Introduction

Cybersecurity has emerged as a critical component of national security in the digital era. India, with its expanding digital footprint, is increasingly facing threats from transnational cybercrime syndicates. A recent analysis by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) reveals a staggering Rs 1,000 crore loss per month due to cyber frauds originating from Southeast Asian countries, posing a serious threat to the Indian economy and internal security.

Magnitude of the Threat

• According to the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) under MHA: In the first five months of 2025, cyber frauds caused a total loss of around Rs 7,000 crore.
• Over 50% of the losses were attributed to networks operating from Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Modus Operandi

• Fraud Centers: Operate from high-security scam compounds, primarily in Cambodia (45 identified), Laos (5), and Myanmar (1), allegedly run by Chinese operators.
• Forced Labor: Trafficked individuals, including more than 5,000 Indians, were reportedly forced to carry out cyber frauds under coercion.
• Types of Scams:
  • Stock trading/investment scams
  • Digital arrest scams
  • Task-based/investment-based scams

Recruitment Networks and Source States

• Recruitment agents operate largely from:
  • Maharashtra (59 agents)
  • Tamil Nadu (51)
  • Jammu & Kashmir (46)
  • Uttar Pradesh (41)
  • Delhi (38)
• Travel Routes Tracked:
  • Routes include India to Cambodia via Dubai, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, etc.
  • Cities involved include Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Jaipur, Lucknow, Kochi, and Kolkata.

Government Response

• Diplomatic Engagement:
  • Cambodian officials met Indian authorities (MEA and Central agencies) in Delhi.
  • Requested geographical coordinates of scam centers for local enforcement action.
• Inter-Ministerial Committee: Formed to identify systemic loopholes in banking, telecom, and immigration sectors.
• CBI Investigation: Registered FIRs against PoS agents involved in issuing ghost SIM cards aiding cybercrime.

Wider Implications

• Global Human Trafficking Concern: Victims from Africa, East Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Europe, and the Americas have been found in these compounds.
• Transnational Organized Crime: The scams highlight growing cooperation between international criminal networks, using digital tools to exploit vulnerabilities across borders.

Conclusion

The scale and transnational nature of cyber frauds targeting India from Southeast Asia require a coordinated national and international response. Strengthening cyber intelligence, cross-border cooperation, digital infrastructure resilience, and public awareness are vital to securing India's cyberspace. Proactive steps such as bilateral cooperation, inter-agency coordination, and targeted enforcement are crucial to mitigate this growing internal security threat.

Context:

The Protection of Civil Rights (PCR) Act, 1955, a legislative tool to eliminate untouchability as mandated under Article 17 of the Indian Constitution, remains grossly under-implemented. The 2022 report by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment paints a dismal picture of enforcement, revealing structural deficiencies in India's pursuit of social justice, cultural preservation, and inclusive development.

Despite the Act’s objective of eradicating untouchability—manifested in denial of access to public spaces, religious institutions, and essential services—there has been a sharp decline in First Information Reports (FIRs) over the years. Only 13 cases were registered in 2022, compared to 24 in 2021 and 25 in 2020. Alarmingly, no State or Union Territory has declared any area as “untouchability-prone,” raising concerns over administrative apathy and underreporting.

The judicial and police response has been equally lackluster. Out of 1,242 cases pending trial under the PCR Act in 2022, over 97% remain unresolved. Out of 31 cases disposed that year, 30 ended in acquittal, with only one conviction, reflecting a near-total failure in ensuring accountability. Similarly, of the 51 cases pending with police, chargesheets were filed in just 12. This highlights serious procedural and evidentiary lapses, lack of capacity, and perhaps, implicit biases in law enforcement and judicial systems.

In contrast, cases under the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989 (PoA Act) have shown an increasing trend, suggesting better awareness and enforcement. This disparity calls for equal policy attention to the PCR Act, especially considering its centrality in upholding the constitutional promise of equality and dignity.

What makes the findings even more concerning is their impact on India’s cultural and linguistic diversity. Many communities that are victims of untouchability also belong to linguistic or tribal minorities. These include speakers of endangered languages, regional dialects, and culturally distinct groups. The systemic neglect of untouchability cases undermines not just civil rights but also the preservation of traditional knowledge systems, oral histories, and linguistic secularism enshrined in Article 29 of the Constitution.

The absence of proactive policy measures—such as identification of vulnerable zones, awareness programs, legal aid, or cultural inclusion initiatives—threatens the composite culture of the nation. Moreover, the decline in registration indicates a lack of trust in legal redressal mechanisms and failure to empower marginalized communities through effective grievance redressal.

To address these challenges, a multi-pronged strategy is essential. This includes:

• Strengthening special courts and fast-tracking trials under the PCR Act.
• Capacity-building and sensitization programs for police and judiciary.
• Empowering local governance institutions to report and act on untouchability practices.
• Implementing UNESCO-backed initiatives to preserve linguistic heritage.
• Introducing language training and interpretation services to reduce communication gaps.
• Leveraging multilingual education policies to integrate cognitive development with cultural preservation.

In conclusion, the declining efficacy of the PCR Act undermines India's constitutional ethos of equality, fraternity, and cultural integration. A robust, inclusive, and culturally sensitive legal framework is imperative to protect the rights of the marginalized and to uphold the pluralistic spirit of the Indian nation.

In News:

The recent 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro (2025) has reignited tensions between the United States and the expanding BRICS grouping. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who remains a dominant figure in Republican politics, has threatened to impose 10% tariffs on all BRICS nations, framing the bloc as a challenge to American economic hegemony. These threats signal a continuation of Trump's confrontational approach to global trade and reflect deeper anxieties about de-dollarisation efforts emerging from the Global South.

Trump’s concerns stem from what he perceives as an "anti-American" orientation of BRICS. The group's discussions around a common currency, increased use of national currencies, and the development of alternative cross-border payment systems have been interpreted by Trump as an attempt to weaken the U.S. dollar’s central role in international finance. This fear has been intensified post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which saw several countries reconsider their reliance on dollar-based systems like SWIFT, particularly after Russia’s exclusion from them due to Western sanctions.

In response, Trump has floated punitive trade measures: a 10% tariff on BRICS-aligned nations, 50% on Brazil for its domestic political stance, and 30% on South Africa citing trade disputes and minority rights issues. He is also advocating for the Sanctioning Russia Act, 2025, which proposes an astronomical 500% tariff on Russian oil and related products. Such a move could disrupt oil-importing economies like India and China, both of which have deepened energy ties with Moscow in recent years.

However, BRICS leaders have clarified that de-dollarisation is not about dismantling the dollar-based order but about financial diversification and resilience. The Rio Declaration 2025 stopped short of any anti-U.S. language, instead emphasizing interoperability of payment systems and equitable reform of global institutions. This demonstrates a cautious diplomatic approach aimed at asserting economic agency without triggering direct confrontation.

India, in particular, has taken a measured stance. In Parliament, the Indian government distanced itself from suggestions that BRICS was pursuing an aggressive de-dollarisation agenda. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reiterated that India has no official policy to replace the U.S. dollar, and that BRICS decisions are not monolithic but reflect the diversity of its member states. This is crucial, given India’s strategic balancing between the West and the Global South.

Founded in 2009 amid discontent with Western-dominated financial structures, BRICS has expanded to include 10 members, with new entrants like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE, and Indonesia. While united by frustration over Western dominance, internal diversity—economic, political, and strategic—ensures that BRICS does not function as a rigid anti-West alliance.

At the Rio summit, BRICS condemned unilateral tariff practices and expressed concern over attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, showcasing solidarity without directly naming the U.S. or its allies. This signals a shift toward multilateral diplomacy grounded in soft balancing rather than confrontation.

In conclusion, while Trump’s tariff threats underline U.S. anxiety over shifting global power structures, BRICS’ response suggests a nuanced recalibration of the international order—not a radical overhaul. For India, the challenge remains to harness BRICS for strategic autonomy without undermining its multi-aligned foreign policy posture.

In News:

On June 12, 2025, Air India flight AI 171, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner en route from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick, tragically crashed shortly after takeoff, killing 260 people—including 19 on the ground—in what is now the deadliest aviation disaster involving an Indian airline in four decades. A preliminary report by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) has placed the aircraft’s fuel control switches at the centre of the crash investigation.

Fuel Control Switches: Function and Design

Fuel control switches are critical safety components that regulate the flow of fuel to aircraft engines. On a Boeing 787, equipped in this case with two GE engines, these switches are located below the thrust levers and are spring-loaded and bracket-protected to prevent accidental activation. They require a deliberate two-step manual action—lifting the switch and moving it between two positions:

• RUN: Allows fuel flow for engine operation.
• CUTOFF: Cuts fuel flow, effectively shutting down the engine.

These switches are typically used on the ground for engine startup and shutdown, and only in-flight during an engine failure or critical damage. Modern twin-engine aircraft like the 787 are capable of continuing flight on a single engine, making the simultaneous use of both switches highly unusual and dangerous.

Sequence of Events: Preliminary Findings

According to flight data from the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), both engine fuel control switches were moved from ‘RUN’ to ‘CUTOFF’ within seconds of each other, shortly after takeoff. This led to simultaneous loss of thrust in both engines. Moments later, both switches were returned to the ‘RUN’ position, but by then the aircraft had lost critical altitude and control.

The cockpit recording captured one pilot asking the other why the fuel was cut off. The other responded that he had not done so. The pilots—Captain Sumeet Sabharwal with over 8,600 flying hours on the 787, and Co-pilot Clive Kundar with 1,100 hours—were both adequately experienced.

Technical and Human Factors under scrutiny

Aviation experts argue that accidental activation of both switches is nearly impossible due to the stop-lock mechanism and protective brackets. However, speculation persists over a possible technical malfunction, human error, or incorrect engine identification. A theory suggests that one engine may have failed and the pilots mistakenly shut down the working engine, though this remains unconfirmed.

Attention has also turned to the switches themselves, manufactured by Honeywell (Part No. 4TL837-3D). A 2018 FAA advisory had flagged potential issues with their locking mechanisms but did not mandate corrective action. Air India reportedly did not conduct voluntary checks, raising questions about maintenance protocols.

Conclusion:

The AI 171 crash highlights critical lapses in cockpit procedures, technical maintenance, and possibly design flaws. It underscores the need for stringent implementation of safety advisories, thorough crew training, and the use of redundant safety mechanisms. As investigations continue, the incident may prompt global regulatory reviews on cockpit ergonomics and fuel system safety protocols, reinforcing the imperative of fail-safe systems in civil aviation.

In News:

The Maharashtra Special Public Security Bill, 2024, passed by the Legislative Assembly, aims to combat “urban Maoism” and left-wing extremism (LWE). Modeled on the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), the Bill introduces stringent provisions to identify and dismantle urban support networks aiding insurgents. However, it has generated significant legal and civil liberty concerns due to its vague definitions, broad executive powers, and pre-trial punitive measures.

Understanding Urban Maoism

Urban Maoism refers to the strategy of the banned CPI (Maoist) to infiltrate cities and mobilise intellectuals, students, professionals, and minorities through NGOs, protests, and media campaigns. This ideology, outlined in the 2004 document Strategies and Tactics of Indian Revolution (STIR), aims to build urban logistical support for rural armed struggles while operating under the legal guise of activism, journalism, or civil society work. Notable examples include the Elgar Parishad case (2018), where activists were arrested for alleged Maoist links following Bhima Koregaon violence.

Key Provisions of the Bill

The Bill allows the government to declare an organisation “unlawful” and penalises individuals associated with it—whether through membership, fundraising, or aiding operations. It defines “unlawful activity” as interference with public order, use of criminal force against officials, incitement to disobedience of the law, or even disrupting communication systems. Punishments range from 2 to 7 years of imprisonment along with fines. All offences are cognizable and non-bailable.

A major provision allows pre-trial forfeiture of property belonging to accused persons or organisations, with only 15 days’ notice. While the affected party can appeal to the High Court within 30 days, the initial declaration is confirmed only by an Advisory Board comprising High Court-qualified persons.

