In News:

Despite the expected cooling influence of La Niña, January 2025 became the hottest January on record, with global average surface air temperatures 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This marked the 18th out of the last 19 months that global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold. The inability of La Niña to curb this warming trend underscores the intensifying impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Understanding La Niña and the ENSO Cycle

La Niña, meaning "The Little Girl" in Spanish, is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a recurring climate phenomenon involving variations in oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

• Phases of ENSO:
  • El Niño (warm phase): Warmer ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, weakening trade winds and reducing rainfall in the western Pacific.
  • La Niña (cool phase): Colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, strengthening trade winds and enhancing rainfall in the western Pacific.
  • Neutral phase: Sea surface temperatures are near average with no dominant anomalies.
• Mechanism: During La Niña, strengthened trade winds push warm surface waters westward, causing cold waters to upwell in the eastern Pacific. This typically results in global cooling.
• ENSO Cycle: These phases occur every 2 to 7 years and influence weather patterns globally. The ENSO cycle leads to sea surface temperature variations between ±1°C to ±3°C from the long-term average.

The 2024–25 La Niña: A Weakened Climate Driver

• Emergence: The current La Niña phase began in December 2024, later than anticipated. Forecasts had expected it around September 2024, giving it insufficient time to strengthen before its typical peak in the Northern Hemisphere winter.
• Intensity: It is projected to be a mild La Niña, reducing its capacity to significantly influence global temperatures.
• Past Events: The most recent La Niña cycle lasted from 2020 to 2023, followed by a strong El Niño through mid-2023.
• Delayed Cooling Effect: The weaker-than-usual La Niña failed to produce the anticipated cooling, surprising scientists. As Julien Nicolas from Copernicus observed, the expected “temporary brake” on global temperatures did not materialize.

Why January 2025 Remained Hot Despite La Niña

• Global Ocean Warming: Oceans have retained higher-than-usual warmth due to long-term climate change, diluting La Niña’s cooling influence.
• Weak La Niña Onset: A late and weak phase meant less disruption to the prevailing warming trend. According to NOAA, La Niña events need more time and intensity to impact temperatures effectively.
• Persistent GHG Emissions: The concentration of greenhouse gases reached record highs in 2024, adding to the Earth's heat burden. Typically, La Niña-induced rains spur vegetation growth and carbon absorption, but weaker rains in this cycle limited that effect.
• Reduced Aerosols: Declines in atmospheric aerosols—due to cleaner air policies—lessened their usual cooling impact. Aerosols scatter solar radiation and influence cloud dynamics, contributing to temperature moderation.

Global and Regional Climatic Impacts of La Niña

Despite its weak intensity, La Niña still shaped regional weather in varied ways:

Asia

• India: Higher monsoon rainfall (July–September) is expected. This boosts rice production but may reduce pulse output in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
• Southeast Asia: Nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines face increased rainfall—raising flood risks but aiding rice and palm oil yields.

South America

• Southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina, and southern Bolivia face drought due to reduced rainfall, affecting soybean and maize crops.
• Northern Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and parts of Ecuador and Peru receive excess rain, risking floods.

Africa

• East Africa: Experiences dry conditions in December–January, hampering harvests in February–March.
• Southern Africa: Receives above-average rainfall, benefitting crops like maize, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans.

Oceania

• Australia: Faces heavy rain and possible flooding in its northern and eastern regions.

North America

• Southern US: Experiences dry conditions.
• Northern US, Canada, and Alaska face wetter, stormier weather.

Significance for India

1. Agriculture: Enhanced monsoon rains improve farm productivity, especially rice.
2. Water Resources: Better reservoir levels alleviate water stress.
3. Energy: Increases hydropower potential.
4. Heat Mitigation: Reduces severity of heatwaves compared to El Niño years.

