and Red Sea disruptions.
• Geopolitical unrest in Yemen, Gaza, and Iran-Israel tensions.
• Maritime insecurity, with piracy and Houthi attacks raising shipping costs.
• Labor rights issues, including migrant exploitation.
• Strategic competition from China, with over USD 273 billion invested in the region since 2005.

Policy Recommendations

• Co-develop energy infrastructure (e.g., Saudi Aramco’s stake in Indian refineries).
• Diversify trade via an India-GCC FTA and sectoral cooperation (IT, defense, fintech).
• Enhance maritime and digital connectivity through IMEC and joint port development.
• Secure labor migration with skill pacts and expanded protection schemes.
• Strengthen counter-terrorism and defense cooperation, including intelligence sharing.

Conclusion

India’s West Asia strategy is multifaceted—balancing energy diplomacy, trade, diaspora ties, and strategic connectivity. IMEC offers a transformative opportunity to position India as a central link in global supply chains, but its success depends on stable regional geopolitics and coordinated implementation.

Context:

Sudan’s Darfur region is once again in global focus following a deadly drone attack on the last functional hospital in El-Fasher, killing at least 67 people and injuring dozens. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has called for urgent UN Security Council intervention as the humanitarian situation deteriorates.

Geographical and Historical Background

• Location: Western Sudan, bordering Chad, Libya, Central African Republic, and South Sudan.
• Area: Approximately 493,000 sq. km, nearly the size of France.
• Topography: Predominantly arid and semi-arid terrain, with desert in the north and savanna in the south. Key physical features include:
  • Jebel Marra Mountains: Volcanic highlands and key water source.
  • Wadi Howar: Seasonal river vital for agriculture.
  • Baggara Belt: Grazing zone, often contested.
• Historical Significance: Once an independent Islamic sultanate ruled by the Fur tribe, Darfur was annexed by Anglo-Egyptian Sudan in 1916. The name "Darfur" means "land of the Fur" in Arabic.

Ethnic Composition and Demographics

• Home to over 80 ethnic groups, including the Fur, Zaghawa, Beja, Nubians, and Arabs.
• Long-standing ethnic tensions exist between Arab nomadic groups and non-Arab farming communities, which have been a root cause of conflict.

Conflict Timeline and Key Actors

• Conflict Origins: Armed conflict began in 2003, led by rebel groups such as the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), demanding political autonomy and better representation.
• Government Response: The Sudanese government armed Janjaweed militias—now rebranded as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—who were accused of widespread atrocities, including genocide, mass killings, and rape.
• Recent Escalation:
  • In 2023, violence surged amid civil war between Sudan's national army and RSF.
  • RSF has seized much of Darfur and has besieged El-Fasher, capital of North Darfur, since May 2023.
  • A January 2025 drone attack destroyed the Saudi Hospital in El-Fasher, killing 67 people. The hospital was one of the last with surgical capacity in the region.

Humanitarian Impact

• Health Crisis:
  • 80% of healthcare facilities in Sudan are non-functional.
  • Attacks on medical infrastructure have been rampant; El-Fasher’s Saudi Hospital was hit multiple times by suspected RSF drones.
• Displacement and Starvation:
  • Over 12 million people displaced.
  • Tens of thousands killed.
  • Famine has already gripped camps like Zamzam, Abu Shouk, and Al-Salam, and is expected to spread to additional regions, including El-Fasher, by May 2025 (UN Assessment).

Global and Regional Implications

• The Darfur conflict has destabilized the region, affecting neighboring countries like Chad and the Central African Republic.
• ICC has issued warrants for several individuals including former President Omar al-Bashir, citing war crimes and crimes against humanity.
• The conflict highlights the intersection of climate stress, ethnic rivalries, political marginalization, and international accountability failures.

In News:

The President of Indonesia, visited India as the Chief Guest for the 76th Republic Day in January 2025. This marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties, reaffirming the commitment to deepen cooperation in economic, strategic, cultural, and defense domains.

Historical Foundations

• Ancient Civilizational Links: Trade and cultural exchanges date back to the 2nd century BCE, reflected in the influence of Hinduism and Buddhism on Indonesian society (e.g., Ramayana, Mahabharata, Borobudur, Prambanan).
• Modern Diplomatic Ties:
  • Formalized in 1950, with a Treaty of Friendship in 1951.
  • Collaborated in the 1955 Bandung Conference and co-founded the Non-Aligned Movement (1961).
  • Indonesia’s first President Sukarno was the Guest of Honour at India’s first Republic Day in 1950.
• Cold War and Beyond:
  • Relations cooled in the 1960s but revived in the 1980s.
  • The 1991 'Look East' Policy and the 2014 'Act East' Policy revitalized ties.
  • Strategic Partnership in 2005; upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2018.

Key Pillars of Cooperation

• Economic and Trade Relations
  • Trade Volume: Reached USD 38.8 billion (2022–23), targeted to increase to USD 50 billion by 2025.
  • Key Imports: India imports coal, palm oil, and nickel.
  • Investment: Indian investments in Indonesia total USD 1.56 billion in infrastructure, textiles, and energy.
• New Developments:
  • MoU on Local Currency Settlement Systems to reduce dependency on USD.
  • Focus on resolving trade barriers via forums like WGTI and BMTF.
  • Cooperation in critical minerals like nickel and bauxite.
  • BPCL to invest USD 121 million in the Nunukan gas block.
• Military Exercises: Garuda Shakti (Army), Samudra Shakti (Navy), and participation in Milan, Komodo, Super Garuda Shield, etc.
• Key Agreements:
  • 2018 Defense Cooperation Agreement.
  • White Shipping Information Exchange (WSIE).
  • Proposal for Bilateral Maritime Dialogue and Cyber Security Dialogue.
  • Joint vision on maritime cooperation under SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).
  • BrahMos Deal: Talks underway for Indonesia’s acquisition of BrahMos missiles (~USD 450 million).
• Cultural Diplomacy: Shared heritage of Hindu-Buddhist traditions; India assisting in restoring Prambanan temple.
• Tourism & Connectivity: Direct flights since 2023; India is the second-largest source of tourists to Bali.
• New Initiatives:
  • Cultural Exchange Programme (2025–2028).
  • India reaffirmed the Kashi Cultural Pathway for heritage restoration and repatriation of artifacts.
• Science, Technology, and Space
  • ISRO supports Indonesia’s satellite ambitions; agreement on Biak Tracking Station.
  • Renewed MoU on STEM cooperation.
  • Areas of collaboration: Quantum tech, high-performance computing, and digital public infrastructure.
• Energy and Health Security
  • Collaboration on biofuels under the Global Biofuels Alliance.
  • Joint initiatives on mid-day meals and public distribution systems.
  • MoUs on digital health, capacity building, and traditional medicine.