Constitutional and Legal Concerns

Civil society and legal experts argue that the Bill risks criminalising legitimate dissent and peaceful protest, given its ambiguous phrasing like “practising disobedience” or “generating apprehension in the public.” Unlike the UAPA, which requires a higher threshold for proving threat to national integrity, Maharashtra’s Bill introduces lower benchmarks that could conflate dissent with sedition.

The pre-trial forfeiture of property mirrors provisions in the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), yet lacks equivalent safeguards like adjudication by a quasi-judicial body. Moreover, principles of natural justice, such as presumption of innocence and burden of proof on the state, appear diluted.

Broader Implications

While the state’s intent to counter urban LWE influence is valid—especially given the shift of Maoist strategies from forested hinterlands to urban centres—the means adopted pose risks to constitutional rights and federal norms. The legislation exemplifies a growing trend where extraordinary laws designed for national threats are adapted at the state level, potentially disrupting the balance between security imperatives and civil liberties.

Conclusion

The Maharashtra Special Public Security Bill reflects the complex challenge of safeguarding national security while upholding democratic freedoms. Any future enactment must incorporate judicial oversight, clearer definitions, and proportionate safeguards to ensure that the fight against extremism does not erode the fundamental rights enshrined in the Constitution.

In News:

India’s foreign policy has witnessed a dynamic recalibration with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s expansive visit to Brazil, Ghana, Trinidad & Tobago, Argentina, and Namibia. While participation in the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro was central, the broader aim was to deepen India’s leadership role within the Global South — a diverse group of developing nations in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.

Reclaiming Leadership in the Global South

India has long championed the cause of the Global South, grounded in its non-aligned foreign policy legacy and postcolonial solidarity. This identity was rejuvenated through:

• Hosting two Voice of the Global South Summits (2023, 2024), giving a platform to over 125 developing countries.
• Advocating for and securing African Union’s permanent membership in the G20 during its presidency, symbolizing India’s commitment to an inclusive global governance architecture.

These initiatives portray India as a bridge between the Global North and South, positioning itself as a leader that represents the interests of the voiceless in multilateral forums.

Diplomatic Course Correction: The Gaza Challenge

India’s explicit support for Israel during the Gaza conflict (post-October 7, 2023) triggered discomfort among many Global South countries, especially in the Arab and African regions that strongly support the Palestinian cause. Consequences included:

• India’s defeat to Pakistan in the UNESCO Executive Board Vice-Chair election.
• Limited engagement from key Global South nations in the Second Voice of the Global South Summit.

Recognizing these diplomatic setbacks, India recalibrated its stance. At the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (2024) and the 2025 Rio BRICS Summit, India joined in expressing grave concern over Israeli military operations in Gaza and condemned strikes on Iran, signaling a return to its balanced, multivector diplomacy.

Strategic Gains at BRICS: Securing Core Interests

India also used the BRICS platform to secure vital national interests. The BRICS Leaders’ Declaration condemned the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir and called for combating terrorism, including cross-border terror financing. This was diplomatically significant, given:

• China’s prior reluctance to name Pakistan-based terror actors.
• BRICS’ growing relevance in shaping global narratives.

India’s success in inserting its security concerns into multilateral dialogue marks a maturing assertiveness in diplomacy.

Countering China, Offering Alternatives

India’s proactive outreach also serves to counter China’s rising influence in the Global South. Unlike Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, India emphasizes:

• Transparent, demand-driven development assistance.
• Capacity-building and digital partnerships.
• Ethical, sustainable models of cooperation.

Through initiatives like International Solar Alliance, Digital Public Infrastructure partnerships, and humanitarian aid, India offers a democratic, credible alternative to Chinese financing and infrastructure diplomacy.

Conclusion:

India’s current foreign policy trajectory reflects a delicate balancing act—protecting strategic partnerships with global powers while retaining the trust of fellow developing nations. As global multipolarity deepens, India’s role as a consensus builder, ethical voice, and pragmatic actor will shape its success in becoming the leading voice of the Global South.

In News:

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), signed in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro and enforced from 1994, is the central international treaty to combat climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. With 198 member countries and an annual Conference of the Parties (COP), the UNFCCC provides the primary forum for negotiating global climate action. However, in recent years, its credibility has come under scrutiny due to persistent inaction, structural inefficiencies, and failure to deliver climate justice—particularly for developing nations.

The Credibility Crisis: Key Concerns

A major source of discontent is the failure of developed countries to meet both emission reduction targets and financial commitments under the Paris Agreement and earlier protocols. Vulnerable nations—especially small island developing states (SIDS) and low-income countries—have raised concerns over exclusion from critical negotiations, lack of accountability from wealthier nations, and limited progress on equity and justice.

The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement during the Trump administration further damaged trust in the multilateral climate process, reinforcing perceptions of the UNFCCC as an ineffective and increasingly irrelevant institution.

Bonn Meeting and Brazil’s Role Ahead of COP30

The mid-year climate talks in Bonn (June 2025) aimed to restore faith in the negotiation process ahead of COP30, to be hosted by Brazil. Brazil has taken an active leadership role by proposing a comprehensive 30-point reform agenda, seeking to make negotiations more inclusive, transparent, and results-oriented.

Proposed Structural Reforms

Key reform suggestions emerging from Brazil and other stakeholders include:

• Streamlining negotiation procedures by eliminating repetitive agenda items, reducing negotiation time, and capping delegation sizes to prevent overcrowding and domination by rich nations.
• Restricting host eligibility: Proposals advocate barring countries with poor climate records—particularly fossil fuel-reliant nations—from hosting COPs. This follows criticism over COP28 (UAE) and COP29 (Azerbaijan).
• Mainstreaming climate discourse across other international platforms, such as the UN General Assembly, IMF, and multilateral banks, to enable faster action through complementary mechanisms.

The Unmet Climate Finance Pledge

Climate finance remains the most contentious issue. Under the Paris Agreement, developed countries had pledged $100 billion per year by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. However, at the Baku (COP29) meeting, a new proposal of $300 billion per year starting 2035 fell far short of the actual requirement—estimated at $1.3 trillion annually.

Developing countries, especially BRICS and G77, have demanded urgent action to define a new climate finance goal. They stressed the need for finance to be predictable, equitable, and accessible to all vulnerable nations.

Role of Civil Society and Observers

There is growing demand from civil society organizations and observer groups for reforms to ensure greater transparency, restrict the influence of fossil fuel lobbies, and democratize the negotiation process.

Conclusion

While significant reforms may face resistance due to entrenched geopolitical and economic interests, Brazil’s proactive approach marks a turning point. If supported, these efforts could rejuvenate the UNFCCC process by embedding inclusivity, accountability, and justice at its core—essential for addressing the escalating global climate crisis.

In News:

Tamil Nadu has become the first Indian state to integrate a predictive model for tuberculosis (TB) deaths into its State TB Elimination Programme. This initiative, in partnership with the Indian Council of Medical Research’s National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), marks a significant step in India’s public health innovation, aimed at reducing TB-related mortality through data-driven, early intervention strategies.

The model has been embedded within the existing TB SeWA (Severe TB Web Application) platform, launched under the state’s Tamil Nadu Kasanoi Erappila Thittam (TN-KET), a differentiated care initiative operational since 2022. It enables real-time triaging and prioritisation of severely ill patients at the time of diagnosis, improving early access to hospital care—a crucial step, as over 70% of TB deaths occur within the first two months of treatment.

How the Predictive Model Works

The model is based on five triage indicators:

• Body Mass Index (BMI)
• Pedal oedema (foot/ankle swelling)
• Respiratory rate
• Oxygen saturation
• Ability to stand without support

Healthcare workers input these variables into the TB SeWA app, which calculates a predicted probability of death, ranging from 10% to 50% for severely ill patients. For those not flagged, the risk ranges between 1% and 4%. This objective risk estimate empowers frontline health workers to make urgent and informed decisions about hospital admission and care.

Data used for model development included nearly 56,000 TB patients diagnosed in Tamil Nadu’s public health facilities between July 2022 and June 2023. Notably, 10–15% of adults with TB in the state were found to be severely ill at diagnosis. The model's predictive accuracy has been validated as equivalent to the national Ni-kshay portal, which captures a broader range of data but with a delay of up to three weeks—often too late for timely intervention.

Implementation and Impact

The model is now functional across all 2,800 public health facilities in Tamil Nadu, from Primary Health Centres to Medical Colleges. The average time from diagnosis to hospital admission is already around one day, but delays of 3–6 days still occur in about 25% of cases. By introducing objective, real-time risk assessment, the model aims to eliminate such delays and further reduce early TB deaths.

The TN-KET initiative has shown promising results: nearly two-thirds of districts have documented reduced mortality and losses in the TB care cascade. Tamil Nadu remains the only Indian state to systematically record and act upon these five triage variables at the point of diagnosis.

National and Global Relevance

India carries the highest TB burden globally, with two TB-related deaths every three minutes, according to the WHO. Tamil Nadu’s model aligns with global findings, such as those from Ethiopia, identifying low body weight, age, and TB/HIV co-infection as key mortality predictors. Addressing these early improves outcomes significantly.

This innovation presents a scalable, replicable model for other Indian states and developing nations striving to eliminate TB by 2030, in line with WHO’s End TB Strategy and India’s National Strategic Plan.

In News:

India's foreign trade landscape has undergone a fundamental transformation, with "invisible" trade—comprising services exports and private remittance inflows—emerging as a dominant contributor to foreign exchange earnings. Traditionally, international trade is associated with the export and import of physical goods. However, the increasing weight of intangibles such as services and remittances has positioned India as the “office of the world” in contrast to China’s role as the “factory of the world.”

Trends in India’s Visible vs Invisible Trade

India’s merchandise exports rose from $66.3 billion in 2003–04 to $456.1 billion in 2022–23, before dipping slightly to $441.8 billion in 2024–25. While goods exports have fluctuated with global economic cycles, invisibles have exhibited resilient and consistent growth.

• Invisible receipts increased from $53.5 billion in 2003–04 to $233.6 billion in 2013–14, and further to $576.5 billion in 2024–25.
• In 2024–25, invisible receipts exceeded merchandise exports by $135 billion, reversing the trend from a decade earlier.

Composition of Invisible Earnings

• Services Exports:
  • Valued at $387.5 billion in 2024–25, up from $26.9 billion in 2003–04.
  • Software services remain dominant ($180.6 billion), but significant growth has also been noted in business, financial, and communication services ($118 billion).
• Private Transfers (Remittances):
  • Amounted to $135.4 billion in 2024–25, up from $22.2 billion in 2003–04.
  • Reflects the export of Indian human capital, with inflows from expatriates, especially in the Gulf and North America.

Economic Significance

• Current Account Management: India’s merchandise trade deficit ballooned to $287.2 billion in 2024–25, but this was substantially offset by a net invisible surplus of $263.8 billion, keeping the current account deficit at $23.4 billion, lower than 2013–14 levels.
• Geopolitical Immunity: Invisible earnings have remained relatively insulated from global trade tensions, protectionist tariffs, and geopolitical shocks. Unlike goods trade, services have not been significantly impacted by events such as the pandemic or global conflicts.
• Limited Policy Support, High Impact: Despite minimal reliance on FTAs, tariff negotiations, or production-linked incentives, invisibles have flourished—highlighting the natural comparative advantage India holds in the global services and remittances market.

Comparison with China

China recorded a merchandise trade surplus of $768 billion in 2024, but faced a deficit of $344.1 billion on the invisibles front. In contrast, India posted a services trade surplus of $188.8 billion, emphasizing its role as a global service hub rather than a manufacturing powerhouse.

Conclusion

India’s foreign trade narrative has shifted decisively towards intangible exports. With robust growth in services and remittances, invisibles have become the invisible hand stabilizing India’s external sector. For sustained macroeconomic resilience, policymakers must now institutionalize support for the services sector, facilitate human capital mobility, and leverage digital infrastructure to enhance India’s global footprint in knowledge-based trade.

