In News:

The Samson Option, Israel’s controversial and undeclared nuclear deterrence doctrine, has returned to global focus amid escalating military strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure under Operation Rising Lion (June 2025). The rising risk of a multi-front conflict involving Iran, Hezbollah, and Houthi actors has revived global concerns over nuclear escalation in the volatile Middle East.

What is the Samson Option?

• Definition: Israel’s nuclear annihilation doctrine of last resort, based on the principle of massive retaliation in case of an existential threat to the state.
• Doctrine Type: Deterrence-by-retaliation, not first use.
• Strategic Intent: Not to deter routine threats, but to ensure mutual destruction if Israel faces annihilation.
• Named After: Samson, a biblical warrior who destroyed himself and his enemies in a final act of vengeance (Judges 13–16).

Key Features

Feature                                                      Details

Ambiguity (Amimut)           Israel neither confirms nor denies its nuclear arsenal.

Nuclear Capability               Estimated 80–400 nuclear warheads, with delivery via land (Jericho missiles), air, and sea.

Indigenous Development  Secret nuclear program began in the 1950s under Ben-Gurion with aid from France & Norway.

Delivery Platforms                         Multi-platform: land-based missiles (Jericho series), aircraft, and submarines.

Psychological Warfare             Operates as a psychological deterrent, not an openly declared policy.

Policy Origin                      Popularized by Seymour Hersh’s 1991 book, built upon disclosures by whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu (1986).

Historical Evolution

• 1950s–60s: Nuclear ambitions began under PM David Ben-Gurion.
• 1967: Believed to have assembled first nuclear weapon by Six-Day War.
• Public Position: “We will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East” – Shimon Peres to JFK.
• Doctrinal Continuity: Israel remains outside the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and follows the policy of opacity to this day.

Why It’s in Focus Now: Operation Rising Lion & 2025 Escalations

• Operation Rising Lion (June 2025): Israel’s largest campaign against Iran’s nuclear sites since the 1981 Osirak raid.
• Iran’s Response: Ballistic missile and drone counterstrikes tested Israel’s air defences (Iron Dome, Arrow-3).
• Multi-Front Threats: Escalations from Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi threats in the Red Sea, and tension in Gaza heighten risks of a regional conflagration.
• Red Lines: Any mass-casualty attack involving WMDs (chemical/radiological) may activate Israel’s last-resort nuclear doctrine.

Implications for the Region and the World

• Security and Strategic Balance
  • Israel’s nuclear ambiguity complicates strategic planning for adversaries.
  • Shapes arms acquisition strategies of regional players like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
• Geoeconomic and Business Fallout
  • Oil Market Volatility: Brent crude hit $102/barrel after Israeli strike on Natanz.
  • Defence Sector Boom: Surge in defence procurement by Gulf States; U.S. firms like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin benefit.
  • Investor Uncertainty: Rising nuclear rhetoric rattles financial markets and international investors.
• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Challenges
  • Israel’s position outside the NPT undermines the credibility of global arms control.
  • Inspires double standards debate and pressures nations like Iran to pursue deterrent paths.
• Cyber Deterrence and Intelligence Warfare
  • Past cyber ops like Stuxnet (U.S.–Israel malware attack on Iran’s nuclear centrifuges) re-emerging.
  • Cyber warfare now considered part of the extended nuclear deterrent architecture.