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Permafrost, the ground that remains frozen for at least two years, has long been a critical feature in high-altitude regions like the Kashmir Himalayas. Recent studies have highlighted that melting permafrost is emerging as a significant environmental threat, with the potential to disrupt both ecological systems and infrastructure in the region.

Key Findings of Recent Studies

• Extent of Permafrost: Permafrost covers 64.8% of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh, with 26.7% being continuous, 23.8% discontinuous, and 14.3% sporadic.
• Regional Distribution: Ladakh has the highest concentration of permafrost (87%), while areas like the Shigar Valley and Siwaliks have no permafrost.
• Impact on Infrastructure: Permafrost degradation threatens key infrastructure, including roads, settlements, and hydropower projects. Approximately 193 km of roads, 2,415 households, and eight hydropower projects are at risk due to thawing permafrost.
• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): Permafrost thaw increases the likelihood of GLOFs, as seen in recent events like the 2021 Chamoli disaster and the 2023 South Lhonak GLOF. These floods, triggered by the instability of glacial lakes formed by melting ice, can cause significant destruction.

Environmental Impacts of Permafrost Thawing

• Carbon Release: As permafrost melts, it releases stored organic carbon, including methane, a potent greenhouse gas that exacerbates climate change.
• Hydrological Changes: Thawing permafrost can alter river flow and groundwater availability, impacting water resources for local communities and ecosystems.
• Geological Instability: The breakdown of permafrost leads to landslides and slope instability, posing risks to both natural landscapes and human settlements.

Factors Contributing to Permafrost Degradation

1. Global Warming: Rising surface temperatures are the primary driver of permafrost thaw.
2. Human Activities: Construction activities, including road-building, dam construction, and real estate development, disturb the stability of permafrost. Additionally, deforestation and land-use changes increase the exposure of permafrost to solar radiation, accelerating its degradation.
3. Natural Events: Earthquakes and natural processes, like rock-ice avalanches, also contribute to the destabilization of permafrost.

Risks to Local Communities and Infrastructure

• Vulnerable Regions: Thousands of households and critical infrastructure in permafrost-rich areas, such as Ladakh, are at risk due to permafrost thawing. Military and strategic infrastructure, including roads vital for connectivity, may face serious disruptions, compromising national security.
• Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): The melting of glaciers can lead to the formation of proglacial lakes, increasing the risk of GLOFs. In J&K, 332 such lakes have been identified, with 65 showing significant flood risks. GLOFs are a major threat to downstream communities and infrastructure.

Way Forward: Mitigating Risks

• Integrated Planning: Future infrastructure development, especially roads and hydropower projects, should incorporate data on permafrost zones. Risk-sensitive land-use planning and construction methods must be adopted to minimize environmental damage.
• Enhanced Monitoring: Remote sensing technologies, including satellite-based monitoring and ground-based LiDAR systems, should be employed to track permafrost degradation and associated environmental changes more effectively.
• Comprehensive Environmental Assessments: Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) must be strengthened to include the risks of permafrost thawing, particularly in relation to GLOFs, landslides, and groundwater depletion. This is crucial for ensuring that development projects in these regions do not exacerbate the environmental risks posed by permafrost degradation.