Multilateral and Regional Cooperation

• ASEAN & Indo-Pacific: Commitment to ASEAN centrality and cooperation through IPOI, India-Indonesia-Australia Trilateral, and ASEAN-India outlook.
• Global Platforms: Collaboration in BRICS, G20, IORA, and advocacy for the Global South.
• Climate & Disaster Resilience:
  • Joint efforts under CDRI.
  • Indonesia invited to the International Solar Alliance and Big Cat Alliance.

Key Challenges

• Trade Imbalance: Heavy reliance on limited imports (coal, palm oil); imbalance persists as Indonesia’s trade with China is far greater (~USD 139 billion).
• Bureaucratic & Regulatory Barriers: Slow progress on infrastructure and investment due to permit and regulatory issues.
• Geopolitical Pressures: Indo-Pacific instability and China's expanding influence pose strategic challenges.
• Logistical Constraints: Inadequate connectivity infrastructure hinders deeper integration.

Way Forward

• Trade Diversification: Include sectors like tech, agriculture, and green energy.
• Defense Deepening: Expand joint exercises, maritime patrols, and intelligence-sharing.
• Enhance Connectivity: Boost air, sea, and digital linkages for trade and tourism.
• Green Collaboration: Advance renewable energy and sustainable mining ventures.
• Cultural & Educational Engagement: Promote student exchanges, scholarships (e.g., ITEC), and diaspora involvement.

Conclusion

India and Indonesia share deep-rooted civilizational links and are strategically aligned in the Indo-Pacific. Their evolving Comprehensive Strategic Partnership encompasses trade, defense, technology, and cultural diplomacy. Strengthening this partnership will not only boost bilateral growth but also ensure a stable, multipolar, and cooperative regional order.

Context:

• The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the G20 Summit 2023 in New Delhi, is a transformative multi-modal connectivity initiative aiming to link India, the Middle East, and Europe through railways, ports, roads, energy pipelines, and digital infrastructure.
• Seen as a strategic counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), IMEC marks a significant step in reshaping global trade routes and enhancing economic cooperation across continents.

Structure and Components of IMEC

• Corridors:
  • Eastern Corridor: Connects India to the Arabian Peninsula
  • Northern Corridor: Links the Gulf to Europe
• Key Infrastructure:
  • Rail and road networks
  • Shipping routes from Indian ports (e.g., Mumbai, Mundra, Kandla, JNPT) to UAE and onwards via rail to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel (Haifa Port)
  • Maritime link from Haifa to Piraeus Port in Greece, and further into Europe
  • Electricity grids, green hydrogen pipelines, and high-speed data cables
• Participating Nations: India, US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, France, Germany, Italy, European Union
• Support Mechanism: US-led Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII)

Significance of IMEC

For India

• Enhanced Global Connectivity:
  • Provides faster, cost-effective access to European markets
  • Reduces dependence on the Suez Canal, a known chokepoint
• Economic Gains:
  • Boosts the Make in India initiative through expanded market access
  • Enhances maritime security and tourism opportunities in the Mediterranean
• Strategic Leverage:
  • Strengthens ties with Middle East, US, and Europe
  • Reinforces India’s image as a global strategic partner
• Energy Security and Green Growth:
  • Facilitates the Green Grid Concept via power lines and hydrogen pipelines
  • Aligns with India’s clean energy and decarbonisation goals
• Digital and Cyber Infrastructure:
  • Supports data flow and communication resilience across the corridor

For the United States

• Strategic Counter to BRI:
  • Offers democratic nations an alternative to China’s BRI
• Reinforces Transatlantic Unity:
  • Addresses trust deficits post Ukraine war
  • Reaffirms US commitment to European allies
• Energy and Supply Chain Security:
  • Reduces reliance on adversarial energy routes
  • Diversifies regional supply chains
• Geopolitical Stability:
  • Encourages peaceful engagement among West Asian rivals
  • Deters alignment with China-led blocks
• Job Creation and Economic Growth:
  • Infrastructure investments boost local economies and employment

Strategic and Geopolitical Implications

• Acts as a balancing mechanism in global geopolitics against the influence of China’s BRI
• Built on diplomatic breakthroughs such as the Abraham Accords
• Promotes economic cooperation between traditional rivals (e.g., Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE)
• Supports a rules-based international order centered on transparency, sustainability, and democratic values

Challenges to Implementation

• Geopolitical Instability: Conflicts such as Israel-Hamas, Iran-Saudi tensions, or political instability in West Asia can delay progress
• Infrastructure Bottlenecks:
  • High capital requirement and complexity of cross-border integration
  • Varying timelines and priorities among participating nations
• Competing Regional Interests:
  • Exclusion of key players like Turkey, Iran, and China may trigger pushback
  • Turkey’s rivalry with Greece and Israel may create diplomatic hurdles

Security Concerns: Risk of terrorism, piracy, and cyber threats in unstable regions

In News:

After 15 months of war triggered by Hamas' October 2023 attack on Israel, a ceasefire agreement has been brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, marking a fragile but significant pause in one of the most destructive phases of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Key Features of the Ceasefire Agreement

The agreement is based on a three-phase framework proposed by US President Joe Biden in June 2024 and endorsed by the UN Security Council:

Phase I (42 days)

• Complete ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas in Gaza.
• Release of 33 Israeli hostages (women, elderly, injured) by Hamas.
• Release of 900–1,650 Palestinian prisoners, including minors and those detained since October 7, 2023.
• Daily entry of 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza.
• Partial Israeli withdrawal from key corridors like Netzarim (splitting Gaza) and parts of the Philadelphi Corridor (Gaza-Egypt border).

Phase II

• Release of remaining hostages, primarily male soldiers.
• Complete Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
• Details to be negotiated during Phase I; no written guarantees for its execution.

Phase III

• Return of the remains of deceased hostages.
• Initiation of a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision.

Challenges to Implementation

Fragile Political Consensus in Israel

• Far-right ministers (e.g., Itamar Ben-Gvir) oppose the deal, threatening to quit the government.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure from both hawks demanding a full military victory and moderates seeking peace.

Hamas' Demands

• Seeks permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal, making it unwilling to release all hostages without guarantees.
• Israel, in contrast, insists on neutralizing Hamas militarily.

Unclear Future Governance of Gaza

• Israel rejects both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) as future administrators.
• Global consensus supports Palestinian-led governance, but viable alternatives remain elusive.

Wider Geopolitical Impact

Reshaping West Asia

• Conflict escalated tensions with Hezbollah (Lebanon) and drew Israel into direct conflict with Iran.
• Iran’s influence weakened due to losses in Hezbollah and Syria.
• Assad regime in Syria collapsed, altering regional power dynamics.

