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India’s green hydrogen sector stands at a critical crossroads. Once buoyed by global enthusiasm for clean fuels, it now faces export-related headwinds due to geopolitical uncertainties and wavering international policy commitments. In response, India has strategically pivoted toward building a robust domestic ecosystem to ensure long-term energy security and decarbonisation.

National Green Hydrogen Mission

Launched in 2023, the National Green Hydrogen Mission aims to establish India as a global green hydrogen hub. With an outlay of ?19,744 crore, the mission targets the production of 5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of green hydrogen by 2030, along with domestic manufacturing of electrolysers under the SIGHT (Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition) programme.

To ensure credibility and transparency, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) introduced a measurement and certification framework in April 2025 to verify green hydrogen at the production stage. These foundational steps are essential for market integrity, both domestically and internationally.

Export Slowdown: Policy and Geopolitical Challenges

India’s early ambitions to become a major green hydrogen exporter have been hampered by global developments. Projects like ReNew’s green ammonia facility in Odisha face uncertain prospects due to declining international demand. Contributing factors include policy uncertainty in key markets like the United States, where a potential rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act (via the “Big Beautiful Bill”) threatens long-term clean energy investments.

Moreover, European procurement initiatives, such as Germany’s Hintco under the H2Global Foundation, have seen low industry response, reflecting weak investor confidence. In response, India has initiated talks with European ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp, and is pushing for FTA provisions to lower import duties on green hydrogen, aiming to keep future export channels open.

Domestic Market Creation:

Faced with uncertain exports, India is actively cultivating domestic demand. A recent tender for 8 lakh tonnes of green hydrogen received full bids, indicating growing interest from Indian firms. The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) is managing another tender for 7 lakh tonnes, primarily for the fertiliser sector.

Pilot initiatives are also being deployed in sectors such as steel, shipping, and transportation. For example, hydrogen fuel cell buses are being tested in five cities, including Ladakh. Industry experts advocate for mandatory blending in sectors like fertilisers to accelerate adoption.

Cost Competitiveness: The Core Challenge

At present, green hydrogen costs $4–$5 per kg, significantly higher than $2.3–$2.5 per kg for grey hydrogen. A report by CII, Bain & Co., and RMI attributes this to immature supply chains, high capital costs, and limited scale. The report recommends pragmatic interventions such as:

• Blending green hydrogen into existing grey hydrogen or natural gas systems.
• Promoting uptake in niche sectors like ceramics and chemicals.
• Public procurement of green steel to create economies of scale.

Conclusion:

While India’s long-term vision to lead the green hydrogen transition remains intact, current challenges necessitate a strategic rebalancing. Prioritising domestic demand creation, infrastructure development, and cost reduction over near-term exports will be key. If implemented effectively, India may replicate its renewable energy success, positioning itself as a global leader in green hydrogen by the next decade.