Monitoring & Prediction

• Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): Tracks 3-month average SST anomalies. Values below –0.5°C indicate La Niña.
• Nino-3.4 Index: Confirms ENSO thresholds. Anomalies of ±0.5°C signal event onset; ±1.5°C indicates strong events.
• Tools Used: Satellite data, trade wind strength, and ocean buoys support forecasts. La Niña can be predicted up to two years in advance if preceded by a strong El Niño.

Conclusion:

The 2024–25 La Niña's inability to cool global temperatures highlights a worrisome trend—the diminishing moderating influence of natural climate phenomena. With greenhouse gas emissions continuing to rise and natural cooling cycles weakening, urgent global action is needed to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change impacts.

In News:

A study by researchers from India’s National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) has found that seasonal variations in Arctic Sea ice are impacting the Indian monsoon.

What is the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), occurring from July to September, is one of the most significant monsoon systems globally. During the summer, the Central Asian and Indian landmasses heat up more quickly than the surrounding oceans. This temperature difference creates a low-pressure zone at the Tropic of Cancer known as the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Trade winds from the southeast are then deflected toward the Indian subcontinent due to the Coriolis effect and the low pressure they encounter after crossing the equator. As these winds pass over the Arabian Sea, they pick up moisture and bring rain to India. The southwest monsoon divides into two branches over the Indian landmass. The Arabian Sea branch delivers rain to the west coast, while the Bay of Bengal branch brings rain to the eastern and northeastern parts of India. These branches converge over Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, with the Arabian Sea branch moving inward and the Bay of Bengal branch following the Himalayas.

Complexity of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Recent climate models have revealed that the ISMR is influenced by the surface temperatures of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans. Additionally, the circum-global teleconnection (CGT), a large-scale atmospheric wave at mid-latitudes, also plays a significant role in affecting the monsoon.

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice on the Indian Monsoon

The study indicates that reduced sea ice in the central Arctic results in decreased rainfall in western and peninsular India, but increased rainfall in central and northern India. Conversely, lower sea ice levels in the upper latitudes, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea region, delay the onset of the monsoon and make it more unpredictable.

Other Atmospheric Systems Influencing the Pattern

When sea ice levels in the central Arctic rise, the heat transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere triggers cyclonic circulation at lower latitudes, such as the North Atlantic. This process enhances Rossby waves—fast-moving air currents created by Earth's rotation and temperature differences—which move from west to east. These waves cause high pressure over northwest India and low pressure over the Mediterranean region, strengthening the Asian jet stream over the Caspian Sea and shifting the subtropical easterly jet northward. This shift leads to increased rainfall in western and peninsular India. On the other hand, decreased sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea generates an anticyclonic circulation (clear skies) over northwest Europe. This disturbance affects the upper atmosphere over subtropical Asia and India, resulting in increased rainfall in northeastern India while leaving central and northwest regions drier.

Role of Climate Change

Climate change accelerates the reduction of Arctic sea ice, which intensifies the variability and unpredictability of the ISMR. Lower Arctic sea ice contributes to more frequent and severe droughts in some areas, while causing excessive rainfall and flooding in others. The study underscores the urgent need for expanded research on climate dynamics and more accurate monsoon forecasts to address these changing patterns.

