In News:

The National Statistics Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, released its annual publication, Statistical Report on Value of Output from Agriculture and Allied Sectors (2011–12 to 2023–24). This comprehensive report provides granular data on output values across crop, livestock, forestry, and fisheries sectors at both current and constant (2011–12) prices, offering crucial insights into trends, sectoral contributions, and regional dynamics in Indian agriculture.

Growth Trajectory and Sectoral Contributions

The Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture and allied sectors at current prices rose by 225%, from ?1,502 thousand crore in 2011–12 to ?4,878 thousand crore in 2023–24. At constant prices, the Gross Value of Output (GVO) increased by 54.6%, from ?1,908 thousand crore to ?2,949 thousand crore during the same period.

The crop sector remained the backbone of the agricultural economy, contributing ?1,595 thousand crore or 54.1% of the total GVO in 2023–24. Within this, cereals and fruits & vegetables together formed 52.5% of the crop output. Notably, paddy and wheat alone accounted for 85% of cereal GVO. Five states—Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Telangana, and Haryana—contributed 53% of the total cereal output, with Uttar Pradesh maintaining its top position despite a decline in share from 18.6% to 17.2%.

Shifting Dynamics in Horticulture

The horticulture sector has witnessed dynamic changes. In fruits, banana (?47,000 crore) surpassed mango (?46,100 crore) in 2023–24, breaking mango’s longstanding dominance. In the vegetable group, potato retained its lead, with GVO rising from ?21,300 crore to ?37,200 crore between 2011–12 and 2023–24.

Floriculture emerged as a growing commercial interest, with its GVO nearly doubling from ?17,400 crore to ?28,100 crore. The shifts in leading states in the production of fruits, vegetables, and floriculture underscore regional diversification in agricultural growth.

Rise of Livestock and Allied Sectors

The livestock sector experienced substantial growth, with its GVO nearly doubling from ?488 thousand crore to ?919 thousand crore. While milk remained the dominant product, its share slightly decreased from 67.2% to 65.9%, whereas meat products increased their share from 19.7% to 24.1%.

In the condiments and spices category, Madhya Pradesh emerged as the top contributor with a 19.2% share, followed by Karnataka (16.6%) and Gujarat (15.5%).

The forestry and logging sector saw a moderate increase in GVO from ?149 thousand crore to ?227 thousand crore. Significantly, the share of industrial wood surged from 49.9% to 70.2%, indicating growing commercialization.

Emerging Importance of Fisheries

The fishing and aquaculture sector is becoming increasingly vital, with its contribution to total agricultural GVO rising from 4.2% to 7.0% over the period. While inland fish share declined from 57.7% to 50.2%, marine fish increased from 42.3% to 49.8%. States like West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh witnessed substantial structural shifts in fisheries production patterns.

Context:

In a significant development, China recently hosted the first China-Pakistan-Bangladesh trilateral dialogue in Kunming, following a similar China-Pakistan-Afghanistan meeting. These efforts signal Beijing’s strategic push to consolidate its influence in South Asia, creating new geopolitical challenges for India.

Understanding the Emerging Nexus

The trilateral arrangements—China-Pakistan-Bangladesh and China-Pakistan-Afghanistan—are part of China’s broader strategic framework to establish deeper regional roots. China drives the agenda, with Pakistan gaining strategic relevance, while Bangladesh and Afghanistan are drawn in for economic, political, and connectivity incentives.

Motivations Behind the Trilateralism

• China aims to dilute India’s regional influence, expand the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and leverage Pakistan to complicate India's neighbourhood strategy.
• Pakistan seeks Chinese economic and strategic backing to offset India, especially after facing diplomatic isolation globally.
• Bangladesh and Afghanistan are attracted by Chinese infrastructure investment, diplomatic weight, and development assurances in a multipolar Asia.

Historical Context

• 1962 Indo-China War: Set the foundation for Sino-Pakistan convergence as a counterweight to India.
• 1965 Siliguri Strategy: Pakistan attempted to encircle India with support from China, Nepal, and East Pakistan, a strategy echoing today.
• China’s Shielding at UNSC: Regular blocking of India’s attempts to designate Pakistan-based terrorists, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives, at the United Nations.
• Operation Sindoor, 2025: Pakistan deployed Chinese drones and radars; Beijing criticized India’s counterstrike, reaffirming its alliance.

Implications for India

• Security Threats: China-Pakistan cooperation now gains a regional sheen, legitimizing their cross-border strategies, e.g., the Pahalgam attack (2025).
• Diplomatic Setbacks: China’s increasing footprint in Dhaka and Kabul limits India’s traditional influence.
• Strategic Encroachment: Enhanced trilateralism boosts BRI's presence in South Asia, undercutting India-led alternatives like BBIN or the Chabahar corridor.

Impact on South Asian Stability

• Regional Polarization: Smaller nations are forced to balance between India and China, causing strategic fragmentation.
• Risk of Proxy Conflicts: Chinese cover may embolden Pakistan’s use of cross-border terrorism.
• Dilution of Regional Forums: SAARC and other platforms may become ineffective under Chinese influence.

Way Forward for India

• Assert Strategic Redlines: India must clearly articulate consequences for neighbours compromising its sovereignty.
• Deepen Regional Cooperation: Utilize BIMSTEC, IORA, and the Indo-Pacific frameworks to counterbalance Chinese presence.
• Economic Diplomacy: Increase targeted investments, credit lines, and market access to offer credible alternatives to BRI.
• Defence Engagement: Expand military and strategic ties with Bangladesh, Maldives, and Afghanistan.
• Narrative Building: Promote India as a cooperative, non-hegemonic regional partner to counter Chinese narratives.

Conclusion
The China-led trilateral dialogues mark a recalibration in South Asia’s geopolitical landscape aimed at constraining India’s rise. India’s response must be multifaceted—merging strategic assertiveness with regional diplomacy and economic outreach. A confident and inclusive India can safeguard its interests and lead a stable, multipolar South Asian order.