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In a strategic shift, India has floated international tenders for constructing the long-stalled Sawalkote Hydroelectric Project (1,856 MW) on the Chenab River in Jammu & Kashmir, leveraging the fact that the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan is currently in abeyance. This development marks a significant turn in India’s water diplomacy and infrastructure planning.

Background & Project Details

• Location & Nature: Sawalkote is a run-of-river hydropower project near Sidhu village in Ramban district, J&K.
• Conception & Delay: Originally conceived in the 1980s, handed to NHPC in 1985, then returned to JKSPDC in 1997. Despite Rs 430 crore spent on enabling infrastructure, the project remained unstarted until a 2021 MoU revived it under an BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer) model.
• Tender Process: In July 2025, NHPC invited international bids (design, planning, engineering) with bid submissions due by September 10, 2025.
• Scale & Costs: Estimated cost stands at Rs 22,704.8 crore, set to be executed in two phases.
• Environmental Clearances: Forest Advisory Committee granted in-principle approval for diversion of 847 hectares of forest land.

Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) & Its Suspension

• Treaty Overview: Signed in 1960 (brokered by the World Bank), IWT allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, and the western rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) to Pakistan. India retains limited non-consumptive usage rights for hydro-power on these western rivers.
• First Suspension: On 23 April 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, India suspended the IWT, citing national security and the treaty’s exploitation by Pakistan for cross-border terrorism.
• Consequences: India ceased hydrological data sharing, blocked Pakistani access to project visits, and released annual joint-status reporting—effectively halting treaty obligations.
• Strategic Intent: This pause grants India freedom to launch projects like Sawalkote without Pakistan’s prior objections or IWT constraints.

Geopolitical Tensions & Ramifications

• Long-term Impact on Pakistan: The Indus system sustains ~80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and electricity. Disruption could severely undermine food security, hydropower production, and urban water supply.
• Symbolism of a Rift: The treaty had survived wars and conflicts. Its suspension is viewed as an overt break in regional cooperative norms, with potential for conflict escalation.
• Legal & Diplomatic Fallout: Pakistan views reduced water flows as “act of war”; it is exploring legal avenues and appealing for treaty revival.
• India’s Firm Stance: PM Modi has labeled the treaty “unjust,” declared “blood and water cannot flow together,” further hardening India's negotiating posture.

Strategic Evaluation

• Violation or Tactical Move? While the IWT allows limited usage by India, its suspension indicates a focus on infrastructure autonomy over the western river system.
• Regional Domino Effects: With rising global water disputes, actions like this may set precedent in viewing water as geopolitical leverage.
• Environmental & Social Risks: Dam construction and forest diversion raise ecological concerns; plus, local displacement and compensation need careful handling.