In News:

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the character of warfare, ushering in an era of “agentic warfare”—a paradigm where autonomous systems, not humans, are poised to dominate the battlefield. Military strategies today increasingly hinge on multi-domain operations (MDO) involving land, air, sea, cyber, and space, where decision-making speed, precision, and adaptability are crucial. AI is central to enabling this shift—but it comes with a critical caveat: energy dependency.

AI and the New Battlefield

Modern warfare relies on Big Data analytics, machine learning (ML), predictive modelling, and natural language processing (NLP)—tools that demand not only computational power but also massive energy inputs. Countries like China have already made significant strides. Its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is actively integrating AI into combat functions under the doctrine of “intelligentised warfare.” Applications range from automating artillery systems to deploying generative AI-enabled drones for radar targeting.

China’s AI developments, such as the DeepSeek model, complement battlefield deployments. Of concern to India is China’s support to Pakistan’s Centre of Artificial Intelligence and Computing (PAIC), which focuses on Cognitive Electronic Warfare. India’s Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lt Gen Rahul Singh, revealed that Pakistan possibly used real-time Chinese satellite intelligence and AI analytics during Operation Sindoor.

India’s Response and Gaps

India was an early mover, establishing the DRDO’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) in 1986 to develop AI applications for target recognition, navigation, logistics, and mine detection. However, the pace of deployment has lagged, especially compared to China. Lt Gen Amardeep Singh Aujla underlined the increasing intensity of warfare, emphasizing the necessity of C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) and civil-military fusion to enhance readiness.

The Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) notes the growing global use of AI in weapon systems, battlefield simulation, and cyber defence. For instance, Ukraine’s AI-powered drones have autonomously struck Russian oil facilities. Israel’s “Lavender” AI system has reportedly identified over 37,000 Hamas targets, exemplifying the real-time integration of AI in warfare.

Energy: The Hidden Backbone

While AI’s capabilities are evident, its energy appetite is equally significant. AI infrastructure—data centres, servers, and cooling systems—requires vast amounts of electricity, often from stable sources like nuclear energy. India’s current installed nuclear capacity (~7.5 GW) is starkly inadequate when compared to countries like South Korea (over 22 GW), limiting India's long-term AI defence potential.

Kris P. Singh, CEO of Holtec International, argues that Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) placed near AI data hubs could be the solution. He proposes co-locating SMRs with military or strategic data centres to power next-generation capabilities like drones, smart soldiers, and robotics. India's past policy to limit thermal power and insufficient storage in renewable energy has created grid instability, further compounding the challenge.

Way Forward

To remain strategically relevant, India must:

• Accelerate AI adoption in defence through institutional synergy and private sector participation.
• Invest in energy infrastructure, particularly clean, stable sources like SMRs.
• Promote indigenous AI R&D, focusing on secure, sovereign data ecosystems.
• Establish MDO doctrines incorporating AI, space, and cyber capabilities.

In the agentic age, the nation that combines AI mastery with robust energy capacity will define the future of warfare. India’s security strategy must urgently align with this reality.

In News:

According to the World Bank’s latest estimates, India has emerged as the fourth most income-equal country in the world, registering a Gini Index of 25.5 in 2022–23. This significant milestone places India just behind the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Belarus, surpassing many advanced and developing economies in income equality.

This achievement is paralleled by a sharp decline in extreme poverty—from 16.2% in 2011–12 to 2.3% in 2022–23—with over 171 million people lifted out of poverty in the past decade. It reflects the combined impact of sustained economic growth and the Indian state’s proactive welfare architecture.

Understanding the Gini Index and India’s Ranking

The Gini Index measures income inequality on a scale from 0 (perfect equality) to 100 (maximum inequality). With a score of 25.5, India falls into the "moderately low inequality" bracket (25–30), indicating a fair distribution of income. This is in sharp contrast to countries like China (35.7) and the United States (41.8). India's position is particularly noteworthy given its population size and diversity.

Poverty Reduction as a Catalyst for Equality

A key driver of this improved equality has been the drastic reduction in poverty, based on the World Bank’s threshold of $2.15/day (PPP). The decline to 2.3% extreme poverty signals successful poverty alleviation through targeted welfare, representing one of the most remarkable social transitions globally in the last decade.

Government Schemes and Inclusive Interventions

India’s equity gains are not accidental but the result of well-designed and executed social policies, supported by digital infrastructure and targeted delivery.

1. Financial Inclusion and DBT

• PM Jan Dhan Yojana enabled over 55 crore bank accounts, promoting financial access across rural and urban populations.
• Aadhaar-linked Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) reduced leakages, saving ?3.48 lakh crore by March 2023.

2. Health Security: Ayushman Bharat provides ?5 lakh insurance coverage, with over 41 crore beneficiaries enhancing access to secondary and tertiary healthcare.

3. Food Security: PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) ensured food availability to 80 crore people during COVID-19 and beyond, securing nutrition and resilience.

4. Livelihood Support: Stand-Up India and PM Vishwakarma Yojana support entrepreneurship, skilling and credit access for SCs, STs, women, and traditional artisans.

A Model of Equity-Oriented Growth

India has demonstrated that inclusive digital governance, if integrated with fiscal discipline and political will, can lead to tangible socioeconomic transformation. The convergence of growth, inclusion, and resilience sets a strong foundation for social equity.

A Social Welfare Department official aptly noted, “The Gini Index of 25.5 reflects real change—better access to jobs, food, healthcare, and dignity.”

Global Context and India’s Unique Approach

Unlike Scandinavian countries that rely on entrenched welfare states, India’s equality model stems from scalable digital infrastructure, direct cash transfers, and community-centric schemes. Among 167 countries surveyed, India’s outcome stands as a beacon for other developing nations striving to achieve balanced and sustainable development.

In News:

Between 2023 and 2025, the world has witnessed one of the most extensive drought-induced crises in recorded history. According to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), droughts intensified by climate change, El Niño, and poor land and water management are triggering cascading failures in food, water, energy, and socio-economic systems across continents.

A Slow-Moving Catastrophe

Labelled as “slow-moving catastrophes,” these droughts have disrupted the lives of millions across Africa, the Mediterranean, Latin America, and Asia, creating a silent but widespread humanitarian emergency. In Eastern and Southern Africa, over 90 million people face acute hunger. Zimbabwe’s maize production declined by 70% in 2024, while Zambia's Kariba Dam fell to 7% capacity, resulting in 21-hour daily blackouts and the collapse of health and industrial services.

The Mediterranean region faces shrinking agriculture and groundwater reserves. Spain's olive oil production dropped by 50%, leading to price spikes across Europe. In Türkiye, groundwater depletion triggered over 1,600 sinkholes, raising alarm over infrastructure safety and aquifer depletion.

In the Amazon Basin, rivers reached record low levels, killing over 200 endangered dolphins and leaving Indigenous communities without drinking water. The Panama Canal, vital for global trade, saw daily ship transits fall from 38 to 24, forcing rerouting and delaying supply chains. Similarly, Southeast Asia, including India and Thailand, suffered drought-related disruptions in rice and sugar production, affecting global food prices.

Social Disintegration and Vulnerabilities

The report underscores how drought disproportionately affects women, children, and marginalized communities. In Ethiopia, child marriages doubled in drought-hit regions as families exchanged dowries for survival. Zimbabwe reported mass school dropouts due to hunger and sanitation challenges. In Somalia, 4.4 million people now face food crises, with 1.7 million children suffering from acute malnutrition.

India in the Drought Lens

India, though not as severely impacted, faces growing intra-seasonal monsoon variability. River basins like Krishna and Godavari endure recurrent droughts due to groundwater over-extraction, deforestation, and inefficient irrigation. Drought-prone states like Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Karnataka are witnessing farmer distress, inflationary pressures, and internal migration.

Drivers and Consequences

The principal drivers include global warming, unsustainable land use, El Niño amplification, and poor governance. Drought is no longer a mere meteorological event but a multi-dimensional crisis affecting health, education, biodiversity, economy, and social stability. The OECD estimates droughts today cost twice as much as in 2000, with an expected rise of 35–110% by 2035.

Call to Action: Building Drought Resilience

The report calls for urgent global and national action:

• Early Warning Systems: For real-time drought and impact monitoring.
• Nature-Based Solutions: Restoring watersheds, adopting drought-resilient crops.
• Drought-Resilient Infrastructure: Off-grid power, alternative water sources.
• Gender-Sensitive Adaptation: Empowering women and girls during crises.
• Transboundary Cooperation: Joint management of river basins and trade routes.
• Financial Mobilization: Through platforms like IDRA for vulnerable nations.

Conclusion

Droughts are no longer sporadic natural phenomena; they are structural emergencies threatening the planet’s sustainability and human well-being. Without urgent investment in resilience, governance, and international cooperation, these creeping crises could become the defining climate emergency of the 21st century.

In News:

The Government of India has approved the Employment-Linked Incentive (ELI) Scheme with an outlay of ?99,446 crore, aimed at promoting formal employment generation, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Announced in the 2024–25 Union Budget, the scheme is part of a broader employment strategy that includes internships, skill development, and youth engagement initiatives.

Key Features of the Scheme

The ELI scheme, operational from August 1, 2025 to July 31, 2027, targets the creation of over 3.5 crore jobs. Of these, 1.92 crore newly employed individuals are expected to benefit directly. It is being implemented through the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO).

For eligible new recruits earning up to ?1 lakh/month:

• EPFO will transfer one month’s EPF wage (up to ?15,000) in two instalments—after 6 and 12 months of continuous service.
• Part of the incentive will be deposited in a fixed savings instrument, withdrawable later by the employee.

Incentives for employers include:

• ?3,000 per employee/month for two years for each new employee retained for at least six months.
• For the manufacturing sector, this benefit may extend into the third and fourth years.

Who Benefits?

The scheme primarily benefits:

• New entrants into the formal labour market.
• Labour-intensive sectors, especially manufacturing.
• Employers incentivized to sustain job creation.
• Small businesses, if implementation is expanded inclusively.

Industry Response

The industry has largely welcomed the initiative. According to FICCI’s former president, it is an “innovative” step that rewards both employees and employers. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) noted its potential to reshape India’s employment architecture.

However, Laghu Udyog Bharati, representing micro and small businesses, emphasized the need to include units with less than 20 employees, which dominate India’s enterprise landscape. Entrepreneurs’ associations also called for simplified and direct reimbursement models linked to verified payroll data, particularly under the MSME Ministry.

Trade Union Perspectives

While the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) cautiously endorsed the scheme, other central trade unions criticized it for allegedly favoring corporates. They compared it to the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme of 2020, where funds reportedly failed to create jobs and ended up benefiting large firms. Unions have demanded expansion of social security coverage and improved quality of employment, rather than subsidizing private sector wage bills.

Concerns and Challenges

Key concerns include:

• The role of EPFO, traditionally a custodian of worker savings, now being tasked with implementing a government-funded job creation scheme.
• Lack of clarity on fund disbursement responsibilities, raising doubts over accountability and oversight.
• Fear of misuse, given past precedents of incentive leakage.
• The structural issue of economic slowdown and stagnant worker incomes, which the scheme doesn’t directly address.

Conclusion

The ELI Scheme is a bold intervention in India’s formal employment landscape, combining wage subsidies with retention incentives. However, for it to be truly transformative, it must ensure inclusive coverage, maintain transparency, and be integrated into a broader strategy that enhances domestic demand and quality of employment. As India aims for equitable economic growth, effective implementation and stakeholder trust will be critical to its success.

In News:

The midday meal scheme, introduced a century ago by the Madras Municipal Corporation in 1925, has evolved into a cornerstone of India’s social welfare and education policy. Now known as PM-POSHAN (Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman), the scheme provides cooked meals to students up to Class 8 in government and aided schools. However, despite its proven benefits in enhancing enrolment, retention, and learning outcomes, the scheme continues to face serious implementation challenges across Indian states.

Originally launched nationwide in 1995 as the National Programme of Nutritional Support to Primary Education, the scheme was rebranded as PM-POSHAN for 2021–2026, with shared funding between the Centre and States. Yet, funding shortfalls, delayed disbursements, and logistical bottlenecks have undermined its effectiveness. In states like Kerala and Uttar Pradesh, headteachers report borrowing funds and delaying salaries to cover rising food and fuel costs. Teachers are forced to juggle between administrative duties and managing meals, often without adequate staff or infrastructure.