Diplomatic Repercussions for Israel

• Despite military dominance, Israel faces global condemnation over civilian casualties.
• PM Netanyahu is under scrutiny at the ICC (war crimes) and ICJ (genocide allegations).
• Israel is now diplomatically isolated, particularly after the humanitarian toll in Gaza.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

• Over 64,000 Palestinians killed (The Lancet, 2024), including large numbers of civilians.
• Massive destruction of infrastructure—schools, hospitals, homes—rendering Gaza nearly uninhabitable.
• Reconstruction hinges on sustained peace and international aid.

Conclusion

The ceasefire presents a rare opportunity for de-escalation in a deeply entrenched conflict. However, distrust between parties, domestic political constraints, and regional rivalries pose significant risks to its sustainability. A durable peace can only emerge through inclusive political dialogue, humanitarian prioritization, and movement toward a two-state solution.

Introduction:

China has approved the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project, the world's largest hydropower project, with a capacity of 60,000 MW, on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet. This mega-dam, located at the Great Bend in Medog county, has significant geopolitical, environmental, and socio-economic implications for India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, the downstream riparian countries.

Geographical and Geopolitical Context:

• The Brahmaputra is a transboundary river system flowing through China, India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
• China, located at the river’s source in Tibet, is the uppermost riparian nation, controlling water flow into India and Bangladesh.
• All riparian countries, including China, India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, have proposed major water infrastructure projects in the river basin, which has become a site for geopolitical rivalry, with mega-dams symbolizing sovereignty.

China’s Hydropower Ambitions:

• The Yarlung Tsangpo project is part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and aims to address the country's energy needs while moving towards net carbon neutrality by 2060.
• The river's steep descent from Tibet provides an ideal location for hydroelectricity generation.
• China’s previous mega-projects, like the Three Gorges Dam, highlight the scale of these ambitions but also raise concerns about environmental and social consequences, including ecosystem disruption, displacement, and seismic risks.

Impact on Downstream Communities:

• Water Flow and Agriculture: China’s mega-dam may significantly alter water flow to India, particularly affecting agriculture and water availability in the northeastern regions. India, reliant on the Brahmaputra for irrigation and drinking water, could face disruptions.
• Silt and Biodiversity: The blocking of silt essential for agriculture could degrade soil quality and damage biodiversity in the river basin.
• Seismic Risks: The region’s seismic activity, coupled with the construction of large dams, heightens the risk of catastrophic events such as landslides and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which have previously caused devastation in the Himalayas.

Hydropower Competition Between China and India:

• Both China and India are competing to harness the Brahmaputra's potential for hydropower, with India planning its own large project at Upper Siang.
• Bhutan has also proposed several medium-sized dams, raising concerns in downstream countries about cumulative impacts.
• No comprehensive bilateral treaty exists between India and China to regulate shared transboundary rivers, though they have mechanisms for data sharing and discussions on river issues.

Environmental and Regional Concerns:

• The Brahmaputra river basin is an ecologically sensitive region. The construction of large dams threatens the fragile ecosystem, including agro-pastoral communities, biodiversity, and wetlands.
• Tibet’s river systems are vital for the global cryosphere, affecting climate systems, including monsoon patterns. Disruption to these systems could have broader implications for regional and global climate stability.

Challenges in Bilateral Cooperation:

• India and China have struggled with effective coordination on river management. China has shown reluctance to share critical hydrological data, a concern amplified by the lack of a binding agreement.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the two countries, particularly over the border dispute, further complicate cooperation on transboundary water issues.

Recommendations for India:

• Enhanced Cooperation: India should push for renewed agreements and mechanisms for real-time data exchange with China to prevent ecological and socio-economic damage.
• Public Challenges: India needs to challenge China’s claims that its hydropower projects will have minimal downstream impact, ensuring that India's concerns are addressed in international forums.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Water issues should be prioritized in India’s diplomatic engagement with China, emphasizing the importance of transparency and cooperation to ensure mutual benefit and regional stability.

Conclusion:

The Yarlung Tsangpo mega-dam project poses significant risks to the entire Brahmaputra river basin. A collaborative approach, involving transparent dialogue and cooperation among riparian countries, is essential to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on downstream communities and the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.

In News:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day visit to Kuwait marks a significant milestone in India-Kuwait relations, being the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in over four decades. This visit, undertaken at the invitation of Emir Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, aims to strengthen bilateral ties in key areas like trade, defense, energy, and cultural cooperation.

Strategic Partnership and Key Agreements

The visit elevated India-Kuwait relations to a 'Strategic Partnership,' with agreements covering diverse sectors. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on defense cooperation was signed, focusing on joint military exercises, coastal defense, and training. Furthermore, the two countries signed a Cultural Exchange Programme for 2025-2029 and an Executive Programme on Sports Cooperation for 2025-2028, enhancing cultural and people-to-people ties.

The establishment of a Joint Commission on Cooperation (JCC) will monitor bilateral relations, and new Joint Working Groups (JWGs) have been set up in areas like education, trade, and counter-terrorism. Both nations also agreed to deepen collaboration in emerging sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, e-governance, and technology sharing.

Economic and Energy Cooperation

India and Kuwait share strong economic ties, with bilateral trade reaching USD 10.47 billion in 2023-24. Kuwait is India’s sixth-largest crude oil supplier, meeting 3% of India's energy needs. The countries have also agreed to transition from a buyer-seller relationship in energy to a more comprehensive partnership, with focus areas including oil, gas, refining, and renewable energy. Kuwait’s membership in the International Solar Alliance (ISA) was welcomed by India, reflecting their growing collaboration in the energy sector.

Indian Diaspora and Labour Cooperation

The Indian community, numbering over 1 million, forms the largest expatriate group in Kuwait and plays a pivotal role in the country’s economy. Their contribution spans various sectors, including healthcare, engineering, retail, and business. Kuwait’s Vision 2035, which seeks to diversify its economy beyond oil, presents significant opportunities for collaboration with India, particularly in infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology.

The skilled workforce from India also aligns with Kuwait's developmental goals, offering further opportunities for labor cooperation, especially in sectors like healthcare, technology, and infrastructure.

Geopolitical and Multilateral Cooperation

India-Kuwait relations hold regional significance, particularly in West Asia. Kuwait's role in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) amplifies its geopolitical importance. India’s engagement with Kuwait helps maintain a balanced presence in the region, essential for its energy security and broader geopolitical interests. The GCC, which includes six Arab states, remains a key partner for India, contributing to significant trade and remittances. India also seeks to conclude a Free Trade Agreement with the GCC to enhance economic collaboration.

Cultural and Historical Ties

India and Kuwait’s relationship has deep historical roots, dating back to the pre-oil era when maritime trade was a cornerstone of Kuwait’s economy. Over the years, this relationship has grown, with India being a major trading partner and Kuwait contributing significantly to India's energy needs. The Indian Rupee was once the legal tender in Kuwait, underscoring the strength of their historical ties.