• Current Conditions:
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions.
  • La Niña is expected to develop towards the end of the monsoon season, around the end of this month.
• Forecasting Challenges:
  • Major global agencies have struggled with accurate forecasts for La Niña’s onset this year.
  • Initial predictions suggested La Niña would start around July, but it has been delayed.
• Understanding La Niña:
  • La Niña, meaning "The Little Girl" in Spanish, is a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
  • ENSO influences global climate through changes in tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures.
  • ENSO phases:
    • El Niño (warm phase)
    • La Niña (cool phase)
    • Neutral
• ENSO Phases Explained:
  • Neutral Phase: Eastern Pacific is cooler; trade winds drive warm water westward, causing upwelling of cooler waters.
  • El Niño Phase: Weakened trade winds result in warmer eastern Pacific waters.
  • La Niña Phase: Strengthened trade winds push more warm water to the western Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific.
• Impact on India:
  • El Niño typically reduces monsoon rainfall; La Niña generally enhances it.
  • The previous El Niño occurred from June 2023 to May 2024.
  • La Niña episodes can influence severe weather patterns and are linked to higher temperatures, heavy precipitation, and droughts.
• Weather Model Predictions:
  • A strong El Niño ended in June, transitioning ENSO to neutral.
  • Global models initially forecasted La Niña for July but revised this to August-October.
  • IMD’s forecast since April predicted La Niña in the latter half of the monsoon season, aiming for enhanced rainfall in August and September.
• Reasons for Delayed Onset:
  • The expected La Niña might be weak, complicating predictions.
  • Other atmospheric factors, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, impact weather models.
• Current and Future Impacts:
  • La Niña's first signs are expected by late September or early October.
  • It is projected to peak in November and continue through the northern hemisphere winter.
  • Monsoon Impact: La Niña’s delayed onset means it won’t significantly affect the current southwest monsoon, though India saw a 16% surplus in August rainfall and a forecast of 109% “above normal” rain for September.
• Potential Effects:
  • Northeast Monsoon: La Niña could influence the northeast (winter) monsoon (October-December), impacting Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka, and Kerala. While La Niña typically doesn’t favor northeast monsoon rainfall, exceptions have occurred.
  • Cyclone Activity: La Niña years often see increased cyclone activity in the north Indian Ocean, with higher intensity and longer-lasting storms.
  • Winter Weather: Historically, La Niña years lead to harsher and colder winters, suggesting a potentially severe winter ahead.

Why is it in the News?

Following the recent presidential elections in Maldives, there are concerns about the potential impact on India-Maldives relations due to the 'India-Out' campaign led by President-elect Mohamed Muizzu.

Context:

• The recent election in Maldives resulted in the victory of a candidate perceived as Pro-China for the presidential role, sparking apprehensions for India.
• Maldives had a historical shift from an Executive Presidency system dating back to 1968 to a multi-party democracy in 2008.
• The absence of a re-elected incumbent president since 2008 is causing concern for India on this occasion.

Geographical Bonds Between India and Maldives:

• The Maldives is an archipelago spread across 90,000 square kilometres, predominantly comprising 99.6% of the ocean, leaving the remaining land scattered among over 1,200 islands.
• A concerning forecast by experts suggests that by 2050, 80% of the Maldives may face submersion due to the effects of 'Global Boiling.'
• In this geographical tapestry, India emerges as the closest neighbour, positioned just 70 nautical miles away.
• In times of crisis, it is India alone that stands as Maldives' immediate and unwavering ally.
• The profound words of Ibn Khaldun, the Tunisian philosopher, find resonance in the destiny woven by geography between these two nations.
• As he asserted, geography plays a pivotal role, and in the case of India and the Maldives, it s

How Has India Assisted the Maldives in the Past?:

• Essential Support and Communication Dependence: Historically, Maldives has leaned on India for essentials and communication, with India standing as a consistent and indispensable factor in the island nation's development.
• Even during the British protectorate years (1887-1965), Maldives relied on India for essentials and as a gateway to the outside world.
• State Bank of India's Role in Tourist Economy: India played a pivotal role in shaping Maldives' tourist economy, with the State Bank of India serving as a major financier in building the foundation of the country's tourism sector.
• This enduring support positions the State Bank of India as the largest bank in the Maldives to this day.
• Non-Interference in Internal Developments: Crucially, India has refrained from interfering in Maldives' internal affairs, offering support during critical moments such as the attempted coup in 1988 and subsequent assistance in various forms over the decades.
• The profound dependence of Maldives on India, coupled with India's unconditional support, has played a pivotal role in the island nation's emergence as the highest per capita country in South Asia.
• India's Prompt Response in Crises: During three major crises in 1988 (coup), 2004 (tsunami), and 2014 (water shortage), India emerged as the first responder, exemplifying its commitment to Maldives' well-being.
• Critical Role of Indian Professionals: In education and health, Indian teachers and doctors continue to play crucial roles, extending their influence even to remote inhabited islands.
• Strategic Defense Cooperation: The strategic defence cooperation between India and Maldives goes beyond material assistance, focusing on capacity building through joint exercises like Ekuverin and Ekatha, as well as collaboration in surveillance assets, training 1,400 MNDF trainers in recent years, and disaster management efforts.