Tamil Nadu has emerged as a success story with the Chief Minister’s Breakfast Scheme launched in 2022, now reaching over 17.5 lakh students. The state also assesses students’ Body Mass Index (BMI), integrates Anganwadis for early nutrition, and prioritizes public investment in health and education, reflecting the Dravidian model. This has led to a measurable decline in malnutrition and school dropout rates, especially among girls.

In contrast, states like Bihar lag behind, with widespread complaints of mismanagement and food safety lapses. Caste-based discrimination further mars the scheme’s inclusive vision, with reports from both north and south India highlighting segregated seating and removal of cooks from marginalized communities due to social prejudice.

Despite PM-POSHAN’s intended goals, its design often reflects a one-size-fits-all approach, neglecting state-specific challenges. For example, nutrition gardens or IT-based monitoring systems remain tokenistic in under-resourced regions. The uniform allocation norms do not account for price inflation, regional dietary needs, or additional requirements like eggs or milk, leading to nutritional gaps.

Experts argue for a context-sensitive redesign. Dipa Sinha, a development economist, emphasizes that centrally sponsored schemes must account for states’ limited fiscal capacity, especially as most taxes are collected by the Union government. There is a need for increased central assistance and flexibility in fund allocation to match ground realities.

Moving forward, replicating best practices from Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Odisha, promoting community-level engagement, and allowing NGOs to address psychosocial gaps can help strengthen the programme. Customizing menus based on local needs, ensuring timely fund flow, recruiting adequate staff, and addressing social discrimination are essential to achieve the dual goals of universal education and child nutrition.

Conclusion

PM-POSHAN, though visionary, struggles in its current form. To fulfill its true potential as a tool for social justice and inclusive development, it must shift from being a centrally driven subsidy programme to a locally empowered, child-centric nutrition model embedded within the education system.

Introduction

As India advances toward becoming a super-aged society by the middle of this century, the focus must shift from merely increasing lifespan to enhancing healthspan—the period of life spent in good health. Recognising this, the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, launched a pioneering research initiative titled BHARAT (Biomarkers of Healthy Aging, Resilience, Adversity, and Transitions). It aims to map physiological, genetic, environmental, and socio-economic indicators that define healthy ageing in the Indian context.

The Need for India-Specific Healthy Ageing Parameters

Global research in ageing has largely been Western-centric, leading to the development of diagnostic thresholds, biomarkers, and treatment regimes based on non-Indian populations. This lack of contextual relevance often results in misdiagnosis and inappropriate treatments in countries like India. For instance, biomarkers such as cholesterol, vitamin D, or C-reactive protein (CRP) may exhibit different baseline levels among Indians due to genetic, nutritional, and environmental factors, but are often interpreted using Western standards.

Furthermore, while life expectancy has increased globally, the incidence of age-related disorders like Parkinson’s and dementia is projected to rise sharply in India—by 168% and 200%, respectively, by 2050. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify early biomarkers that can predict organ deterioration before the onset of overt disease.

BHARAT Study: Objectives and Methodology

BHARAT is part of IISc’s Longevity India Programme, and seeks to establish a Bharat Baseline—a reference for what is physiologically normal for the Indian population across age groups. It will build a comprehensive, multidimensional database that includes:

• Genomic biomarkers (genetic predisposition to diseases)
• Proteomic and metabolic profiles (pathway-level health indicators)
• Environmental and lifestyle factors (pollution exposure, dietary habits)

Crucially, it acknowledges that chronological age does not always match biological age, and seeks to develop more nuanced, organ-specific age markers that could enable preventive and personalised interventions.

Role of Artificial Intelligence

Given the complexity and volume of biological and lifestyle data, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning models are essential tools in this initiative. These technologies will aid in pattern recognition, risk prediction, and simulation of intervention outcomes, ultimately helping researchers select the most effective strategies before launching costly human trials.

Challenges and the Way Ahead

India’s vast genetic, geographic, and socio-economic diversity presents both opportunities and challenges. The BHARAT team faces hurdles such as:

• Difficulty in recruiting healthy adult volunteers
• Securing long-term public and private funding
• Scaling the study to ensure pan-India representation

However, the potential impact is profound. By building an India-specific ageing dataset, BHARAT can influence the development of better diagnostics, public health policies, and preventive healthcare systems for an ageing population.

Conclusion

The BHARAT study marks a critical shift in India’s biomedical research priorities, focusing not only on longevity but on quality of life during ageing. As India prepares to navigate the challenges of demographic transition, initiatives like BHARAT will be instrumental in creating a resilient, inclusive, and health-aware society, rooted in evidence that reflects its own people.

In News:

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) recently released the “Value of Output from Agriculture and Allied Sectors” report (June 2025), revealing significant structural changes in India’s agricultural production and consumption over the past decade. The data reflects a shift away from staple cereals toward high-value crops such as fruits, vegetables, and spices—mirroring broader socio-economic transformations.

Key Findings: Rise of High-Value Crops

The Gross Value of Output (GVO)—the total value of agricultural production before deducting input costs—highlights changing food habits and production priorities. Between 2011–12 and 2023–24, the GVO of several non-traditional crops rose sharply. For example:

• Strawberries saw a 40-fold rise in GVO at constant prices (from ?1.32 crore to ?55.4 crore), and nearly 80-fold at current prices.
• Pomegranate GVO quadrupled to ?9,231 crore.
• Parmal (parwal) and pumpkin increased by 17 and 10 times, respectively.
• Mushroom and dry ginger witnessed 3.5x and 285% growth, the latter aided by improved agro-processing infrastructure.

This transformation indicates increasing demand for horticultural and niche crops with higher returns, aligning with government focus on nutritional security and export diversification.

Declining Importance of Cereals

Contrasting the rise of high-value crops is the decline in cereal dominance. The share of cereals in agricultural GVO fell from 17.6% (2011–12) to 14.5% (2023–24). Simultaneously, consumption data shows cereals’ share in urban MPCE dropped from 6.61% to 3.74%, and in rural MPCE from 10.69% to 4.97% over the same period. This trend aligns with Engel’s Law, where rising incomes lead to a shift in spending from staples to diversified food categories.

Rising Animal Product Consumption

The share of meat in agricultural GVO increased from 5% to 7.5%, reflecting higher protein intake as incomes grew. However, its GVO growth (131%) was still lower than that of some horticultural produce like strawberry (4,000%).

Changing Consumption Patterns

Data from the 2023–24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) supports this structural shift. The share of fresh fruits in rural MPCE rose slightly from 2.25% to 2.66%, while in urban areas it slightly declined. Yet, a 2024 study co-authored by Shamika Ravi indicates broader accessibility, with the proportion of rural households consuming fresh fruits increasing from 63.8% to 90.3%, especially among the bottom 20% income group.

Policy and Economic Implications

This transition from staple grains to high-value crops is driven by technological advancements, shifting consumer preferences, nutritional awareness, export potential, and government support for crop diversification. It reflects a move toward a more resilient, market-oriented agricultural system.

However, challenges remain in ensuring equitable access to high-value markets, stabilizing prices, and addressing risks associated with monoculture trends.

Conclusion

The MoSPI data reveals a critical inflection point in Indian agriculture. While traditional staples are declining in prominence, the rise of high-value horticulture and livestock signals both economic opportunity and the need for targeted policy to support inclusive, nutrition-sensitive agricultural growth.

Context:

The Western Ghats, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and one of the world’s eight hottest biodiversity hotspots, stretch across six Indian states—Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. Rich in endemic flora and fauna, they play a critical role in influencing the Indian monsoon, regulating climate, and sustaining major river systems like the Godavari, Krishna, and Kaveri. However, this ecologically sensitive region faces growing environmental and governance challenges.

Renowned ecologist Madhav Gadgil has strongly advocated for a community-led conservation model, citing the failures of top-down forest bureaucracy and the neglect of the Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006. He argues that without empowering local communities, conservation efforts will remain ineffective.

Geological and Ecological Background

The Western Ghats are ancient, formed through Precambrian cratonic uplift and Deccan Traps volcanism over 600 million years ago. The western edge of the Deccan Plateau subsided post-Gondwana breakup, forming the escarpments we see today. Over time, monsoon-fed rivers carved deep valleys, resulting in the current terrain of lateritic plateaus and ridges.

With over 7,400 species—many of them endemic—the region is home to unique ecosystems. Yet, despite its ecological importance, conservation has suffered due to flawed governance, industrial exploitation, and neglect of community rights.

Challenges in Western Ghats Conservation

• Flawed Forest Governance:Government agencies often rely on outdated and inflated forest data. For instance, Gadgil's 1975 study in Uttara Kannada revealed bamboo stocks were overestimated tenfold to justify resource extraction.
• Industrial Pollution:Unregulated industries operate in fragile zones. The Grasim Rayon Factory in Kerala discharged mercury into the Chaliyar River, decimating fisheries and affecting tribal livelihoods.
• Non-implementation of FRA (2006):Despite legal entitlements, Community Forest Rights (CFR) remain unimplemented in most districts, particularly in Kerala and Karnataka.
• Monoculture Plantations:Replacement of native forests with eucalyptus and acacia has led to biodiversity loss, declining soil health, and reduced pollinator populations, as seen in Wayanad.
• Forest Fires from Unsustainable Practices:Fire-based tendu leaf collection methods degrade forest cover. For instance, Gadchiroli and Karnataka have witnessed increased fire incidents.
• Inaccessible Ecological Data:Forest data remains aggregated and delayed. Studies using NRSC and Global Forest Watch have exposed discrepancies in official forest cover claims.

Committee Recommendations

• WGEEP (2011), led by Gadgil, advocated for Ecologically Sensitive Area (ESA) zoning, Gram Sabha-led conservation, and strict implementation of CFR.
• The Kasturirangan Committee (2013) diluted these recommendations by reducing ESA coverage and favouring development-centric governance.

Way Forward

• Implement CFR Provisions: E.g., Pachgaon in Maharashtra demonstrates how CFR-based governance can lead to sustainable bamboo harvesting and fire prevention.
• Promote Democratic Decentralisation: Empowering Gram Sabhas, as in Kerala’s VSS model, ensures accountability and local participation.
• Modernise Ecological Monitoring: Tools like Google Earth and Bhuvan offer real-time forest tracking, countering manipulated datasets.
• Ban Unsustainable Industries in ESA: SC orders on mining bans in wildlife corridors must be enforced, especially in states like Goa and Kerala.
• Support Biodiversity-Friendly Livelihoods: NTFP-based enterprises, eco-tourism, and agroforestry, like Wayanad tribal co-operatives selling organic turmeric and wild honey, can align conservation with income.

Conclusion

The Western Ghats are central to India’s ecological, hydrological, and cultural stability. Conservation rooted in community empowerment, transparent governance, and ecological integrity is essential. Only a democratic, decentralized, and data-driven model, as envisioned by Gadgil, can secure the future of this ecological treasure.

In News:

The National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, released its annual publication, Statistical Report on Value of Output from Agriculture and Allied Sectors (2011–12 to 2023–24). This comprehensive report provides granular data on output values across crop, livestock, forestry, and fisheries sectors at both current and constant (2011–12) prices, offering crucial insights into trends, sectoral contributions, and regional dynamics in Indian agriculture.

Growth Trajectory and Sectoral Contributions

The Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture and allied sectors at current prices rose by 225%, from ?1,502 thousand crore in 2011–12 to ?4,878 thousand crore in 2023–24. At constant prices, the Gross Value of Output (GVO) increased by 54.6%, from ?1,908 thousand crore to ?2,949 thousand crore during the same period.

The crop sector remained the backbone of the agricultural economy, contributing ?1,595 thousand crore or 54.1% of the total GVO in 2023–24. Within this, cereals and fruits & vegetables together formed 52.5% of the crop output. Notably, paddy and wheat alone accounted for 85% of cereal GVO. Five states—Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Telangana, and Haryana—contributed 53% of the total cereal output, with Uttar Pradesh maintaining its top position despite a decline in share from 18.6% to 17.2%.