In conclusion, PM Modi's visit to Kuwait sets the stage for enhanced cooperation across several domains, reinforcing the strategic partnership between the two nations. It also highlights India's broader objectives in the West Asia region, balancing economic, geopolitical, and cultural interests.

In News:

The 23rd meeting between India’s National Security Adviser (NSA) and China’s Foreign Minister, held as Special Representatives (SRs), marks a pivotal moment in the complex bilateral relationship between the two nations. This dialogue, which follows years of strain exacerbated by the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, signals a renewed commitment to restoring stability and fostering peace along the border.

Special Representatives Mechanism: A Foundation for Dialogue

The SR mechanism, established in the early 2000s, has long served as a key platform for addressing bilateral disputes, particularly the contentious boundary issue. Past rounds of discussions have facilitated troop disengagement and efforts to maintain peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The recent meeting, following the 2023 BRICS summit discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, demonstrates a positive step towards de-escalation, with the resumption of talks providing hope for progress.

Key Outcomes of the 23rd SR Meeting

Several significant developments emerged from the meeting, focusing on cultural, economic, and strategic cooperation:

• Cultural and Economic Cooperation:
  • Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra: The resumption of this religious pilgrimage represents a significant cultural exchange, fostering people-to-people ties.
  • Border Trade Revival: Border trade in Sikkim has been reestablished, potentially revitalizing local economies and improving trade relations.
• Scientific and Environmental Cooperation:
  • Trans-boundary River Data Sharing: China’s commitment to sharing crucial river data with India will aid in flood management, directly addressing India’s long-standing concerns over water security, particularly in light of China's upstream dam projects.
• Connectivity and Exchange Programs:
  • Discussions on restarting direct flights and visa easements for students and businesses, along with enhanced journalist exchanges, signal a move toward greater normalization of relations.
• Commitment to Border Peace:
  • Both sides have reiterated their intent to maintain peace along the border, a critical factor in reducing tensions. While China expressed a six-point consensus, India has cautiously framed the outcome as “positive directions,” reflecting a reserved optimism.

Challenges in India-China Relations

Despite the positive momentum, numerous challenges persist in the bilateral relationship:

• Boundary Dispute:
  • The core irritant remains the unresolved border issue, with divergent perceptions of the LAC. While some disengagement has occurred, full de-escalation and demilitarization across the entire border have not yet been achieved.
• Trust Deficit:
  • The 2020 Galwan clash has left a lasting scar on mutual trust. Additionally, China’s aggressive patrolling and policy shifts continue to raise concerns in India, necessitating vigilance in future negotiations.
• Economic Imbalances:
  • India’s trade relationship with China remains lopsided, with a significant trade deficit. Moreover, China’s growing influence in India’s neighborhood, particularly in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, challenges India’s strategic interests.
• Global Power Dynamics:
  • India’s evolving alliances, particularly with the U.S., QUAD, and I2U2 group, alongside China’s assertive stance in Taiwan and the South China Sea, complicate bilateral relations and influence global perceptions.

The Way Forward

To navigate the challenges and harness opportunities, India must adopt a balanced approach, combining diplomatic engagement, economic resilience, and strategic vigilance:

• Confidence-Building Measures:
  • Continued disengagement and de-escalation at the LAC, coupled with increased transparency in military activities, will be critical to maintaining peace.
• Broadening Cooperation:
  • Exploring areas of mutual interest, such as climate change, public health, and infrastructure development, could foster deeper cooperation and help transcend contentious issues.
• Economic Realignment:
  • India must address its trade deficit by pushing for greater market access for Indian products in China. Additionally, diversifying supply chains and promoting joint ventures in renewable energy and technology can reduce dependency.
• Multilateral Engagement:
  • Engaging through global forums like BRICS, SCO, and G20, and strengthening regional alliances, will help mitigate tensions and counterbalance China's regional influence.
• Strategic Vigilance:
  • Strengthening ties with regional allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and enhancing military preparedness will safeguard India’s strategic interests in the face of China’s assertiveness.

Conclusion

The recent meeting between India and China represents a cautious but constructive step toward stabilizing their fraught relationship. By focusing on diplomacy, strengthening economic ties, and maintaining strategic vigilance, India can navigate its complex relationship with China in a rapidly shifting global context. A careful balance of engagement and vigilance will be crucial for India’s future dealings with its powerful neighbor.

In News:

The recent visit of Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) to India marked a significant moment in bilateral relations, as it was his first foreign trip since assuming office. The visit underscored key diplomatic exchanges and collaborations between the two countries, showcasing both areas of agreement and divergence.

Key Takeaways from AKD's Visit

Assurance on Anti-India Activities: One of the primary concerns for India was the use of Sri Lankan territory for activities detrimental to its security, particularly the presence of Chinese “research vessels” at Sri Lankan ports. President AKD assured Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Sri Lanka would not allow its territory to be used in ways that threaten India’s interests. This assurance is crucial, as it signals Sri Lanka's stance on maintaining regional stability, despite AKD’s perceived pro-China inclinations.

Tamil Minority Issue: Divergent Views: A notable divergence in their discussions was the issue of the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka. India has long advocated for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s Constitution, which would grant greater autonomy to the Tamil minority. However, AKD resisted this, reaffirming his opposition to the amendment’s full implementation. While India emphasized the importance of reconciliation and holding provincial elections, AKD focused on unity, sustainable development, and social protection, sidestepping any definitive commitments on the Tamil issue.

Sri Lanka's Assertive Diplomatic Posture: AKD’s strong parliamentary mandate has allowed him to adopt a more assertive diplomatic stance. This is evident not only in his handling of the Tamil issue but also in his approach to dealing with major powers like India and China. His administration appears to be prioritizing a more independent foreign policy, signaling a shift from previous administrations.

Bilateral Cooperation and Development Initiatives

The visit saw significant agreements on bilateral cooperation, particularly in development and connectivity. Both nations acknowledged the positive impact of India’s assistance in Sri Lanka’s socio-economic growth. Key projects discussed include:

• Indian Housing Project: Phases III and IV.
• Hybrid Renewable Energy Projects across three islands.
• High-Impact Community Development Projects.
• Digital collaborations, such as the implementation of Aadhaar and UPI systems in Sri Lanka.

Additionally, discussions focused on enhancing energy cooperation, including the supply of LNG, development of offshore wind power in the Palk Strait, and the high-capacity power grid interconnection. The resumption of passenger ferry services between key Indian and Sri Lankan ports was also a priority.

Defence and Security Cooperation

The two leaders agreed to explore a Defence Cooperation Framework and intensify collaboration on maritime surveillance, cyber security, and counter-terrorism. This aligns with India’s strategic interests in the region, as it seeks to ensure stability in the Indian Ocean and strengthen its defense ties with Sri Lanka.

