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The Global Carbon Project’s (GCP) 2025 assessment presents a crucial shift in India’s carbon emissions trajectory, showing a rise of only 1.4% in 2025 compared to the 4% increase recorded in 2024. This moderation is significant for a country that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly coal, and is the third-largest emitter in the world after China and the United States. While India’s emissions continue to grow in absolute terms, the rate of growth has slowed considerably, indicating structural changes driven by renewable energy expansion, improved energy efficiency, favourable weather conditions, and long-term policy planning.

India’s fossil-fuel CO? emissions are projected to increase from 3.19 billion tonnes in 2024 to 3.22 billion tonnes in 2025, but its per-capita emissions remain at 2.2 tonnes, among the lowest within the G20 economies. Historically, India’s annual emission growth averaged 6.4% between 2005–2014, reducing to 3.6% during 2015–2024, reflecting improvements in carbon intensity and a shift toward cleaner energy systems. The slowdown in 2025 is partly attributed to a strong monsoon, which reduced cooling needs and irrigation demand, thereby lowering electricity consumption and limiting the rise in coal usage. Additionally, India’s rapid renewable energy expansion—now accounting for 50.07% of total installed power capacity (484.82 GW)—has played a decisive role in containing emissions growth. The country has already achieved its COP26 target of 50% non-fossil capacity five years ahead of schedule, with 242.8 GW in non-fossil sources, and continues progressing toward its 500-GW renewable capacity target for 2030.

Global trends, however, remain concerning. Fossil-fuel CO? emissions worldwide are expected to rise 1.1% in 2025, reaching 38.1 billion tonnes, with emissions from coal, oil and gas increasing by 0.8%, 1% and 1.3% respectively. China—responsible for the largest share of global emissions—shows moderation with growth at just 0.4%, driven by record-level renewable installations. Despite incremental progress in land-use emissions reduction, total global CO? emissions remain flat at around 42 billion tonnes, leaving the world off-track to meet the 1.5°C climate target. The GCP cautions that only 170 billion tonnes of CO?remain in the global carbon budget compatible with the 1.5°C threshold—equivalent to just four years of emissions at current rates—rendering the target increasingly unrealistic.

Within India, sectoral analysis shows the energy sector accounts for 75.66% of total greenhouse gas emissions, while land-based activities sequestered 522 million tonnes of CO? in 2020 (22% of national emissions). India’s 4th Biennial Update Report (BUR-4) to the UNFCCC recorded a 7.93% decline in 2020 emissions due to pandemic-related demand reduction. Coal remains dominant, but clean-energy additions helped reduce power-sector CO? emissions by 1% in early 2025.

India’s response is articulated through its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)centred on seven pillars:

• Clean electricity
• Low-carbon transport
• Inclusive urban adaptation
• Decarbonised industry
• Atmospheric CO? removal
• Tree and vegetation enhancement, and
• A net-zero-aligned economic framework aimed at achieving Net Zero by 2070.

In conclusion, while India’s emission slowdown reflects encouraging structural transitions and successful renewable energy deployment, sustained progress will require deeper industrial decarbonisation, resilient energy systems, and accelerated policy action to navigate rising global climate risks and narrowing carbon budgets.