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China’s construction of a $167.8 billion hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) river near the “Great Bend” in Tibet has raised significant geopolitical, ecological, and strategic concerns, particularly for downstream nations like India and Bangladesh. Once completed, this 60,000 MW project—three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam—will be the world’s largest.

Strategic and Environmental Concerns

The dam is being built in the seismically active and ecologically fragile Medog region, just before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang. The Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh has termed the project an “existential threat,” warning that sudden release of water or structural failure could lead to catastrophic flooding and irreversible damage to tribal livelihoods and ecosystems.

Experts reinforce these concerns, citing the risks posed by potential seismic activity, landslides, and unregulated dam operations in a region lacking robust transboundary water governance. Any significant disruption to the river’s natural flow could also affect biodiversity, agriculture, and hydrological patterns in India’s northeast.

The Assam Perspective

Assam, heavily dependent on the Brahmaputra, faces both risks and possible benefits. The state’s Chief Minister has noted that only 30–35% of the river’s flow originates in China, with the majority contributed by monsoon rains and tributaries from Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan. He suggested that reduced upstream flow might even aid in managing Assam’s annual floods. Nonetheless, the absence of definitive impact assessments necessitates caution.

India’s Diplomatic Position

India, as a lower riparian state, has consistently raised its concerns regarding upstream hydroelectric projects on transboundary rivers. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has reiterated the need for transparency, data-sharing, and prior consultation, aligning with global principles of equitable and reasonable use of international rivers.

China, while asserting its sovereign right to develop its rivers, has claimed it is cooperating with downstream nations through hydrological data sharing and disaster mitigation. However, the lack of a legally binding treaty between India and China on water-sharing limits enforceability and fosters mistrust.

Recent diplomatic engagements—including talks in October 2024 and March 2025—have included discussions on river cooperation. India’s decision to resume visas for Chinese tourists and reinitiate the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra indicates a cautious yet strategic engagement policy amid persistent challenges.

Mitigation and Strategic Preparedness

India’s policy response must be comprehensive. Key mitigation measures include:

• Scientific Assessment and Monitoring: Real-time hydrological monitoring and risk modeling are essential.
• Infrastructure Development: Projects like the Upper Siang hydroelectric dam in Arunachal Pradesh, despite environmental concerns, are strategically vital as buffers against sudden flow variations.
• Interlinking of Rivers: Long-term plans to link Brahmaputra tributaries with the Ganga basin can help redistribute water during surplus and scarcity.
• Regional Cooperation: Coordination with other riparian nations such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar is vital for developing early warning systems and emergency protocols.

Conclusion

The Brahmaputra dam issue encapsulates the complex interplay of sovereignty, ecology, security, and diplomacy in transboundary river management. For India, it presents both a strategic challenge and an opportunity to strengthen its internal preparedness while advancing regional cooperation. A balanced, evidence-driven, and diplomatically assertive approach is critical to safeguarding national interests and promoting regional water security.