Strategic Continuity Amid Leadership Change

Despite a change in leadership, the core strategic interests between India and Sri Lanka remain aligned. India views Sri Lanka’s stability as crucial to regional security, and both countries are focused on a mutually beneficial partnership. AKD’s emphasis on economic recovery and tackling corruption within Sri Lanka, as seen in his actions against political figures like Speaker Asoka Ranwala, further signals his determination to build a strong foundation for his government’s future.

Conclusion

President AKD’s visit highlighted the evolving dynamics of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, marked by a more confident and independent approach in engaging with India. While challenges remain, especially regarding the Tamil issue, both countries have reaffirmed their commitment to deepening bilateral ties, with a focus on development, connectivity, and strategic cooperation.

In News:

The December 2023 visit of Bhutan’s King and Queen to India highlights the enduring and strategic partnership between the two nations. Amidst growing Chinese influence and Bhutan’s domestic challenges, the visit holds significant geopolitical relevance, reinforcing India-Bhutan relations and underscoring Bhutan's critical role in India’s regional security.

Reaffirmation of India-Bhutan Relations

The visit reaffirmed the strong, time-tested partnership between India and Bhutan, rooted in mutual trust and cooperation. India reiterated its commitment to Bhutan's socio-economic development, increasing its financial aid for the 2024-2029 period from ?5,000 crore to ?10,000 crore. Notably, Bhutan’s flagship Gelephu Mindfulness City Project, championed by King Jigme Khesar, received strong Indian backing, reflecting India’s willingness to align with Bhutan’s developmental priorities.

Strategic Areas of Cooperation

Clean Energy and Hydropower

Bhutan remains central to India’s renewable energy strategy, particularly in hydropower, a vital part of Bhutan's economy. Bhutan exports the majority of its hydropower to India, reinforcing bilateral ties in the energy sector. This cooperation aligns with India’s regional energy security goals, with both nations seeking to strengthen clean energy initiatives.

Infrastructure Development

The visit also emphasized infrastructure projects, vital for enhancing Bhutan's connectivity. These projects are strategically significant, considering Bhutan's geostrategic importance in the Himalayas. Infrastructure development further strengthens the ties between the two nations, with a focus on mutual benefits and regional stability.

Geopolitical Context: China’s Growing Influence

China-Bhutan Border Disputes

The border issue with China has been ongoing since 1984. In 2023, Bhutan and China signed an agreement to expedite the settlement and demarcation of their borders. China’s push for resolution is part of its broader strategy to reduce India’s influence in Bhutan. The disputed areas, particularly those near India’s Siliguri Corridor, hold strategic importance for New Delhi. Any territorial adjustments could undermine India’s access to its Northeastern states.

Chinese Influence and Economic Engagement

China has been constructing villages along disputed border areas, altering ground realities and establishing civilian hubs that could serve as military outposts. Additionally, China is offering economic incentives to Bhutan, including promoting tourism and investing in Bhutan’s telecom sector, seeking to draw the country into closer economic and diplomatic alignment.

India’s Role in Bhutan’s Security and Sovereignty

Strategic Dependence on India

Bhutan's small military relies heavily on Indian support for training and defense. The 2017 Doklam standoff, where Indian forces intervened to prevent China from constructing a road in disputed territory, underscored India's crucial role in safeguarding Bhutan’s territorial integrity.

Friendship Treaty

The India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty is the cornerstone of their bilateral relations, ensuring Bhutan's sovereignty while reinforcing India's role in Bhutan’s foreign and defense policies. India's increased financial support aims to counter China’s economic influence in Bhutan.

Challenges for Bhutan

Balancing India and China

Bhutan is navigating a delicate balance between preserving its historical ties with India and engaging with China, which offers economic benefits. However, Bhutan’s sovereignty concerns limit its ability to make independent diplomatic decisions.

Domestic Issues

Bhutan faces challenges such as youth migration and limited economic diversification. Over-reliance on hydropower and a lack of industrial development make it vulnerable to external pressures, particularly from China.

The Strategic Importance of Bhutan to India

Geopolitical Buffer

Bhutan's location is vital for India’s security, especially in relation to the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow land link connecting India’s Northeast. Any Chinese presence in Bhutan’s disputed regions could disrupt access to this crucial corridor.

Hydropower Collaboration

Bhutan’s hydropower exports are central to India’s renewable energy strategy, and their cooperation in this area ensures mutual benefits.

Way Forward

India must continue to prioritize Bhutan’s development needs, ensuring robust financial and infrastructural support. Proactive engagement is necessary to address Bhutan’s concerns, particularly in light of China’s growing influence. Additionally, India should support Bhutan’s economic diversification to reduce reliance on external actors.

Introduction

Minilateralism refers to the growing trend of smaller, more focused international groupings of countries that cooperate on specific issues or regional challenges. It contrasts with the traditional multilateral frameworks, which are often large, slow-moving, and bogged down by lengthy debates and consensus-building. Today, minilateral platforms are increasingly driving global decision-making and shaping the future of international relations.

Rise of Minilateralism

Failure of Multilateralism

• Multilateralism's Decline: Traditional multilateral institutions like the United Nations (UN) are increasingly seen as ineffective due to their bureaucratic nature and the challenges in building consensus among a large number of diverse nations.
• Global Challenges: Emerging global issues, such as climate change, terrorism, and cybersecurity, require faster and more effective responses. The inability of multilateral platforms to address these challenges efficiently has led to a preference for smaller, more agile groupings.

Emergence of New Powers

• Multipolar World: The rise of new powers such as China, India, and Brazil has contributed to the formation of minilateral groupings. These rising powers desire a greater role in global governance but may not yet have the ability or desire to reshape the international order through large, cumbersome institutions.
• Minilateralism as "Multipolarity Lite": Minilateralism allows these countries to assert themselves as regional or global poles without the need for the complexities of full-scale multilateralism.

India's Role in Minilateralism

Strategic Positioning

• Geopolitical Context: India’s strategic location in South Asia, its status as part of the Global South, and its proximity to a rising China have all influenced its approach to minilateralism. India’s multi-aligned approach reflects its desire for flexibility in navigating the complex and shifting global geopolitical landscape.
• Diverse Partnerships: India is a key player in various minilateral arrangements, balancing its relationships with both traditional Western powers and rising Eastern nations, often serving as a bridge between competing geopolitical interests.

Minilateralism as a Solution

• Diversification Over Alignment: India's preference for minilateralism stems from the desire to avoid over-reliance on any single bloc or country. By engaging in multiple minilateral platforms, India seeks to hedge its interests, balancing its strategic objectives between competing global forces.

The Role of Minilateral Forums

Decision-making and Action

• Faster Action: Minilateral groupings facilitate quicker decision-making by bringing together like-minded countries to focus on specific issues, allowing for more decisive action than traditional multilateral bodies.
• Conflict Resolution: While minilateral platforms may not directly resolve conflicts, they offer indirect pathways for addressing geopolitical tensions by fostering dialogue and cooperation among countries with divergent interests.