What is the Current Situation of India-Maldives Bilateral Relations?

• India stands as the predominant partner in various sectors, be it trade or tourism.
• Demonstrating commitment to elevating Maldives' infrastructure, India is actively engaged in projects such as enhancing connectivity in Greater Male.
• India plays a vital role in supplying a diverse range of essential commodities in bulk, including rice, wheat flour, sugar, potatoes, onions, eggs, vegetables, and even special dispensations like river sand and construction materials.

India's Strategic Interests in Maldives:

• Strategic Significance: Maldives holds paramount importance for India as a primary line of defense against various threats, including terrorism, piracy, drug trafficking, narcotics, and maritime crimes.
• Geographically, Maldives is strategically positioned merely 70 nautical miles from Minicoy and 300 nautical miles from India's West coast.
• It serves as a pivotal point within the commercial sea lanes traversing the Indian Ocean.
• Geo-Political Alignment: India's interests in Maldives align on various fronts, encompassing:
• Securing sea lanes of communication.
• Combating piracy and sea-based terrorism.
• Transforming the Indian Ocean into a conflict-free zone, restoring its status as a peaceful maritime region.
• Exploring the potential of the blue economy and enhancing trade relations.
• Internal Security Concerns: Maldives' proximity and shared maritime borders have direct implications for India's internal security.
• The upsurge in Maldivians joining terrorist groups, such as the Islamic State (IS), poses a significant challenge.
• Political instability and socio-economic uncertainties contribute to the growth of Islamist radicalism, raising concerns about the potential use of remote Maldivian islands as launch pads for terror attacks against India and its interests.

What are the Challenges to India-Maldives Bilateral Relations?

• Rising Islamic Radicalization: The Maldives has witnessed an alarming increase in per capita numbers of individuals joining foreign terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.
• A 2020 report by the European Foundation for South Asian Studies highlights the challenge of growing Islamic radicalization among the Maldivian population.
• India Out Campaign: The India Out campaign, supported by Maldives' opposition leader Abdulla Yameen and the newly elected president, projects a sceptical view of India's investments and defence partnerships.
• Allegations include concerns about compromising the sovereignty of the island nation by allowing Indian military presence, fostering a negative sentiment towards India's role as a net-security provider.
• The China Factor: China's engagement in the region is perceived as self-serving, characterized by debt financing leading to potential debt traps and China's expanding influence.
• Concerns arise over China's interference in Maldives' internal politics and support for conservative elements, posing a threat to the development of a vibrant democracy.
• There are apprehensions that elements aligning with China may perpetuate a legacy of controlled regimes from the Gayoom era, potentially compromising the nation's long-term interests.

Way Ahead for India-Maldives Relations: Detrimental Effects of Anti-India Campaigns

• India remains steadfast in its commitments to the Maldives, consistently investing in efforts to strengthen bilateral relations.
• Any hasty attempts to unravel this carefully nurtured partnership are poised to inflict more harm on the Maldives than on India itself.
• A telling example is the 2012 'GMR out' campaign, which cost Maldives a substantial $270 million payout to GMR.
• The Yameen era, marked by a pro-China policy, plunged Maldives into a debt crisis, underscoring the potential pitfalls of such geopolitical shifts.

Conclusion

Throughout the decades, India has been a reliable source of security assistance for Maldives, extending a hand of friendship and trust. It is anticipated that the newly elected President Muizzu will likely refrain from taking drastic measures that could alter the fabric of relations with India. While elections are often driven by emotions and promises, the pragmatic realities of governance may lead him to recognize the potential repercussions of undermining the longstanding ties with India.