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The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has warned that plastic use and waste in Southeast and East Asia could nearly double by 2050 unless countries adopt urgent and stringent policy measures. The findings are particularly significant as they coincide with the final round of UN negotiations on a global plastics treaty scheduled in August 2025 in Geneva.

Key Findings of the OECD Report

1. Surge in Plastic Use and Waste

• Plastic consumption in the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region – which includes ASEAN-10 (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) plus China, Japan, and South Korea – is projected to rise from 152 million tonnes (2022) to 280 million tonnes (2050).
• Plastic waste will increase from 113 million tonnes (2022) to 242 million tonnes (2050).
• Packaging waste alone will almost double, from 49 million tonnes to 91 million tonnes.

2. Regional Disparities

• China will see the largest absolute rise, from 76 million tonnes (2022) to 160 million tonnes (2050).
• Lower-middle-income ASEAN nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines will see the sharpest relative increase, with plastic waste nearly quadrupling from 7.5 million tonnes to 28 million tonnes.

3. Mismanaged Waste and Leakage

• Share of mismanaged plastic waste may fall (29% → 23% between 2022–2050), but total mismanaged waste will grow from 33 million tonnes to 56 million tonnes.
• The region is already the largest contributor to global plastic leakage – 8.4 million tonnes in 2022 (one-third of global leakage), projected to rise to 14.1 million tonnes by 2050.
• Plastic build-up:
  • Freshwater systems: from 57 million tonnes (2022) → 126 million tonnes (2050).
  • Oceans: from 17 million tonnes (2022) → 55 million tonnes (2050).

4. Climate Implications

• Greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic lifecycle (production + waste management) in the APT region are expected to nearly double from 0.6 GtCO?e (2022) to over 1 GtCO?e (2050).

Global High Stringency Scenario: Pathway to Solutions

OECD outlines a Global High Stringency (GHS) policy scenario that can reverse the trajectory:

• Plastic use: Could drop by 28% by 2050.
• Plastic waste: Could fall by 23%.
• Recycling: Average recycling rate could reach 54%, with secondary plastics meeting all future demand growth.
• Mismanaged waste: Could decline by 97%, drastically reducing environmental leakage.

Key recommended measures:

• Phase out single-use plastics.
• Strengthen waste collection systems and invest in recycling infrastructure.
• Promote circular economy approaches and regional cooperation.

Regional and Global Implications

• Cross-border challenge: Plastics persist for decades and move across boundaries. Poorer ASEAN nations like Indonesia often receive waste leakage from wealthier neighbours and China, with spillover impacts reaching the Indian Ocean and African coasts.
• Climate risks: Rising plastic demand intensifies emissions, undermining climate action goals.
• Global treaty negotiations: The report’s timing strengthens the case for an ambitious legally binding plastics treaty.