Examples of Minilateral Groupings

• BRICS: The grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa is an example of a minilateral arrangement where emerging powers cooperate on shared economic and political interests.
• Quad: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia) is a prominent example of minilateralism focused on regional security, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Other Regional Groupings: Minilateralism also manifests in regional arrangements such as the ASEAN-led East Asia Summit or the India-Japan-Australia trilateral forum, each addressing specific regional and global concerns.

Conclusion

Shaping the Future of Global Order

Minilateralism is reshaping the international order by fostering closer, more flexible cooperation between countries on a wide range of issues. As multilateralism faces growing challenges, smaller, more focused partnerships offer a faster and more efficient means of addressing global problems. India's pivotal role in these groupings reflects its desire to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape while maintaining strategic autonomy. The rise of minilateralism marks a significant shift in global governance, one that could define the future of international relations.

In News:

Need for modification of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) amidst changing geopolitical, environmental, and demographic realities.

Background of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

• About IWT:
  • Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank.
  • Governs the sharing of the Indus River system waters.
• Historical Context:
  • Origin in the Inter-Dominion Accord of 1948 post-partition.
  • Finalized after negotiations facilitated by the World Bank in 1951.
• Key Provisions:
  • Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) allocated to India.
  • Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) allocated to Pakistan, with limited use allowed for India (e.g., hydropower, irrigation).
  • Establishment of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) for cooperation and dispute resolution.

India’s Perspective

• Rationale for Modification:
  • Increased demographic and agricultural demands.
  • Need for sustainable water management.
  • Acceleration of hydropower projects on western rivers permitted by the treaty.
• Security Concerns: Cross-border terrorism impacting trust in treaty operations.

Pakistan’s Concerns

• Dependence on Indus System:  Critical for agriculture and drinking water as the lower riparian state.
• Potential Impacts of Modification:
  • Fear of reduced water availability.
  • Concerns over India’s hydropower projects altering water flow.

Current Challenges

• Hydropower Projects: Disputes over compliance with treaty provisions regarding hydropower construction.
• Technical Disputes: Divergent interpretations of treaty terms.
• Political Tensions: Strained bilateral relations with minimal diplomatic engagement.
• Climate Change Impacts: Altered precipitation patterns and glacial melt affecting water availability.

Arguments for Modifying the Treaty

• Addressing Contemporary Challenges: Climate change, technological advancements, and increased water demand.
• Securing National Interests:
  • Clarifications on hydropower construction.
  • Improved dispute resolution mechanisms.

Risks of Modifying the Treaty

• Escalation of Tensions: Perceived unilateral actions by Pakistan.
• Political Sensitivities: Domestic opposition in both countries.

Way Forward: A Balanced Approach

• Engagement and Dialogue: Bilateral discussions with potential third-party mediation (e.g., World Bank).
• Cooperation over Conflict: Recognizing mutual benefits of collaboration in water management.
• Adaptation Measures: Incorporate provisions addressing climate change and technological advances.

In News:

Recently, the 16th BRICS Summit was held in Kazan, Russia.

Key Highlights:

Overview of the Bilateral Meeting between PM Modi and President Xi

• Location & Context: The meeting took place on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia (October 23, 2024), marking the first bilateral interaction between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping in nearly five years.
• Significance: The meeting focused on India-China relations, specifically the border dispute that arose following the 2020 standoff in Ladakh.
• Agreement on Border Disengagement: Both leaders welcomed an agreement for "complete disengagement" along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which could pave the way for the resolution of issues that emerged after the Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020.

Key Points of the India-China Border Pact

• Resolution of Border Issues: The agreement addresses longstanding disputes, including in Depsang Plains and Demchok, where Chinese forces had encroached on Indian territory.
• Restoration of Patrolling: Both nations agreed to restore patrols to old patrolling points (PPs) along the LAC in these disputed areas.
• Next Steps: The Special Representatives (SRs) on the India-China boundary will meet soon to oversee the management of peace and tranquility in the border areas and explore mutually acceptable solutions.
• Diplomatic Mechanisms: Dialogue mechanisms at the foreign ministers and other official levels will be utilized to stabilize and rebuild bilateral relations, contributing to regional and global stability.

Strategic Importance of the Bilateral Meeting

• Maintaining Peace and Stability: PM Modi emphasized that differences between India and China should be managed carefully to ensure that broader peace and tranquility are maintained.
• Global Impact: Both leaders affirmed that stable India-China relations would have a positive impact on regional and global peace and contribute to a multipolar world.
• Long-Term Strategic Perspective: The leaders discussed progressing bilateral relations from a strategic perspective, enhancing communication, and exploring cooperation to address developmental challenges.

Key Takeaways from the 16th BRICS Summit

• Expansion and New Membership: The summit saw the inclusion of five new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia (pending formalization). This expansion reflects BRICS’s growing influence as a forum representing the Global South.
• Focus on Multilateralism: Leaders emphasized multilateral cooperation to address challenges such as global security, economic growth, and sustainable development.
• Kazan Declaration: The declaration touched upon key issues:
  • Geopolitical Conflicts: It called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve disputes like the Ukraine crisis and the West Asia conflict.
  • Sanctions and Trade: Criticized unilateral sanctions and their disruptive effects on global trade and development goals.
  • Grain Exchange: A proposal was made to establish a BRICS Grain Exchange, aimed at improving agricultural trade among member states.
  • Financial Integration: There was a push for greater financial integration through the use of local currencies for trade, exemplified by India’s UPI system as a successful model.

Importance of BRICS in the Global Context

• Global Influence: BRICS continues to be a key player in global geopolitics, representing 40% of the world’s population and 26% of global GDP (as of 2023).
• Strategic Goals: BRICS has consistently called for reform of international institutions like the UNSC, IMF, and World Bank, advocating for a more equitable global governance structure.
• Economic Collaboration: The New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2015, continues to play a vital role in funding development projects across BRICS countries, though the group’s influence in global finance remains limited compared to the World Bank.

Challenges Facing BRICS Expansion

• Geopolitical Contradictions: The inclusion of diverse new members (e.g., UAE, Egypt, Iran) could complicate decision-making due to geopolitical rivalries.
• Decision-Making Hurdles: Achieving consensus among an expanding membership will become more challenging. The expansion may dilute the cohesiveness of the group, as seen in other multilateral forums like the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and G77.
• De-Dollarisation Efforts: While BRICS aims to de-dollarize trade and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system, efforts to develop alternatives like a BRICS payment system and BRICS currency are still in nascent stages.
• Economic Disparities: Economic gaps among members—China’s GDP is significantly larger than the combined GDP of other members—could also create imbalances in decision-making.

