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In August 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Oreshnik hypersonic missile—a new-generation intermediate-range ballistic missile—has entered production and military service. Plans are underway to deploy the system in Belarus by the end of 2025, signalling a major escalation in Russia’s standoff with NATO amid the Ukraine conflict.

Key Features

• Type: Intermediate-range, solid-fuel, mobile, hypersonic ballistic missile
• First Operational Use: November 2024, in a strike on Ukraine’s Pivdenmashdefence facility at Dnipro
• Speed: Capable of reaching Mach 10 (10 times the speed of sound)
• Range: Approx. 5,000 km (3,100 miles), bringing the entirety of Europe within its strike zone
• Warhead Capability:
  • Carries conventional or nuclear warheads
  • Equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), allowing simultaneous strikes on multiple targets
• Strategic Advantage: Hypersonic speed, mid-flight manoeuvrability, and MIRV capability make it virtually immune to interception by current Western missile defence systems

Strategic Context

• Belarus as a Forward Base:
  • Belarus shares a 673-mile border with Ukraine, making it strategically vital.
  • It already hosts Russian troops and tactical nuclear weapons.
  • Deployment of Oreshnik here allows Moscow to project power deeper into Europe.
• Nuclear Security Pact (2023):
  • Russia and Belarus signed an agreement placing Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella.
  • Russia retains the right to use nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus if “aggression” is perceived.
  • Belarus has reportedly hosted “several dozen” Russian nuclear weapons since late 2024.
• Geopolitical Implications:
  • Russia warned NATO against supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking inside Russia.
  • Putin cautioned that Russia could retaliate with systems like Oreshnik “even beyond Ukraine.”
  • By suggesting that conventional Oreshnik strikes could be as devastating as nuclear attacks, Moscow is raising deterrence levels against the West.

Implications for Global Security

• Erosion of Arms Control: With the collapse of Cold War-era treaties like the INF Treaty (1987), weapons such as Oreshnik operate in a largely unregulated environment.
• Escalation of NATO–Russia Rivalry: The missile’s deployment in Belarus expands Russia’s strike capability across Europe, heightening NATO security concerns.
• Nuclear Threshold Ambiguity: Oreshnik’s dual capability (conventional and nuclear) blurs the line between conventional warfare and nuclear escalation.
• Arms Race in Hypersonics: The U.S., China, and other powers are also developing hypersonic weapons, intensifying competition in next-generation strategic arms.