Shifting Dynamics in Horticulture

The horticulture sector has witnessed dynamic changes. In fruits, banana (?47,000 crore) surpassed mango (?46,100 crore) in 2023–24, breaking mango’s longstanding dominance. In the vegetable group, potato retained its lead, with GVO rising from ?21,300 crore to ?37,200 crore between 2011–12 and 2023–24.

Floriculture emerged as a growing commercial interest, with its GVO nearly doubling from ?17,400 crore to ?28,100 crore. The shifts in leading states in the production of fruits, vegetables, and floriculture underscore regional diversification in agricultural growth.

Rise of Livestock and Allied Sectors

The livestock sector experienced substantial growth, with its GVO nearly doubling from ?488 thousand crore to ?919 thousand crore. While milk remained the dominant product, its share slightly decreased from 67.2% to 65.9%, whereas meat products increased their share from 19.7% to 24.1%.

In the condiments and spices category, Madhya Pradesh emerged as the top contributor with a 19.2% share, followed by Karnataka (16.6%) and Gujarat (15.5%).

The forestry and logging sector saw a moderate increase in GVO from ?149 thousand crore to ?227 thousand crore. Significantly, the share of industrial wood surged from 49.9% to 70.2%, indicating growing commercialization.

Emerging Importance of Fisheries

The fishing and aquaculture sector is becoming increasingly vital, with its contribution to total agricultural GVO rising from 4.2% to 7.0% over the period. While inland fish share declined from 57.7% to 50.2%, marine fish increased from 42.3% to 49.8%. States like West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh witnessed substantial structural shifts in fisheries production patterns.

Context:

In a significant development, China recently hosted the first China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral dialogue in Kunming, following a similar China-Pakistan-Afghanistan meeting. These efforts signal Beijing’s strategic push to consolidate its influence in South Asia, creating new geopolitical challenges for India.

Understanding the Emerging Nexus

The trilateral arrangements—China-Pakistan-Bangladesh and China-Pakistan-Afghanistan—are part of China’s broader strategic framework to establish deeper regional roots. China drives the agenda, with Pakistan gaining strategic relevance, while Bangladesh and Afghanistan are drawn in for economic, political, and connectivity incentives.

Motivations Behind the Trilateralism

• China aims to dilute India’s regional influence, expand the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and leverage Pakistan to complicate India's neighbourhood strategy.
• Pakistan seeks Chinese economic and strategic backing to offset India, especially after facing diplomatic isolation globally.
• Bangladesh and Afghanistan are attracted by Chinese infrastructure investment, diplomatic weight, and development assurances in a multipolar Asia.

Historical Context

• 1962 Indo-China War: Set the foundation for Sino-Pakistan convergence as a counterweight to India.
• 1965 Siliguri Strategy: Pakistan attempted to encircle India with support from China, Nepal, and East Pakistan, a strategy echoing today.
• China’s Shielding at UNSC: Regular blocking of India’s attempts to designate Pakistan-based terrorists, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives, at the United Nations.
• Operation Sindoor, 2025: Pakistan deployed Chinese drones and radars; Beijing criticized India’s counterstrike, reaffirming its alliance.

Implications for India

• Security Threats: China-Pakistan cooperation now gains a regional sheen, legitimizing their cross-border strategies, e.g., the Pahalgam attack (2025).
• Diplomatic Setbacks: China’s increasing footprint in Dhaka and Kabul limits India’s traditional influence.
• Strategic Encroachment: Enhanced trilateralism boosts BRI's presence in South Asia, undercutting India-led alternatives like BBIN or the Chabahar corridor.

Impact on South Asian Stability

• Regional Polarization: Smaller nations are forced to balance between India and China, causing strategic fragmentation.
• Risk of Proxy Conflicts: Chinese cover may embolden Pakistan’s use of cross-border terrorism.
• Dilution of Regional Forums: SAARC and other platforms may become ineffective under Chinese influence.

Way Forward for India

• Assert Strategic Redlines: India must clearly articulate consequences for neighbours compromising its sovereignty.
• Deepen Regional Cooperation: Utilize BIMSTEC, IORA, and the Indo-Pacific frameworks to counterbalance Chinese presence.
• Economic Diplomacy: Increase targeted investments, credit lines, and market access to offer credible alternatives to BRI.
• Defence Engagement: Expand military and strategic ties with Bangladesh, Maldives, and Afghanistan.
• Narrative Building: Promote India as a cooperative, non-hegemonic regional partner to counter Chinese narratives.

Conclusion
The China-led trilateral dialogues mark a recalibration in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape aimed at constraining India’s rise. India’s response must be multifaceted—merging strategic assertiveness with regional diplomacy and economic outreach. A confident and inclusive India can safeguard its interests and lead a stable, multipolar South Asian order.

Context:

India is witnessing a transformative moment in its higher education sector with globally reputed foreign universities preparing to set up campuses within the country. Enabled by the UGC (Setting up and Operation of Campuses of Foreign Higher Educational Institutions in India) Regulations, 2023, and inspired by the vision of the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, this move could reshape the academic landscape. Locations such as GIFT City (Gujarat) and Navi Mumbai have been identified as early sites for these institutions. As of mid-2025, seven universities from the UK, five from Australia, and one each from the US, Canada, and Italy have initiated or secured regulatory approvals.

Drivers of Foreign University Interest in India

• Demographic and Economic Potential:India hosts over 40 million students in higher education, with a Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) below 30% (AISHE 2021–22), indicating untapped potential. A growing urban middle class, rising aspirations, and the need for globally competitive education have made India an attractive destination.
• Global Decline in Student Numbers:Countries in the Global North face declining domestic enrolments due to falling birth rates. In 2023, international students accounted for 22% in the UK, 24% in Australia, and 30% in Canada. Top U.S. universities reported up to 27% international enrolments, underscoring their reliance on overseas students for revenue.
• Policy Tightening in Host Nations:Visa caps and policy restrictions in Australia, the UK, and Canada have constrained student inflows. Consequently, foreign institutions are exploring in-country campuses in emerging markets like India to maintain their global reach and financial sustainability.

Opportunities and Advantages

• Academic Diversification: Indian students will gain access to internationally benchmarked curricula, faculty, and research ecosystems without the need to go abroad.
• Cost-Effective Alternative: For students unable to afford international education, foreign campuses in India provide a more affordable and accessible option.
• Quality Enhancement: The presence of foreign institutions could push Indian universities to raise academic standards through competition and collaboration.
• Regional Education Hub: India may also attract students from South Asia and Africa, enhancing its regional soft power.

Challenges Ahead

• Affordability: Tuition fees at foreign university campuses may still be beyond the reach of average Indian households, potentially limiting their impact to elite segments unless subsidized.
• Mixed Global Precedents: Similar ventures in China and Southeast Asia have seen varied success, with some facing regulatory and financial hurdles.
• Regulatory and Cultural Complexities: India’s bureaucratic processes, socio-cultural diversity, and policy uncertainties could pose operational challenges.
• Modest Initial Scale: In the short term, student intake and institutional presence are expected to be limited, with success depending on market response and adaptability.

Regulatory Framework and Future Outlook

The UGC’s FHEI Regulations, 2023, provide foreign institutions with autonomy in curriculum design, faculty recruitment, admissions, and repatriation of surplus funds. Only top 500 globally ranked universities, or those with exceptional expertise in niche domains, are eligible. These reforms reflect India’s commitment to making higher education globally competitive.

If effectively implemented, foreign campuses can act as catalysts for academic reform, foster global partnerships, and elevate India’s position as an education hub. However, ensuring affordability, equitable access, and academic integrity will be key to long-term success.

Context:

The recent approval by Iran’s Parliament to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, pending a final decision by its Supreme National Security Council, has intensified global concerns about energy security and geopolitical stability. This comes in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian military sites, marking a serious escalation in the Gulf region.

Strategic Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

• The Strait of Hormuz is a 33 km-wide maritime chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and, subsequently, the Arabian Sea. It handles over 25% of global seaborne oil trade, 20% of global oil consumption, and 20% of LNG trade, primarily from Qatar.
• The geographical location of the strait—falling within Iranian and Omani territorial waters—makes it one of the most sensitive energy corridors globally.
• The strait’s vulnerability is compounded by its narrow 3 km-wide navigational channels, making it susceptible to blockades, naval mines, missile strikes, or cyberattacks.
• Historically, Iran has issued such threats without actual closure, even during periods of conflict, largely due to its own dependency on the strait for oil exports, especially to China.

Implications of a Blockade

A complete or even partial blockade could have catastrophic global impacts:

• Disruption of Global Energy Supply: With no alternative sea route, any disruption would curtaildaily movement of 20 million barrels of oil, causingsharp price spikes.
• Limited Overland Alternatives: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (5 million bpd) and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline (1.8 million bpd) cannot compensate for the loss of Hormuz transit.
• Higher Shipping and Insurance Costs: Perceived risk increases freight rates, insurance premiums, and logistical expenses globally.

Impact on India

India, the third-largest crude oil consumer, imports over 85% of its oil and 50% of its natural gas. In May 2025 alone, 47% of India’s crude imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption would result in:

• Price Volatility: Even if supplies are not entirely blocked, oil and gas prices will spike, stressing the economy.
• Macroeconomic Stress: A surge in energy prices could widen the trade deficit, weaken the rupee, reduce forex reserves, and raise inflation.
• Competitive Pressure: If Iran’s exports to China are blocked, Beijing may seek oil from other producers, increasing global demand and costs, impacting India’s energy budget.

India’s Resilience and Strategic Measures

Despite the vulnerabilities, India has certain buffers:

• Diversification of Energy Sources: Imports from Russia, the U.S., Africa, and Latin America are not dependent on Hormuz. Russian oil arrives via the Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope, while Qatar’s LNG also uses alternate maritime routes.
• Strategic Reserves: India maintains 9–10 days’ worth of strategic oil reserves for emergencies.
• Government Policy Levers: In case of a prolonged crisis, the government may offer price subsidies for diesel and LPG to contain inflation.

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital artery of global energy supply and a flashpoint of geopolitical tensions. While India has taken commendable steps toward energy diversification and crisis preparedness, continued diplomatic engagement in West Asia, investments in energy alternatives, and strengthening strategic reserves will be key to mitigating the fallout from any potential blockade.

In News:

In a stark contradiction to global climate goals, the world’s 65 largest banks increased their fossil fuel financing by $162 billion in 2024, reaching a total of $869 billion, up from $707 billion in 2023, according to the Fossil Fuel Finance Report 2025. This trend threatens to derail global commitments under the Paris Agreement and undermines the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) roadmap to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

India’s Position:

Among global lenders, the State Bank of India (SBI) was the only Indian bank featured in the top 65, rising from the 49th to 47th position. SBI’s fossil fuel financing increased modestly by $65 million, taking its 2024 total to $2.62 billion. Cumulatively, between 2021 and 2024, SBI extended $10.6 billion to fossil fuel projects. In contrast, JPMorgan Chase topped the global list with $53.5 billion in 2024 alone.

Despite this, SBI has also signalled intent to transition. It has pledged to become net zero by 2055, and aims to ensure that 7.5% of its domestic advances are green by 2030. As of March 2024, SBI had sanctioned ?20,558 crore in sustainable finance. However, this dual-track financing model raises questions about the coherence of India's green finance agenda.

Global Setbacks and Policy Rollbacks

2024 witnessed a rollback in climate-related financial commitments, particularly in the United States. The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, scheduled to take effect in 2026, was accompanied by policy shifts like exiting the Net Zero Banking Alliance and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Major banks such as Wells Fargo abandoned their net-zero commitments, signaling a broader retreat from climate-aligned finance.

This global trend is no longer confined to North America. European banks, traditionally viewed as progressive, also weakened fossil fuel exclusion policies. The result: a global rise in fossil fuel merger and acquisition financing, which reached $82.9 billion in 2024, up by $19.2 billion from 2023. Although M&As do not directly add infrastructure, they consolidate fossil fuel power at a time when the world urgently needs to pivot to renewables.