India’s Role and Strategic Positioning in BRICS

• Geopolitical Balancing: India's participation in BRICS is a strategic maneuver to balance its global position and strengthen ties with emerging economies, particularly in the Global South.
• Diplomatic Relations with Russia: India continues to prioritize its relationship with Russia, which remains crucial for regional security and energy cooperation.
• India-China Ties: The agreement on the India-China border represents a significant shift in relations, with potential for a reset in Sino-Indian ties.

Key Themes in the Kazan Declaration

• Global Governance: Calls for reforming global institutions to give developing nations more representation.
• Energy and Sustainability: Proposals for strengthening energy cooperation, including the creation of energy corridors and the promotion of sustainable energy practices.
• Security: Emphasized the need for universal security by addressing the security concerns of all nations and promoting dialogue over confrontation.

Conclusion: Future of India-China and BRICS Relations

• India-China Relations: The border disengagement pact is a critical step towards stabilizing the India-China relationship, with potential positive impacts on regional security and global geopolitics.
• BRICS’s Growing Influence: As BRICS expands, it faces internal challenges but remains a potent voice for the Global South, aiming to reshape global governance and financial systems.
• India’s Strategic Positioning: India is likely to play a pivotal role in BRICS, especially as the group’s focus shifts towards regional stability, economic cooperation, and de-dollarization in the coming years.

In News:

India-Canada relations have recently faced serious setbacks following allegations of India's involvement in the killing of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. These claims have led to escalating diplomatic tensions and mutual expulsions of diplomats between the two countries.

Recent Developments in India-Canada Relations

• Assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar:
  • Nijjar, a prominent Khalistani leader, was assassinated in British Columbia, Canada.
  • The Canadian Prime Minister accused Indian officials of involvement, which India has denied as "absurd."
• Diplomatic Fallout:
  • Both nations expelled each other's diplomats, reducing diplomatic staff and freezing consular services, exacerbating the tensions.
• Support from the Five Eyes Alliance:
  • Canada enlisted the Five Eyes intelligence alliance to gain international backing amid the escalating diplomatic crisis with India.

What is the Five Eyes Alliance?

• About:
  • The Five Eyes is a multilateral intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
  • These countries cooperate on signals intelligence under the UK-USA Agreement.
• Expansion:
  • The alliance later grew into the Nine Eyes and Fourteen Eyes alliances, incorporating additional countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, France, Norway, and others.

Key Areas of India-Canada Relations

• Political Relations:
  • Diplomatic ties began in 1947, with both countries sharing democratic values, human rights, and pluralism.
  • Collaborative efforts in global forums like the UN, G20, and Commonwealth focus on climate change, security, and sustainable development.
• Economic Cooperation:
  • Bilateral trade in 2023 was worth USD 9.36 billion.
  • Canada is the 18th largest investor in India with investments totaling USD 3.3 billion (2000-2023).
  • Ongoing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) negotiations aim to boost trade in goods, services, and investments.
• Diaspora Connections:
  • Over 1.8 million people of Indian origin in Canada, contributing significantly to cultural and economic exchanges.
  • Canada is home to one of the largest Indian diaspora populations globally.
• Education and Space Innovation:
  • IC-IMPACTS promotes joint research in healthcare, agricultural biotechnology, and waste management.
  • Space collaboration includes partnerships between ISRO and the Canadian Space Agency.
  • Indian students represent nearly 40% of Canada's international student population.
• Nuclear Cooperation:
  • A 2010 nuclear agreement allows the supply of uranium to India and establishes a Joint Committee for oversight.
• Strategic Importance:
  • India’s role is key in Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy, including collaboration on maritime security, counter-terrorism, and regional stability.

Challenges in India-Canada Relations

1. Diplomatic Immunity Issues:
   • Canada invoked the Vienna Conventions to protect its diplomatic staff amid tensions, with both sides highlighting the importance of maintaining diplomatic norms.
2. Khalistan Issue:
   • India views Canada’s tolerance of Khalistani separatist groups as a threat to its territorial integrity.
   • Canada’s investigation into India’s alleged role in Nijjar’s assassination has exacerbated diplomatic mistrust.
3. Economic and Trade Barriers:
   • The political rift has stalled negotiations for the CEPA and slowed bilateral trade.
   • Canadian investments in India face increased uncertainty due to deteriorating relations.
4. Visa and Immigration Delays:
   • Reduced Canadian diplomatic staff in India has caused significant delays in visa processing, especially for students.
5. Geopolitical Implications:
   • Tensions between India and Canada risk damaging India’s reputation on the global stage, particularly if allegations of intelligence overreach are substantiated.
   • Canada’s membership in the G7 and ties with the Five Eyes make the situation complex, affecting relations with other strategic partners of India, including the US, UK, Australia, and Japan.

The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Immunity

• Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961): Establishes the framework for the treatment and protection of diplomatic missions and their personnel.
  • Diplomatic Immunity: Diplomats are protected from arrest and detention by the host country.
  • Inviolability of Diplomatic Premises: Diplomatic missions cannot be entered without permission.
  • Protection of Consular Officers: Ensures consular officers can assist their nationals without interference.

Way Forward for India-Canada Relations

1. Address the Khalistan Issue: Engage in active dialogue to resolve concerns about the Indian diaspora and the Khalistan movement, respecting each other’s sovereignty.
2. Strengthen Economic Ties:
   • Revitalize CEPA negotiations, with a focus on sectors like technology, renewable energy, and infrastructure.
   • Enhance trade and investment frameworks for mutually beneficial opportunities.
3. Balance Geopolitical Interests:
   • Both nations should navigate relationships with major powers like the US, China, and Russia with care.
   • A cautious approach is necessary to maintain strategic partnerships without further conflict.
4. Leverage Multilateral Platforms: Utilize forums like the G7 and Five Eyes to address global challenges and promote shared values, while working to stabilize bilateral ties.

Conclusion

India-Canada relations are at a critical juncture due to recent tensions. While historical ties and shared interests provide a strong foundation, the diplomatic fallout requires careful management. Both nations must seek ways to restore dialogue, address sensitive issues like the Khalistan movement, and focus on economic cooperation to stabilize and strengthen the relationship moving forward.

In News:

India has decided to halt all meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) until both governments engage in discussions to renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a decision communicated by a senior official. The last PIC meeting occurred in May 2022, and since January 2023, India has made four attempts to initiate talks with Pakistan, but these efforts have not received satisfactory responses.

The IWT, established in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, governs the sharing of six rivers between India and Pakistan. Under this treaty, India controls the waters of the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas rivers, while Pakistan has rights to the Sindh, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. The treaty mandates annual meetings of the PIC, which have continued despite ongoing conflicts between the two nations. However, India’s recent push for renegotiation threatens the stability of this long-standing arrangement.

India's Notice for Review of the Indus Waters Treaty

India formally issued a notice to Pakistan on August 30, 2023, seeking modifications to the IWT, citing "fundamental and unforeseen changes" that necessitate a reassessment of the agreement. This is not an isolated instance; India had previously requested a review in January 2023, attributing the need for change to Pakistan’s persistent intransigence regarding its obligations under the treaty.