Indian Banks and the Coal Dilemma

Indian financial institutions, barring a few exceptions like Federal Bank and RBL Bank, lack explicit coal exclusion policies. According to Climate Risk Horizons, this constitutes a major blind spot. The economics of energy is shifting — renewables and storage are now often cheaper than coal, making continued fossil fuel investments financially and environmentally risky.

Conclusion

The rise in fossil fuel financing reflects a disconnect between climate rhetoric and financial action, threatening the global transition to clean energy. For India, this highlights the need for a coherent climate finance strategy, integrating environmental, financial, and developmental priorities. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement and a G20 economy, India must not only align public finance with green goals but also push for global financial reforms that discourage fossil fuel dependencies and reward sustainable investments.

Context:

There has been a sharp surge in the number of women Maoist cadres killed in anti-Naxal operations in Chhattisgarh since 2024. This rise has coincided with the intensification of counter-insurgency efforts under the Ministry of Home Affairs’ (MHA’s) renewed push to eliminate Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) by March 2026.

Behind these numbers lies a disturbing narrative of coercion, indoctrination, gender-based exploitation, and the systemic use of women and children as tools in extremist strategies.

Trends in Women Maoist Casualties (2024–2025)

• 2024: Out of 217 Maoists killed, 74 were women (~34%)
• 2025 (till June 20): Out of 195 killed, 82 were women (~42%)
• Comparison with previous years:
  • 2019: 65 total killed | 17 women
  • 2020: 40 total | 7 women
  • 2021: 51 total | 13 women
  • 2022: 30 total | 9 women
  • 2023: 20 total | 5 women

This data indicates a doubling of women fatalities as a proportion of total casualties in Maoist operations since the launch of targeted operations.

Recruitment Through Coercion: Bal Dastas and Gendered Exploitation

According to the MHA, Maoists have been increasingly recruiting young Adivasi girls and forming “Bal Dastas” (child squads) in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Key observations include:

• Parental coercion: Many impoverished tribal families are forced to give up their girl children under threats and pressure.
• Ideological indoctrination: Children are brainwashed to adopt Maoist ideology from an early age.
• Gendered exploitation: Although the Maoists outwardly reject patriarchy, the representation of women in leadership roles such as the Polit Bureau and Central Committee remains negligible.
• Use of women as foot soldiers and human shields, exposing them disproportionately to fatal encounters with security forces.

Underlying Issues: Security, Society, and Maoist Strategy

• Deliberate Alienation Strategy:
  • Maoists systematically attack schools and educational infrastructure.
  • As per MHA, education fosters critical thinking and alternate livelihoods, which are seen as a threat to Maoist influence.
• Civilian and Infrastructure Loss:
  • Since 2019:
    • 725 civilians killed in LWE violence.
    • 263 incidents of attacks on economic infrastructure recorded.
• Socio-Economic Backdrop:
  • Lack of education, healthcare, livelihood options, and state presence in remote tribal areas fuel Maoist recruitment.
  • Women and children from these regions become the most vulnerable and easily exploited demographic.

Security Forces' Perspective and Response

• Initial recruitment of women was largely based on coercion and misinformation.
• Once inside the Maoist ranks, women face physical, mental, and emotional exploitation.
• Maoists use women primarily as human shields and expendable foot soldiers.

However, the security forces are increasingly pursuing a sensitive, gender-aware approach, prioritizing:

• Voluntary surrender schemes
• Gender-sensitive rehabilitation policies offering:
  • Education
  • Vocational training
  • Healthcare access
  • Social reintegration pathways

Way Forward: A Multi-Pronged Strategy

• Strengthen Surrender and Rehabilitation Frameworks:
  • Expand socio-economic reintegration schemes tailored for women ex-cadres.
  • Ensure psycho-social counselling, particularly for minors and survivors of exploitation.
• Enhance State Presence and Welfare Delivery:
  • Accelerate development of infrastructure, education, and healthcare in LWE-affected districts.
  • Promote community policing and tribal leadership in governance processes.
• Child Protection Measures:
  • Strengthen child protection systems, including monitoring of Bal Dastas.
  • Empower and engage Anganwadi workers, school teachers, and local NGOs in vulnerable zones.
• Gender-Sensitive Counter-Insurgency Doctrine:Train forces in humane engagement, protection of rights, and de-escalation tactics when dealing with women and child cadres.

In News:

Recently, India marked a major milestone in quantum technology with the successful demonstration of quantum secure communication over free space by IIT Delhi, in collaboration with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). This achievement represents a significant step forward in India’s pursuit of quantum cybersecurity, quantum networks, and the future quantum internet, with vital applications in both defence and civilian domains.

What is Quantum Communication?

Quantum communication leverages principles of quantum mechanics, particularly quantum entanglement, to enable secure data transmission. In entanglement, the quantum state of two or more particles (usually photons) becomes correlated such that the measurement of one instantly determines the state of the other—regardless of the distance between them.

Security Advantage: Any attempt to intercept or measure the entangled photons disturbs their state, instantly revealing the breach. This makes quantum communication unbreakable by classical computational means.

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD): The Core Mechanism

Quantum communication is often employed for Quantum Key Distribution (QKD)—a method to securely generate and share encryption keys between two parties. Once both parties obtain identical secret keys via QKD, traditional algorithms (like AES) can be used to encrypt and decrypt actual messages.

There are two main types of QKD:

• Prepare-and-Measure QKD: Single photons are prepared in specific states and then measured.
• Entanglement-Based QKD: Pairs of entangled photons are distributed between users; any interception disturbs the entanglement, flagging the intrusion.

IIT-Delhi’s 2025 Breakthrough: Key Highlights

• Achievement: Demonstrated entanglement-assisted free-space QKD over a distance of more than 1 km at IIT Delhi campus.
• Secure Key Rate: ~240 bits per second.
• Quantum Bit Error Rate (QBER): <7%, which is acceptable under current protocols.
• Setting: Conducted under the DRDO-funded project “Design and development of photonic technologies for free space QKD”, in the presence of senior dignitaries from DRDO and IIT Delhi.

Free-space QKD offers a critical advantage—eliminating the need for laying optical fibres, making it viable in mountainous terrain and congested urban zones.

Previous Achievements by the IIT-Delhi & DRDO Team

• 2022: India’s first intercity quantum communication link established between Vindhyachal and Prayagraj using commercial dark optical fibre.
• 2023: Achieved QKD over 380 km using optical fibre with a QBER of 1.48%.
• 2024: Demonstrated entanglement-based QKD over 100 km using telecom-grade optical fibre.

Significance:

Strategic Applications:

• Defence Communication: Enables tamper-proof messaging and data sharing during operations.
• Cybersecurity: Shields critical infrastructure from quantum and AI-based cyber threats.
• Surveillance Immunity: Makes quantum networks resilient to conventional hacking or surveillance.

Civilian Applications:

• Banking and Finance: Secure real-time financial data transmission.
• Telecommunications: Enhances privacy in communication systems.
• Quantum Internet: Enables ultra-secure networking, distributed quantum computing, and time-synchronised communication.

Quantum Networks and the Road Ahead

India’s long-term goal is to establish a multi-node quantum network capable of secure long-range communication. This includes establishing:

• Satellite-to-ground QKD links, enabling nation-wide secure key distribution.
• Urban quantum networks, ensuring secure communication for government and military hubs.

India is drawing inspiration from China’s 4,600 km quantum network and U.S. plans for a quantum internet by the 2030s.

To this end, the National Quantum Mission (NQM) was approved in 2023, with an outlay of ?6,000 crore (2023–2031). It aims to:

• Develop 20–50 qubit quantum computers.
• Build quantum communication and sensing technologies.
• Establish four Thematic Hubs on quantum applications in computing, metrology, communication, and materials.

Institutional Mechanism: DIA-CoEs

The work was conducted under the DRDO-Industry-Academia Centre of Excellence (DIA-CoE) model. DIA-CoEs are collaborative platforms set up in premier academic institutions such as IITs and IISc, focused on developing cutting-edge defence technologies.

There are 15 DIA-CoEs currently operational across India.

Conclusion: India’s Quantum Communication Trajectory

India’s demonstration of free-space quantum secure communication marks a critical leap in strategic technology self-reliance. With continued support through the National Quantum Mission and institutional synergy between academia, industry, and the military, India is well-positioned to emerge as a global leader in quantum-enabled security infrastructure.

In News:

India’s food and fertiliser subsidy regime has played a critical role in ensuring food security and supporting farm productivity. However, with extreme poverty declining from 27.1% in 2011 to a historic low of 5.3% in 2022, and the combined food and fertiliser subsidy bill exceeding ?3.5 lakh crore in FY26, there is a growing policy imperative to reimagine these subsidies for greater efficiency, fiscal prudence, and long-term sustainability.

The Current Landscape

Food and fertiliser subsidies in India are a mix of direct and indirect support mechanisms. Direct subsidies include schemes like PM-KISAN, while indirect subsidies include low-cost foodgrains under the National Food Security Act (NFSA) and price-controlled fertilisers. As per government data:

• Food subsidy is budgeted at ?2.03 lakh crore, reaching over 800 million beneficiaries through the Public Distribution System (PDS).
• Fertiliser subsidy is pegged at ?1.56 lakh crore, driven by rising global prices and a skewed demand for urea.

Challenges in the Current Subsidy System

• Mismatch Between Poverty and Coverage: Despite poverty falling to 5.3%, 84% of households still possess ration cards, many of whom are no longer poor. This reflects poor targeting and leads to welfare leakages.
• Nutritional Deficiency in PDS: The PDS remains cereal-centric, primarily distributing rice and wheat, while nutrition insecurity persists due to insufficient supply of pulses, edible oils, and micronutrients.
• Fertiliser Misuse: The overuse of nitrogen-based fertilisers (particularly urea) has caused an ecological imbalance, deteriorating soil health and reducing long-term farm productivity.
• Fiscal Constraints: Massive subsidy expenditures are crowding out investments in rural infrastructure such as irrigation, cold storage, and extension services—critical for doubling farmer incomes.
• Leakages and Ghost Beneficiaries: Despite digitisation and Aadhaar seeding, leakages continue in both PDS and fertiliser channels, with instances like card cancellations in Jharkhand pointing to persistent inefficiencies.

Government Initiatives So Far

• PMGKAY during COVID-19 extended free foodgrains to NFSA beneficiaries, and has now been merged with NFSA provisions.
• Digitisation of ration cards and Aadhaar-enabled ePoS machines are being used to plug PDS leakages.
• Neem-coated urea and the Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) policy aim to reduce misuse and promote balanced fertilisation.
• Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) for fertilisers is being piloted to streamline subsidy flows and reduce diversion.

Reform Measures Needed

• Targeting and Gradation: Use PM-KISAN, SECC, and Aadhaar-linked databases to better identify the poorest 15% households and gradually taper subsidies for others.
• Digital Food Coupons: Introduce ?700/month digital wallets or coupons for nutrient-rich food purchases (pulses, eggs, milk), improving dietary diversity and nutrition security.
• Fertiliser Coupons & Price Rationalisation: Introduce fertiliser coupons, deregulate prices, and incentivise eco-friendly inputs like bio-fertilisers and organic compost.
• Improve Monitoring: Strengthen data triangulation using land records, crop surveys, and income data to reduce inclusion/exclusion errors.
• Farmer Sensitisation: Communicate the rationale for reforms clearly to farmers to avoid mistrust or resistance, as witnessed during earlier protests.

Conclusion

India’s welfare architecture must evolve with its changing socio-economic landscape. With poverty rates at historic lows, continued universal subsidies are both fiscally unsustainable and inefficient. Smartly targeted reforms in food and fertiliser subsidies are vital for improving nutritional outcomes, restoring soil health, and ensuring optimal allocation of public resources. A calibrated transition to a more efficient, inclusive, and sustainable system will enhance welfare delivery without compromising economic growth.

In News:

The geopolitical landscape of West Asia is undergoing a profound transformation driven by escalating conflicts, realignments of power, and the increasing weaponisation of energy. The Israel-Iran conflict, rising threats to critical maritime routes, and the shifting allegiances of Gulf states are redefining the region’s strategic and energy equations, with direct implications for global stability and India’s national interests.

West Asia’s Centrality to Global Energy Security

• The Gulf region holds over 50% of global proven oil reserves, producing around 33% of the world’s oil and 17% of global natural gas.
• Despite a global shift to renewables, the world still consumes ~100 million barrels of oil daily, with ~50% used for transport and ~20% for petrochemicals.
• Natural gas accounts for 23% of global energy consumption, supplying a quarter of global electricity.

Geopolitical Flashpoints: Conflict and Energy Disruption

• Israel’s airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran’s missile retaliation have heightened the risk of regional war.
• Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global oil trade passes. Even the threat has increased insurance and freight rates.
  • Charter costs for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) from the Gulf to China have risen from ~$20,000 to ~$48,000 per day.
• Iran’s oil exports (~2 million barrels/day) form ~2% of global oil supply, difficult to replace due to limited spare capacity among other producers.
• Threat of attacks on energy infrastructure by Iran-backed militias adds to regional instability.

Strategic Realignments in West Asia

• Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) are moving toward multi-polar engagements, strengthening ties with China and Russia, and reducing dependence on the US.
• Historical precedent: The 1973 Arab oil embargo demonstrated the region's ability to influence global politics through oil.
• Arab monarchies’ reluctance to support Western-backed regime change in Iran stems from fears of regional destabilisation and domestic backlash.
• Public sentiment in Gulf nations remains strongly pro-Palestinian and anti-Western, adding internal pressures on ruling elites.

Weaponisation of Energy as a Strategic Tool

• The use of oil embargoes or supply disruptions is re-emerging as a geopolitical instrument.
• Iran could resort to asymmetric warfare or encourage proxy attacks on rival oil facilities, particularly in Iraq (which produces over 4 million barrels/day) and the Gulf.

Implications for India

Opportunities:

• Scope to diversify energy suppliers and enhance strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
• India’s position in BRICS and SCO offers diplomatic space to act as a moderating influence.

Risks:

• 40–50% of India’s energy imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz—any disruption threatens energy security.
• Surging oil prices can fuel imported inflation, impacting transport, agriculture, and industrial costs.
• Indian projects like Chabahar Port, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) face operational uncertainties.
• Strain on India’s balanced ties with Israel and Iran, with diplomatic fallout possible.
• Gulf remittances (a vital source of foreign exchange) may decline if regional conflict escalates.

Conclusion

West Asia’s reconfiguration is a reminder of the enduring nexus between energy and geopolitics. For India, navigating this complex terrain requires strategic autonomy, energy diversification, and robust regional diplomacy. Balancing relations amid shifting alliances, while securing national interests in energy and trade, must remain central to India’s foreign policy calculus.

In News:

As India approaches its centenary of independence in 2047, the focus on reshaping its educational landscape has gained significant momentum. A noteworthy initiative in this direction is the Panch Parivartan Strategy launched by Vidya Bharati Akhil Bharatiya Shiksha Sansthan under its Vision 2047 roadmap. This five-pronged reform framework aims to redefine Indian education by integrating cultural values, social inclusivity, gender equity, environmental consciousness, and self-reliance.

What is the Panch Parivartan Strategy?

The strategy envisions a transformative shift in the Indian education system through five core components, collectively aimed at holistic nation-building. It seeks to develop not only knowledge and skills but also instill values rooted in India’s civilizational ethos.

1. Samajik Samrasata (Social Harmony)

This component focuses on inclusive education, bridging divides across caste, class, region, and religion. By ensuring that educational institutions become spaces of social integration, it promotes equality and mutual respect—core principles enshrined in the Constitution of India. This aligns with the larger vision of social justice and unity in diversity.

2. Kutumb Prabodhan (Family Value Integration)

Recognizing the family as the primary institution of socialization, this strategy integrates cultural practices such as Matri-Pitri Pujan (reverence for parents) and traditional joint family values into the educational process. The goal is to strengthen inter-generational bonds and instill respect for elders, thereby reinforcing India’s intangible cultural heritage.

3. Paryavaran Sanrakshan (Environmental Protection)

Environmental stewardship is another cornerstone of the strategy. Vidya Bharati has facilitated the planting of over 5.2 lakh saplings, developed 3,400 green campuses, and implemented water conservation practices in more than 1,800 schools. This aligns closely with the principles of sustainable development and promotes ecological consciousness among students, in line with India’s commitments under SDG-13 (Climate Action).

4. Swa (Self-Identity and Self-Reliance)

With a strong emphasis on vocational education, skilling, and rootedness, this pillar nurtures youth empowerment by offering training through ITIs, local crafts, and digital technologies even in remote areas like Kargil and Kiphire. It seeks to instill a sense of Bharatiyata (Indianness) while preparing students to be globally competent. This component supports the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, aimed at creating a self-reliant India.

5. Nari Samman (Dignity of Women)

Focusing on girls’ education, leadership training, and self-defence programs, this strategy has already benefited over 14.4 lakh girls. By empowering women through education and capacity-building, it addresses gender disparities and aligns with SDG-5 (Gender Equality), promoting women as key agents of social transformation.

Significance for India@100

The Panch Parivartan Strategy serves as a unique model of value-based, inclusive, and sustainable education, blending modern learning tools (AI, robotics, coding) with India’s traditional wisdom (yoga, Sanskrit, dharmic values). It promotes an education model that is contextually Indian yet globally relevant, echoing the goals of the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020.

In a rapidly changing global order, this initiative represents a bottom-up approach to educational reform, fostering a generation of youth who are skilled, ethical, environmentally aware, and socially responsible—hallmarks of a Viksit Bharat (Developed India).

In News:

India’s green hydrogen sector stands at a critical crossroads. Once buoyed by global enthusiasm for clean fuels, it now faces export-related headwinds due to geopolitical uncertainties and wavering international policy commitments. In response, India has strategically pivoted toward building a robust domestic ecosystem to ensure long-term energy security and decarbonisation.

National Green Hydrogen Mission

Launched in 2023, the National Green Hydrogen Mission aims to establish India as a global green hydrogen hub. With an outlay of ?19,744 crore, the mission targets the production of 5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of green hydrogen by 2030, along with domestic manufacturing of electrolysers under the SIGHT (Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition) programme.

To ensure credibility and transparency, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) introduced a measurement and certification framework in April 2025 to verify green hydrogen at the production stage. These foundational steps are essential for market integrity, both domestically and internationally.

Export Slowdown: Policy and Geopolitical Challenges

India’s early ambitions to become a major green hydrogen exporter have been hampered by global developments. Projects like ReNew’s green ammonia facility in Odisha face uncertain prospects due to declining international demand. Contributing factors include policy uncertainty in key markets like the United States, where a potential rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act (via the “Big Beautiful Bill”) threatens long-term clean energy investments.

Moreover, European procurement initiatives, such as Germany’s Hintco under the H2Global Foundation, have seen low industry response, reflecting weak investor confidence. In response, India has initiated talks with European ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp, and is pushing for FTA provisions to lower import duties on green hydrogen, aiming to keep future export channels open.

Domestic Market Creation:

Faced with uncertain exports, India is actively cultivating domestic demand. A recent tender for 8 lakh tonnes of green hydrogen received full bids, indicating growing interest from Indian firms. The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) is managing another tender for 7 lakh tonnes, primarily for the fertiliser sector.

Pilot initiatives are also being deployed in sectors such as steel, shipping, and transportation. For example, hydrogen fuel cell buses are being tested in five cities, including Ladakh. Industry experts advocate for mandatory blending in sectors like fertilisers to accelerate adoption.

Cost Competitiveness: The Core Challenge

At present, green hydrogen costs $4–$5 per kg, significantly higher than $2.3–$2.5 per kg for grey hydrogen. A report by CII, Bain & Co., and RMI attributes this to immature supply chains, high capital costs, and limited scale. The report recommends pragmatic interventions such as:

• Blending green hydrogen into existing grey hydrogen or natural gas systems.
• Promoting uptake in niche sectors like ceramics and chemicals.
• Public procurement of green steel to create economies of scale.

Conclusion:

While India’s long-term vision to lead the green hydrogen transition remains intact, current challenges necessitate a strategic rebalancing. Prioritising domestic demand creation, infrastructure development, and cost reduction over near-term exports will be key. If implemented effectively, India may replicate its renewable energy success, positioning itself as a global leader in green hydrogen by the next decade.

In News:

India’s increasing dependence on imports of pulses and edible oils has raised serious concerns about agricultural sustainability, trade deficits, and farmer welfare. Despite policy claims of self-reliance in agriculture, recent trends highlight structural imbalances in domestic production and pricing mechanisms, especially for pulses and oilseeds.

Farmers at the Receiving End

Farmers cultivating pulses and oilseeds, such as moong, chana, masoor, and soyabean, are struggling due to poor price realization and lack of systematic procurement at Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Rao Gulab Singh Lodhi, a farmer from Madhya Pradesh, harvested 90 quintals of moong in summer 2025. Despite an MSP of ?8,682/quintal, he had to sell his produce in the open market at ?6,000/quintal due to the absence of procurement infrastructure. Soyabean prices, too, are well below MSP, selling at ?4,100–4,200/quintal against an MSP of ?5,328 (for 2025–26).

Unlike rice and wheat, for which procurement is extensive and assured, pulses and oilseeds lack institutional support, even in regions where agro-climatic conditions favour their cultivation. This discourages farmers from growing these critical crops, despite using high-yielding and climate-resilient varieties.

Pulses: From Self-Reliance to Import Surge

India witnessed a record 7.3 million tonnes (mt) of pulses imports worth $5.5 billion in 2024–25, surpassing the previous high of 6.6 mt in 2016–17. This comes after years of reduced imports, thanks to improved domestic production which had peaked at 27.3 mt in 2021–22.

However, the El Niño-induced drought in 2023–24 brought down production to 24.2 mt, leading to higher retail inflation in pulses and prompting duty cuts on imports. While these imports helped control prices—with CPI inflation in pulses falling to –8.2% by May 2025—they also depressed mandi prices. In Maharashtra, arhar and chana are currently trading below MSPs, impacting farmer incomes.

Major pulse imports in 2024–25 included:

• 2.2 mt of yellow/white peas (Canada, Russia),
• 1.6 mt of chana (Australia),
• 1.2 mt each of arhar and masoor (Africa, Canada, Australia),
• 0.8 mt of urad (Myanmar, Brazil).

Edible Oils: Worsening Import Dependency

India’s vegetable oil imports more than doubled in a decade—from 7.9 mt in 2013–14 to 16.4 mt in 2024–25. In value terms, imports jumped from $7.2 billion to $20.8 billion, driven partly by global supply disruptions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war) and high domestic consumption.

India now imports over 60% of its edible oil needs, with palm (7.9 mt), soyabean (4.8 mt), and sunflower oil (3.5 mt) forming the bulk. In May 2025, CPI inflation for vegetable oils stood at 17.9%. In response, the Centre slashed import duties on crude palm, soyabean, and sunflower oil from 20% to 10%, reducing the overall tariff to 16.5%.

While the move may lower consumer prices, industry bodies like the Soyabean Processors Association of India have warned it will "flood the market with cheap imports", making domestic oilseed cultivation less viable. Farmers may shift to alternative crops in the coming kharif season, further weakening India’s self-sufficiency goals.

Conclusion

India’s growing import reliance for essential food commodities like pulses and edible oils, coupled with poor farm-level price realization and weak procurement systems, undermines the objectives of food security and self-reliance. Sustainable import substitution must be driven by robust domestic production incentives, fair pricing mechanisms, and resilient procurement frameworks—especially for non-cereal crops.

Context:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most critical metric used to measure the size and performance of a country’s economy. The "base year" is the reference year against which future GDP growth is calculated. India’s current GDP base year is 2011–12. The government, through the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), is now preparing to revise it to 2022–23, with the updated series to be released in February 2026.

Why GDP Base Years are Revised

Base year revisions are necessary to reflect structural changes in the economy, incorporate improved and updated data sources, and align with global statistical standards. GDP calculation, by its definition—the market value of all final goods and services produced in an economy—requires accurate, timely, and sectorally-relevant data. However, India’s economy evolves rapidly, particularly with the expansion of the services sector and changes in consumption, production, and labour patterns.