Key reasons for India’s demand include:

• Changes in population demographics and environmental challenges.
• The necessity for clean energy development to meet emissions targets.
• The impact of ongoing cross-border terrorism, which India argues affects water management and security.

The notification highlights issues related to two contentious hydroelectric projects in Jammu & Kashmir—the Kishanganga and Ratle projects—over which Pakistan has raised objections, claiming they violate the IWT. India asserts that these projects are "run-of-the-river" schemes that do not significantly impede river flow.

Dispute Resolution Mechanisms Under the Treaty

The IWT outlines a structured dispute resolution mechanism, as detailed in Article IX. This mechanism involves three levels:

1. First Level: Initial discussions occur at the PIC, where either party must inform the other of planned projects.
2. Second Level: If differences remain unresolved, a Neutral Expert, appointed by the World Bank, is engaged to mediate.
3. Third Level: Should the Neutral Expert fail to resolve the issue, the dispute escalates to the Court of Arbitration.

Historically, both countries have used these mechanisms, although recent years have seen significant contention. After a Pakistan-backed terror attack in Uri in 2016, India’s Prime Minister expressed the sentiment that “blood and water cannot flow together,” leading to the suspension of routine talks.

The World Bank has navigated a complex situation, receiving requests from both nations for adjudication on overlapping disputes. In December 2016, it paused these processes to encourage direct negotiations. Despite attempts to resume dialogue between 2017 and 2022, Pakistan’s reluctance to engage has further complicated matters.

Current Status and Future Implications

India’s formal notification and its call for renegotiation may set a precedent that challenges the existing framework of the IWT. The continuation of the PIC's activities hinges on a willingness from both governments to address these evolving concerns collaboratively. As tensions persist and environmental needs grow, the future of water-sharing arrangements in the region remains uncertain. The overarching goal for both nations will be to find a sustainable resolution that addresses emerging challenges while honoring the historical framework established by the IWT.

In News:

The chief prosecutor of Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), Mohammad Tajul Islam, announced plans to seek the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from India. The ICT was established in 2010 to investigate crimes committed during the 1971 independence war from Pakistan.

Background on Sheikh Hasina's Exile

Ms. Hasina sought refuge in India in early August after a mass uprising forced her to resign. Following her departure, numerous criminal cases have been filed against her and her aides, with charges including murder, torture, abduction, crimes against humanity, and genocide. The interim government in Dhaka has revoked her diplomatic passport, and the existing bilateral extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh may allow for her return to face trial.

Extradition Treaty Overview

Key Provisions

• Under the International Crimes (Tribunals) Act of 1973, Bangladeshi courts can proceed with trials in Ms. Hasina’s absence, raising concerns about the fairness and adherence to due process. Thus, her extradition is deemed crucial.
• The extradition treaty between India and Bangladesh was executed in 2013 and amended in 2016 to facilitate the exchange of fugitives. The treaty has allowed the transfer of several political prisoners, including two involved in the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Ms. Hasina’s father, and Anup Chetia, the former general secretary of the banned United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA).

Extradition Conditions

• The treaty mandates the extradition of individuals charged with crimes punishable by at least one year’s imprisonment. It follows the principle of dual criminality, meaning the offense must be punishable in both countries. Since the charges against Ms. Hasina are prosecutable in India, she qualifies for extradition. The treaty also covers attempts to commit crimes and complicity in such offenses.
• The 2016 amendment significantly lowered the evidentiary threshold for extradition, requiring only an arrest warrant from a competent court in the requesting country to initiate proceedings.

Grounds for Refusal of Extradition

Political Nature of Offenses

Article 6 of the treaty allows for extradition to be refused if the offense is deemed of a “political nature.” However, many offenses, including murder and terrorism-related crimes, are explicitly excluded from this classification. Given that several charges against Ms. Hasina fall outside this exemption, it is unlikely India could justify denying extradition on these grounds.

Good Faith Clause

Article 8 permits denial of extradition requests if the accusations are not made in good faith or involve military offenses not recognized under general criminal law. India could argue that the charges against Ms. Hasina are politically motivated and may lead to her facing unfair trials or persecution upon her return. Recent reports indicate that some of Ms. Hasina’s former ministers faced violent arrests, raising further concerns about the political climate in Bangladesh.

Potential Implications of Extradition Request

Dr. Sreeradha Datta, a professor of international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University, commented that the treaty does not guarantee Ms. Hasina’s extradition, emphasizing that the final decision will depend on diplomatic negotiations and political factors. Even if India declines the request, it may only serve as a minor political irritant rather than significantly damaging bilateral relations.

Economic Considerations

Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade estimated at $15.9 billion for the fiscal year 2022-23. Before Ms. Hasina’s ouster, both countries were set to discuss a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) to strengthen economic ties. Following the regime change in Dhaka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged with Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus of the interim government, pledging continued support for ongoing development projects.

India’s Four-Point Principle on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• Principles for Resolution: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar outlined India's four key principles regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
  • Peace as a Priority: Emphasis on the need for peace and the belief that the conflict cannot be resolved through continued warfare.
  • Negotiation Requirement: Asserted that any resolution must involve Russia in the dialogue process.
  • No Battlefield Solutions: Stressed that solutions cannot be achieved on the battlefield.
  • Active Engagement: India is actively engaged and concerned about finding a resolution, with ongoing discussions with both Russia and Ukraine.
• Hosting Peace Conference: Jaishankar noted that while suggestions for India to host a peace conference have been made, there is no commitment from India to propose or host such a conference.
• Recent Diplomacy: Referenced Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv and highlighted National Security Adviser Ajit Doval's current visit to Russia.

Diplomatic Discussions with Germany

• Bilateral Meeting: Jaishankar met with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in Berlin to prepare for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to New Delhi on October 24-25.
• Topics of Discussion:
  • Global Issues: Discussed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Gaza conflict, and coordination for the UN Summit of the Future.
  • UN Security Council Expansion: India and Germany are jointly advocating for the expansion of the UN Security Council.
• Ongoing Engagement: Both ministers will reconvene later this month at the UN General Assembly.

India-Germany Relations

• Germany’s Role: Baerbock acknowledged ongoing discussions with India and other countries about their roles in peace efforts, despite differing positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Economic and Trade Relations:
  • Migration and Mobility: Plans to enhance the India-Germany migration and mobility partnership, aiming to increase the number of skilled Indian workers in Germany. Currently, 125,000 Indian nationals work and 50,000 students study in Germany.
  • Military Cooperation: Discussed expanding military partnerships, including joint air force exercises and upcoming naval exercises in Goa.
  • Trade and Investment: Efforts to boost annual bilateral trade to $30 billion and attract about $25 billion in investment from Germany. New Delhi will host the Asia Pacific Conference of German Business next month.