Past revisions (seven since 1948-49) reflect efforts to modernize methodology and include newer data sources, such as the shift from decennial Census-based workforce estimates to five-yearly Employment-Unemployment Surveys by the NSSO. This aligns with the National Statistical Commission’s recommendation of rebasing economic indices every five years.

The last revision occurred in 2015 (base year changed to 2011–12), following which methodological changes attracted controversy. Experts, including former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, argued that the revised methodology overestimated India’s GDP growth, especially in manufacturing, due to reliance on corporate database MCA-21 over the traditional Annual Survey of Industries.

Why the 2026 Revision Is Crucial

The 2026 revision comes after India missed a base year update in 2017–18 due to data-related concerns. Two key surveys—the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)—faced credibility and methodological challenges. The 2017-18 CES suggested rising poverty, while the PLFS showed a 45-year high in unemployment—trends contrary to government narratives. These issues led to scrapping the proposed 2017–18 base year.

Additionally, disruptive policy changes like demonetisation (2016) and the rollout of GST (2017), followed by the COVID-19 pandemic, meant the following years were not "normal" reference points. The 2022–23 base year is likely to mark the first post-pandemic stable year suitable for a revised series.

This revision is especially significant as India is poised to become the world’s third-largest economy by nominal GDP. At such a juncture, the quality, accuracy, and global credibility of GDP data will directly influence investor confidence, credit ratings, and policymaking.

The base year revision will also extend to other indicators: the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) will be revised to 2022–23, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2023–24. These changes ensure that inflation and industrial output metrics remain reflective of present-day consumption and production structures.

Conclusion

Revising the GDP base year is not merely a technical exercise—it is central to economic governance. The upcoming 2026 revision must restore faith in India's statistical systems, offer a transparent methodology, and align with international best practices. Its credibility will shape India’s economic narrative for the decade to come, both domestically and on the global stage.

In News:

India’s engagement in the Bay of Bengal is increasingly being shaped by the intersection of strategic priorities and economic imperatives. While New Delhi seeks to position itself as the regional integrator and promoter of cooperative regionalism, recent developments — particularly in relation to Bangladesh — underscore the challenges of maintaining this balance.

At the surface, India’s maritime and port infrastructure along the eastern seaboard has seen considerable progress. Cargo throughput at Visakhapatnam, Paradip, and Haldia has steadily risen. Initiatives like the Sagarmala Programme and coastal shipping incentives have doubled cargo movement on the east coast in the last decade. The signing of the BIMSTEC Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement in early 2025 further aims to harmonise customs procedures and reduce port-related frictions.

Yet, India’s decision to withdraw the transshipment facility granted to Bangladesh in April 2025, which had enabled Dhaka to route exports through Indian ports to third-country destinations, sparked concern. While Indian officials cited logistical congestion, many in Bangladesh interpreted the move as politically motivated — possibly in response to Dhaka’s growing engagement with China and a speech by a Bangladeshi leader in Beijing framing India’s northeast as “landlocked” and dependent on Bangladesh.

This decision, followed by India’s restrictions in May 2025 on the import of seven Bangladeshi product categories via land ports, has fueled bilateral tensions. These developments have particularly impacted Bangladesh’s ready-made garment sector, which constitutes over 85% of its export earnings and had increasingly relied on Indian ports for efficiency. New routing requirements via Kolkata or Nhava Sheva have added delays and costs, weakening the trade facilitation narrative India has long championed.

While Bangladesh has asserted its regional role by diversifying trade partners — including reopening maritime trade with Pakistan — these are sovereign choices. India’s use of trade access as a signaling mechanism, if perceived as coercive, risks undermining the credibility of the neutral and rules-based regional architecture it seeks to build under BIMSTEC.

This is significant beyond bilateral ties. Regional actors like Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Thailand observe India's actions closely. If India's trade facilitation appears contingent on political alignment, smaller states may opt to hedge or diversify partnerships, potentially weakening India’s centrality in the Bay of Bengal order.

India remains the region’s best-equipped actor in terms of port capacity, connectivity, and logistics infrastructure, giving it a leadership edge. However, credibility and consistency are equally vital. Without a clear separation between economic cooperation and strategic messaging, India’s regional ambitions risk being derailed.

To restore balance, India could consider reinstating the transshipment facility under a rules-based framework, ensuring transparency and predictability in trade logistics. This would reassure neighbours, revive trust, and reinforce India’s image as a stable anchor in a geopolitically dynamic region.

The Bay of Bengal is at a crossroads. It can evolve into a vibrant economic corridor between South and Southeast Asia, or descend into a fragmented arena of mistrust. India’s choices today will determine whether regional cooperation remains the cornerstone of its foreign policy — or becomes another casualty of strategic competition.

In News:

The recent crash of Air India flight AI-171 in Ahmedabad, claiming 241 lives, marks the deadliest aviation accident in India in over a decade. As investigations proceed, the spotlight is on India’s aviation safety standards and regulatory preparedness, particularly the role of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and India’s standing in global aviation safety audits.

India has received commendable recognition from two premier global aviation oversight bodies: the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). These ratings assume greater relevance now, as the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) leads the probe into the Air India crash, in coordination with international stakeholders.

ICAO’s Positive Evaluation of India’s Aviation Oversight

In its 2022 audit under the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP), the ICAO rated India’s overall Effective Implementation (EI) score at 85.65%, a sharp improvement from 69.95% in 2018. India outperformed the global average across all eight USOAP parameters—legislation, organisation, licensing, operations, airworthiness, accident investigation, air navigation services, and aerodromes.

In two critical areas, India scored remarkably high:

• Operations: India scored 94.02%, compared to the global average of 72.28%, and even surpassed the US (86.51%) and China (90%).
• Airworthiness: India achieved 97.06%, again ahead of the US (89.13%) and China (94.83%).

These ratings reflect significant reforms in civil aviation governance and oversight mechanisms. India’s regulatory capabilities are aligned with ICAO protocols, demonstrating strong institutional capacity to manage operational safety and technical compliance in aviation.

FAA's Endorsement: Retaining Category 1 Status

Further affirming India’s safety standards, the FAA retained India’s Category 1 status in April 2023 after a comprehensive audit in 2021 of DGCA’s oversight in aircraft operations, airworthiness, and personnel licensing. This classification means that India complies with international safety norms under the Chicago Convention and allows Indian carriers to expand operations to the US and enter into code-share agreements with American airlines.

The FAA acknowledged DGCA’s consistent improvement and commitment to safety, especially considering India’s rapid aviation growth—it is the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market and the fastest-growing among major economies.

Multinational Collaboration in Crash Investigation

In the wake of the AI-171 crash, a multi-agency probe has been launched. The AAIB, as per ICAO norms, is leading the investigation. The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the UK’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB-UK) are involved due to the aircraft’s American origin (Boeing), and the presence of British citizens onboard. Boeing and engine manufacturer GE will also assist in the investigation, adhering to ICAO’s investigation protocols.

Conclusion

India’s strong global safety ratings by ICAO and FAA underscore the DGCA’s enhanced regulatory performance and the country’s growing credibility in civil aviation safety. However, the tragic AI-171 crash serves as a reminder that even well-rated aviation systems must remain vigilant, responsive, and transparent—especially in post-crisis investigations.

In News:

The Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006, was enacted to address the historical injustice faced by Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (OTFDs) by recognising their rights over forest land and resources. Its implementation, for nearly two decades, has been the sole responsibility of State governments. However, in a major policy shift, the Union government has begun funding support structures to aid its implementation through the Dharti Aaba Janjatiya Gram Utkarsh Abhiyaan (DAJGUA), launched in October 2024.

DAJGUA and Structural Support for FRA

For the first time, the Ministry of Tribal Affairs has sanctioned 324 district-level and 17 State-level Forest Rights Act (FRA) cells across 18 States and Union Territories. These cells aim to facilitate, not replace, the statutory process mandated under the FRA. The funding is routed through Grants-in-Aid General, with a budget allocation of ?8.67 lakh per district cell and ?25.85 lakh per State-level cell. Operational control rests with State Tribal Welfare Departments.

States like Madhya Pradesh (55 cells), Chhattisgarh (30), Telangana (29), Maharashtra (26), Assam (25), and Jharkhand (24) have received the highest number of sanctioned FRA cells. Notably, while Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh report low pendency, States like Assam and Telangana have pending claim rates exceeding 60% and 50% respectively.

Mandate and Function of FRA Cells

These FRA cells are designed to support claimants and Gram Sabhas in the technical and administrative aspects of filing claims. Their responsibilities include:

• Preparing documentation and gathering supporting evidence;
• Assisting in Gram Sabha resolutions;
• Digitising land records and maintaining claim status;
• Facilitating the conversion of forest habitations into revenue villages;
• Supporting demarcation and record updates.

Importantly, these cells are not empowered to influence the decisions of statutory committees such as Forest Rights Committees (FRCs), Sub-Divisional Level Committees (SDLCs), or District Level Committees (DLCs), which are central to the FRA’s decentralised decision-making framework.

Concerns of a Parallel Mechanism

Despite their limited mandate, forest rights activists and experts express concerns that these cells may create a parallel mechanism outside the FRA’s statutory framework. Critics argue that the responsibilities assigned to the FRA cells—documentation, verification, facilitation—already fall under the statutory roles of the FRCs and other committees. This overlap risks creating confusion at the grassroots level and may dilute the authority of legally mandated bodies.

Furthermore, structural challenges—such as infrequent SDLC/DLC meetings and delays by Forest Departments even after DLC approval—are cited as key reasons for pending claims, which currently stand at 14.45% of the total 51.11 lakh claims filed across 21 States/UTs. Over 42% of the 43 lakh claims disposed of have been rejected, highlighting systemic inefficiencies.

A Cautious Step Forward

While DAJGUA represents a broader tribal welfare initiative involving 25 schemes across 17 ministries, the FRA facilitation component must tread carefully to respect the legal sanctity of the FRA. If implemented transparently and collaboratively, the FRA cells can bridge capacity gaps and support timely disposal of claims.

However, the success of this intervention hinges on maintaining the balance between administrative innovation and legal integrity—ensuring that support structures complement, rather than compete with, the FRA’s decentralised governance.

In News:

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites in Tehran. The attack resulted in the deaths of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard chief and two top nuclear scientists, marking a sharp escalation in the long-running shadow conflict between Israel and Iran.

Backdrop: Iran’s Nuclear Programme and Global Concerns

Iran claims its nuclear programme is peaceful, aimed at energy production and medical research. However, international skepticism remains high. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in two decades, citing a lack of transparency, failure to account for undeclared nuclear material, and enrichment of uranium up to 60% purity, dangerously close to weapons-grade (90%). According to reports, Iran possesses enough stockpiled uranium to build up to nine nuclear weapons, raising alarm globally.

Israel’s Strategic Calculus and the Execution of the Strike

Israel has long opposed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). The June 2025 assault was the culmination of years of covert operations, including the 2020 assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and earlier strikes on Iran-linked targets. The latest strike, targeting nuclear and missile facilities as well as residences of top scientists and generals, is seen as the most severe blow to Iran since the 1979 revolution.

The collapse of Iran’s regional deterrence network—its so-called “axis of resistance”—following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 played a critical role. With Syria no longer serving as a strategic corridor between Tehran and Hezbollah, Israel perceived an opportune moment to act.

US Foreign Policy Shift and Trump’s Role

The re-election of President Donald Trump in 2024 introduced a more confrontational posture toward Iran. Although the U.S. initially delayed the planned May strike to explore diplomacy, the failure of talks led to U.S. backing for the June operation, using military pressure as leverage for a new nuclear deal demanding Iran's full disarmament.

Regional Fallout and Global Economic Implications

The strike triggered an immediate 8% rise in global oil prices, exposing energy vulnerabilities across oil-importing nations. Particularly affected is India, which imports over 80% of its crude oil. Though India imports little directly from Iran, it depends heavily on Gulf producers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, whose exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint now under threat.